From Global to Local: Providing Actionable Flood Forecast Information in a Cloud‐Based Computing Environment

Global and continental scale flood forecast provide coarse resolution flood forecast, but from the perspective of emergency management, flood warnings should be detailed and specific to local conditions. The desired refinement can be provided by the use of downscaling global scale models and through the use of distributed hydrologic models to produce a high‐resolution flood forecast. Three major challenges associated with transforming global flood forecasting to a local scale are addressed in this work. The first is using open‐source software tools to provide access to multiple data sources and lowering the barriers for users in management agencies at local level. This can be done through the Tethys Platform that enables web water resources modeling applications. The second is finding a practical solution for the computational requirements associated with running complex models and performing multiple simulations. This is done using Tethys Cluster that manages distributed and cloud computing resources as a companion to the Tethys Platform for web app development. The third challenge is discovering ways to downscale the forecasts from the global extent to the local context. Three modeling strategies have been tested to address this, including downscaling of coarse resolution global runoff models to high‐resolution stream networks and routing with Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID), the use of hierarchical Gridded Surface and Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) distributed models, and pre‐computed distributed GSSHA models.     

Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.     

A conceptual framework for analyzing deltas as coupled social–ecological systems: an example from the Amazon River Delta

At the nexus of watersheds, land, coastal areas, oceans, and human settlements, river delta regions pose specific challenges to environmental governance and sustainability. Using the Amazon Estuary-Delta region (AD) as our focus, we reflect on the challenges created by the high degree of functional interdependencies shaping social–ecological dynamics of delta regions. The article introduces the initial design of a conceptual framework to analyze delta regions as coupled social–ecological systems (SES). The first part of the framework is used to define a delta SES according to a problem and/or collective action dilemma. Five components can be used to define a delta SES: social–economic systems, governance systems, ecosystems-resource systems, topographic-hydrological systems, and oceanic-climate systems. These components are used in association with six types of telecoupling conditions: socio-demographic, economic, governance, ecological, material, and climatic-hydrological. The second part of the framework presents a strategy for the analysis of collective action problems in delta regions, from sub-delta/local to delta to basin levels. This framework is intended to support both case studies and comparative analysis. The article provides illustrative applications of the framework to the AD. First, we apply the framework to define and characterize the AD as coupled SES. We then utilize the framework to diagnose an example of collective action problem related to the impacts of urban growth, and urban and industrial pollution on small-scale fishing resources. We argue that the functional interdependencies characteristic of delta regions require new approaches to understand, diagnose, and evaluate the current and future impacts of social–ecological changes and potential solutions to the sustainability dilemmas of delta regions.     

Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM2.5 case study

Quantitative assessment of human exposures and health effects due to air pollution involve detailed characterization of impacts of air quality on exposure and dose. A key challenge is to integrate these three components on a consistent spatial and temporal basis taking into account linkages and feedbacks. The current state-of-practice for such assessments is to exercise emission, meteorology, air quality, exposure, and dose models separately, and to link them together by using the output of one model as input to the subsequent downstream model. Quantification of variability and uncertainty has been an important topic in the exposure assessment community for a number of years. Variability refers to differences in the value of a quantity (e.g., exposure) over time, space, or among individuals. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity. An emerging challenge is how to quantify variability and uncertainty in integrated assessments over the source-to-dose continuum by considering contributions from individual as well as linked components. For a case study of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in North Carolina during July 2002, we characterize variability and uncertainty associated with each of the individual concentration, exposure and dose models that are linked, and use a conceptual framework to quantify and evaluate the implications of coupled model uncertainties. We find that the resulting overall uncertainties due to combined effects of both variability and uncertainty are smaller (usually by a factor of 3–4) than the crudely multiplied model-specific overall uncertainty ratios. Future research will need to examine the impact of potential dependencies among the model components by conducting a truly coupled modeling analysis.     

Thymol as an alternative to pesticides: persistence and effects of Apilife Var on the phototactic behavior of the honeybee Apis mellifera

Thymol is a natural substance increasingly used as an alternative to pesticides in the fight against the Varroa destructor mite. Despite the effectiveness of this phenolic monoterpene against Varroa, few articles have covered the negative or side effects of thymol on bees. In a previous study, we have found an impairment of phototaxis in honeybees following application of sublethal doses of thymol—lower or equal to 100 ng/bee—under laboratory conditions. The present work shows the same behavioral effects on bees from hives treated with Apilife Var®, a veterinary drug containing 74 % thymol, with a decrease in phototactic behavior observed 1 day after treatment. Thus, thymol causes disruption of bee phototactic behavior both under laboratory conditions as well as in beehives. The bee exposure dose in treated hives was quantified using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC–MS), giving a median value of 4.3 μg per body 24 h after treatment, with 11 ng in the brain. The thymol level in 20 organic waxes from hives treated with Apilife Var® was also measured and showed that it persists in waxes (around 10 mg/kg) 1 year after treatment. Thus, in the light of (1) behavioral data obtained under laboratory conditions and in beehives, (2) the persistence of thymol in waxes, and (3) the high load on bees, it would appear important to study the long-term effects of thymol in beehives.     

Effects of glyphosate and foliar amendments on activity of microorganisms in the soybean rhizosphere

A field study was conducted to determine the effects of glyphosate on microbial activity in the rhizosphere of glyphosate-resistant (GR) soybean and to evaluate interactions with foliar amendments. Glyphosate at 0.84 kg ae ha(-1) was applied GR soybean at the V4-V5 development stages. Check treatments included a conventional herbicide tank mix (2003 study only) and no herbicides (hand-weeded). Ten days after herbicide application, a commercially available biostimulant and a urea solution (21.0% N) were applied to soybean foliage at 33.5 mL ha(-1) and 9.2 kg ha(-1), respectively. Soil and plant samples were taken 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 days after herbicide application then assayed for enzyme and respiration activities. Soil respiration and enzyme activity increased with glyphosate and foliar amendment applications during the 2002 growing season; however, similar increases were not observed in 2003. Contrasting cumulative rainfall between 2002 and 2003 likely accounted for differences in soil microbial activities. Increases in soil microbial activity in 2002 suggest that adequate soil water and glyphosate application acted together to increase microbial activity. Our study suggests that general soil microbial properties including those involving C and N transformations are not sensitive enough to detect effects of glyphosate on rhizosphere microbial activity. Measurements of soil-plant-microbe relationships including specific microbial groups (i.e., root-associated Fusarium spp.) are likely better indicators of impacts of glyphosate on soil microbial ecology.     

Wood pellet fly ash and bottom ash as an effective liming agent and nutrient source for rye grass (Lolium perenne L.) and oats (Avena sativa)

Fly ash (FA) and bottom ash (BA) from a softwood pellet boiler were characterized and evaluated as soil amendments. In a greenhouse study, two plant species (rye grass, Lolium perenne L. and oats, Avena sativa) were grown in three different treatments (1% FA, 1% BA, non-amended control) of a silty loam soil. Total concentrations of plant nutrients Ca, K, Mg, P and Zn in both ashes were elevated compared to conventional wood ash. Concentrations of Cd, Cr, Pb, Se and Zn were found to be elevated in the FA relative to BA and the non-amended soil. At 28 d, oat above-ground biomass was found to be significantly greater in soil amended with FA. Potassium and Mo plant tissue concentrations were significantly increased by addition of either ash, and FA significantly increased Zn tissue concentrations. Cadmium and Hg tissue concentrations were elevated in some cases. As soil amendments, either pellet ash is an effective liming agent and nutrient source, but high concentrations of Cd and Zn in FA may preclude its use as an agricultural soil amendment in some jurisdictions. Lower ash application rates than those used in this study (i.e. <1%) may still provide sufficient nutrients and effective neutralization of soil acidity.     

Comparative distribution, sourcing, and chemical behavior of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in an estuary environment

PCDD/F and PCB field data (1041 samples) in five media (dissolved, suspended sediment, bed sediment, catfish, and blue crab) were studied to explore dual contaminant patterns in the Houston Ship Channel, Texas, USA. PCDD/Fs showed greater concentration than PCBs in suspended sediments while PCBs were higher in apparent dissolved (truly dissolved + DOC-associated), fish, and crab. PCDD/Fs at nearly all locations contributed more strongly to dioxin-like toxicity. The fraction of PCB TEQ was, however, enriched in biotic over abiotic media due in large part to the presence of PCB 126, which was mostly undetected in water and sediment and yet exhibited a BAF three times greater than 2,3,7,8-TCDD. Dissolved-suspended sediment and suspended-bed sediment relationships showed that (1) observed apparent dissolved concentration differences (as fraction of total water were mean 10% PCDD/Fs and 63% PCBs) can reasonably be explained by a four-phase partition model (truly dissolved, DOC-associated, suspended OC, and suspended BC) for PCBs but not for PCDD/Fs and (2) the contaminants behaved similarly in bed to suspended sediment concentration ratios (C_bed/C_susp) upstream of a major confluence but not downstream. PCA-cluster analysis pointed to the possibility that suspended sediment PCB contamination originates from resuspended bed sediment while PCDD/Fs in suspended sediment originates more probably from other sediment sources such as upstream wash load or air deposition. Finally, examinations of a congener marker ratio (PCB 209/206) seemed to indicate that a source of pure PCB 209 may exist in bed sediment near Patrick Bayou though the source was not completely localized.     

Real-world in-use activity, fuel use, and emissions for nonroad construction vehicles: a case study for excavators

A study design was developed and demonstrated for deployment of a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) for excavators. Excavators are among the most commonly used vehicles in construction activities. The PEMS measured nitric oxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide, and opacity-based particulate matter. Data collection, screening, processing, and analysis protocols were developed to assure data quality and to quantify variability in vehicle fuel consumption and emissions rates. The development of data collection procedures was based on securing the PEMS while avoiding disruption to normal vehicle operations. As a result of quality assurance, approximately 90% of the attempted measurements resulted in valid data. On the basis of field data collected for three excavators, an average of 50% of the total nitric oxide emissions was associated with 29% of the time of operation, during which the average engine speed and manifold absolute pressure were significantly higher than corresponding averages for all data. Mass per time emission rates during non-idle modes (i.e., moving and using bucket) were on average 7 times greater than for the idle mode. Differences in normalized average rates were influenced more by intercycle differences than intervehicle differences. This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for intercycle variability in real-world in-use emissions to develop more accurate emission inventories. The data collection and analysis methodology demonstrated here is recommended for application to more vehicles to better characterize real-world vehicle activity, fuel use, and emissions for nonroad construction equipment.     

Characterization of real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions for selected motor graders fueled with petroleum diesel and B20 biodiesel

Motor graders are a common type of nonroad vehicle used in many road construction and maintenance applications. In-use activity, fuel use, and emissions were measured for six selected motor graders using a portable emission measurement system. Each motor grader was tested with petroleum diesel and B20 biodiesel. Duty cycles were quantified in terms of the empirical cumulative distribution function of manifold absolute pressure (MAP), which is an indicator of engine load. The motor graders were operated under normal duty cycles for road maintenance and repair at various locations in Wake and Nash Counties in North Carolina. Approximately 3 hr of quality-assured, second-by-second data were obtained during each test. An empirical modal-based model of vehicle fuel use and emissions was developed, based on stratifying the data with respect to ranges of normalized MAP, to enable comparisons between duty cycles, motor graders, and fuels. Time-based emission factors were found to increase monotonically with MAP. Fuel-based emission factors were mainly sensitive to differences between idle and non-idle engine operation. Cycle average emission factors were estimated for road "resurfacing," "roading," and "shouldering" activities. On average, the use of B20 instead of petroleum diesel leads to a negligible decrease of 1.6% in nitric oxide emission rate, and decreases of 19-22% in emission rates of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. Emission rates decrease significantly when comparing newer engine tier vehicles to older ones. Significant reductions in tailpipe emissions accrue especially from the use of B20 and adoption of newer vehicles.