Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty.

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future.     

Food offering in jackdaws (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Corvus monedula</Emphasis>)

Food sharing among unrelated same-sex individuals has received considerable interest from primatologists and evolutionary biologists because of its apparent altruistic nature and implications for the evolution of complex social cognition. In contrast to primates, food sharing in birds has received relatively little attention. Here we describe three types of food sharing in jackdaws, with the initiative for the transfer either with the receiver or the giver. The latter situation is of particular interest because the food transfer takes place through active giving. Compared to primates, jackdaws show high rates of food sharing. Finally we discuss the implications of food sharing in jackdaws, and in birds in general.     

Nonparametric Ranked-set Sampling Confidence Intervals for Quantiles of a Finite Population

Ranked-set sampling from a finite population is considered in this paper. Three sampling protocols are described, and procedures for constructing nonparametric confidence intervals for a population quantile are developed. Algorithms for computing coverage probabilities for these confidence intervals are presented, and the use of interpolated confidence intervals is recommended as a means to approximately achieve coverage probabilities that cannot be achieved exactly. A simulation study based on finite populations of sizes 20, 30, 40, and 50 shows that the three sampling protocols follow a strict ordering in terms of the average lengths of the confidence intervals they produce. This study also shows that all three ranked-set sampling protocols tend to produce confidence intervals shorter than those produced by simple random sampling, with the difference being substantial for two of the protocols. The interpolated confidence intervals are shown to achieve coverage probabilities quite close to their nominal levels. Rankings done according to a highly correlated concomitant variable are shown to reduce the level of the confidence intervals only minimally. An example to illustrate the construction of confidence intervals according to this methodology is provided.     

Quantification of variability and uncertainty in air pollutant emission inventories: method and case study for utility NOx emissions

The quality of stationary source emission factors is typically described using data quality ratings, which provide no quantification of the precision of the emission factor for an average source, nor of the variability from one source to another within a category. Variability refers to actual differences caused by differences in feedstock composition, design, maintenance, and operation. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true emissions. A general methodology for the quantification of variability and uncertainty in emission factors, activity factors, and emission inventories (EIs) is described, featuring the use of bootstrap simulation and related techniques. The methodology is demonstrated via a case study for a selected example of NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants. A prototype software tool was developed to implement the methodology. The range of interunit variability in selected activity and emission factors was shown to be as much as a factor of 4, and the range of uncertainty in mean emissions is shown to depend on the interunit variability and sample size. The uncertainty in the total inventory of -16 to +19% was attributed primarily to one technology group, suggesting priorities for collecting data and improving the inventory. The implications for decision-making are discussed.     

Quantification of hourly variability in NO(x) emissions for baseload coal-fired power plants

The objectives of this paper are to (1) quantify variability in hourly utility oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission factors, activity factors, and total emissions; (2) investigate the autocorrelation structure and evaluate cyclic effects at short and long scales of the time series of total hourly emissions; (3) compare emissions for the ozone (O3) season versus the entire year to identify seasonal differences, if any; and (4) evaluate interannual variability. Continuous emissions monitoring data were analyzed for 1995 and 1998 for 32 units from nine baseload power plants in the Charlotte, NC, airshed. Unit emissions have a strong 24-hr cycle attributable primarily to the capacity factor. Typical ranges of the coefficient of variation for emissions at a given hour of the day were from 0.2 to 0.45. Little difference was found when comparing weekend emissions with the entire week or when comparing the O3 season with the entire year. There were substantial differences in the mean and standard deviation of emissions when comparing 1995 and 1998 data, indicative of the effect of retrofits of control technology during the intervening time. The wide range of variability and its autocorrelation should be accounted for when developing probabilistic utility emission inventories for analysis of near-term future episodes.     

Economists' opinions on environmental policy instruments: Analysis of a survey

Incentive instruments (effluent charges) are theoretically expected to be preferred to direct regulations (individual emission ceilings) by university-employed, theoretically inclined politically right-wing, professional economists living in a market-oriented country, ceteris paribus. Public sector employed, politically left-wing, professional economists living in a country with a long tradition of government involvement prefer the regulatory approach, ceteris paribus. These theoretical hypotheses tend to be supported by a bivariate probit analysis based on a survey of more than 1400 economists in five countries.     

Modeling Connectivity of Non‐floodplain Wetlands: Insights,Approaches, and Recommendations

Representing hydrologic connectivity of non‐floodplain wetlands (NFWs) to downstream waters in process‐based models is an emerging challenge relevant to many research, regulatory, and management activities. We review four case studies that utilize process‐based models developed to simulate NFW hydrology. Models range from a simple, lumped parameter model to a highly complex, fully distributed model. Across case studies, we highlight appropriate application of each model, emphasizing spatial scale, computational demands, process representation, and model limitations. We end with a synthesis of recommended “best modeling practices” to guide model application. These recommendations include: (1) clearly articulate modeling objectives, and revisit and adjust those objectives regularly; (2) develop a conceptualization of NFW connectivity using qualitative observations, empirical data, and process‐based modeling; (3) select a model to represent NFW connectivity by balancing both modeling objectives and available resources; (4) use innovative techniques and data sources to validate and calibrate NFW connectivity simulations; and (5) clearly articulate the limits of the resulting NFW connectivity representation. Our review and synthesis of these case studies highlights modeling approaches that incorporate NFW connectivity, demonstrates tradeoffs in model selection, and ultimately provides actionable guidance for future model application and development.     

Town-scale microbial sewer community and H2S emissions response to common chemical and biological dosing treatments

Controlling hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) odors and emissions using a single, effective treatment across a town-scale sewer network is a challenge faced by many water utilities. Implementation of a sewer diversion provided the opportunity to compare the effectiveness of magnesium hydroxide (Mg(OH)₂) and two biological dosing compounds (Bioproducts A and B), with different modes of action (MOA), in a field-test across a large sewer network. Mg(OH)₂ increases sewer pH allowing suppression of H₂S release into the sewer environment while Bioproduct A acts to disrupt microbial communication through quorum sensing (QS), reducing biofilm integrity. Bioproduct B reduces H₂S odors by scouring the sewer of fats, oils and grease (FOGs), which provide adhesion points for the microbial biofilm. Results revealed that only Mg(OH)₂ altered the microbial community structure and reduced H₂S emissions in a live sewer system, whilst Bioproducts A and B did not reduce H₂S emissions or have an observable effect on the composition of the microbial community at the dosed site. Study results recommend in situ testing of dosing treatments before implementation across an operational system.     

Altai pika (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ochotona alpina</Emphasis>) alarm calls: individual acoustic variation and the phenomenon of call-synchronous ear folding behavior

Non-hibernating pikas collect winter food reserves and store them in hay piles. Individualization of alarm calls might allow discrimination between colony members and conspecifics trying to steal food items from a colony pile. We investigated vocal posture, vocal tract length, and individual acoustic variation of alarm calls, emitted by wild-living Altai pikas Ochotona alpina toward a researcher. Recording started when a pika started calling and lasted as long as possible. The alarm call series of 442 individual callers from different colonies consisted of discrete short (0.073–0.157 s), high-frequency (7.31–15.46 kHz), and frequency-modulated calls separated by irregular intervals. Analysis of 442 discrete calls, the second of each series, revealed that 44.34% calls lacked nonlinear phenomena, in 7.02% nonlinear phenomena covered less than half of call duration, and in 48.64% nonlinear phenomena covered more than half of call duration. Peak frequencies varied among individuals but always fitted one of three maxima corresponding to the vocal tract resonance frequencies (formants) calculated for an estimated 45-mm oral vocal tract. Discriminant analysis using variables of 8 calls per series of 36 different callers, each from a different colony, correctly assigned over 90% of the calls to individuals. Consequently, Altai pika alarm calls are individualistic and nonlinear phenomena might further increase this acoustic individualization. Additionally, video analysis revealed a call-synchronous, very fast (0.13–0.23 s) folding, depression, and subsequent re-expansion of the pinna confirming an earlier report of this behavior that apparently contributes to protecting the hearing apparatus from damage by the self-generated high-intensity alarm calls.