Micro-level safety risk assessment model for a two-lane heterogeneous traffic environment in a developing country: A comparative crash probability modeling approach

Introduction: There have been a number of studies that have led to the development of safety risk assessment models to quantify the probability of crash frequencies on roadway facilities (both at micro- and macro-levels), over a specified time period. However, past research has rarely focused on heterogeneous traffic conditions in developing countries. Method: This paper puts forward several models related to the traditional count approach to estimate crash frequency at a micro-level in a non-lane based bi-directional heterogeneous traffic environment. The paper shows the results of dispersion, zero-inflation, and random heterogeneity effects of different exogenous factors by comparing Poisson (P); Negative Binomial (NB); random and fixed parameter Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP); and Latent Class Models (LCM). The empirical analysis is based on data from a section of a major national highway in Bangladesh. The performance of the models was validated using different statistical goodness-of-fit measures that compared the estimated and observed average crash frequencies at individual locations. With the identification of the most significant influencing factors, the paper discusses the practical policy implications using partial effects analysis and spatial distribution. Results: It was found that the Zero-Inflated Random Parameter model gives a slightly better statistical fit when compared to alternative approaches. Practical applications: This micro-level modeling approach would be useful to identify significant crash risk factors; to prioritize road sections according to their safety level; to select site-specific appropriate counter-measures; and devise proactive target oriented safety management strategies. Thus, the results shown here could be a point of reference in the planning, designing, maintaining, and managing two-lane highway sections in developing countries.     

Overcoming barriers to sustainability by combining conceptual,visual, and networking systems

Sustainability challenges rarely align with the conventional boundaries of our disciplines, institutions and means of communication. To address these challenges amid real-world complexity, we need to think holistically and collaborate across disciplines. In this paper, we synthesise three themes: (1) more integrated conceptual frameworks; (2) digital visual communication which provides fluid expression of complex ideas and perceptions; and (3) online networks which can empower sustainability initiatives and communicate them across social and institutional barriers at a global scale. Each of these tools can help to overcome persistent barriers to sustainability. When used together, they provide a strategic basis for the design of digital collaboration platforms for addressing sustainability challenges. Using design thinking, we developed a Synergy Map which identifies relationships among a number of barriers to sustainability and conceptual and digital tools which help to address them. The Map identifies the potential for synthesising these tools into effective digital artefacts. We provide several examples and identify characteristics of particular value for overcoming barriers to sustainability. Combining new theoretical developments in sustainability sciences with recent advances in communication and networking technologies offers substantial potential for advancing sustainability on multiple fronts.     

Participation in driver education/training courses during graduated driver licensing,and the effect of a time-discount on subsequent traffic offenses: Findings from the New Zealand Drivers Study

IntroductionThe New Zealand GDL includes a time-discount at the restricted license stage, for attendance at an approved driver education course. This is despite international evidence showing that earlier licensure associated with a time-discount can increase risk for newly licensed drivers.ObjectiveTo examine participation in driver education courses and especially those that qualify for a time-discount; compare the profiles of course participants with non-participants; examine reasons for participation; and examine the association between a time-discount and traffic offenses once fully licensed.MethodThis study was based on the New Zealand Drivers Study (NZDS), a prospective cohort study of newly licensed drivers. Data on driver education courses were obtained at the full license interview (n = 1763), driver license and traffic offense data from the NZ Driver Licence Registry, and other data at the NZDS interviews.Results94% had heard of and 49% (n = 868) participated in a defensive driving course (DDC). No other course had more than 1% participation. Compared with the others, the DDC group were young, non-Māori, and from an area of relatively low deprivation. Through GDL, the DDC group were relatively more compliant with the conditions, and less likely to crash or receive a traffic offense notice. The groups did not differ on personality, alcohol and drug use. The reason most (85%) attended a DDC was to get their full license sooner; 86% (n = 748) received a time-discount. The time-discount group were 40% more likely to receive a traffic offense notice on their full license; this reduced to 10% after controlling for other factors.Conclusion and practical implicationsThe results of this study, when viewed in conjunction with other NZ crash evidence, indicate that a time-discount should not be given for completing a DDC or Street Talk course.     

Recognition schemes in tourism—from ‘eco’ to ‘sustainability’?

Proliferation of voluntary instruments such as eco-labelling schemes and codes of conduct for tourism has been characterized by a strong environmental focus. This paper discusses the feasibility of creating recognition schemes that could address not only the ecological implications, but also the social and economic impacts of tourism activities.The analysis was performed by using a case study of the ‘Certification for Sustainable Tourism’ (CST), a labelling programme developed in Costa Rica, which was found to address not only environmental performance, but also cultural, economic and social impacts of tourism activities.     

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors’ own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.     

Community-based Environmental Planning: Operational Dilemmas,Planning Principles and Possible Remedies

The operational dilemmas and challenges associated with the practice of community-based environmental planning (CBEP) are examined. The paper examines the frequently invoked ‘bottom-up’ versus ‘top-down’ dichotomy and argues that environmental governance is more complex, dynamic and multi-scalar than this simple dichotomy implies. The paper identifies six key problems with the CBEP approach: (i) the conceptualization of ‘community’ which poorly accounts for difference; (ii) problems of inequality; (iii) the organizational capacity and efficacy of community groups; (iv) the scale of CBEP; (v) the types of knowledge utilized by communities in environmental management; and (vi) the potential for parochial concerns to dominate the priorities and agenda of community organizations. The paper analyses each of these issues, identifies planning principles that may aid resolution, and suggests possible remedies.     

On measuring wealth: a case study on the state of Queensland

In order for policy makers to plan effectively for sustainable development, there is a need for measures of welfare that consider changes in the natural capital stock. Current measures based on conventional national accounting are flawed because they are based solely on flow measures and do not account for environmental effects. In this paper, we use an expanded measure of wealth to estimate the value of natural capital for Queensland. The state's stock of natural capital is valued at A dollar 355.6 billion, of which non-timber forest resources account for 45.3%, ecosystem services 20.0%, and mineral resources 17.6%. This figure is a conservative estimate of the true value since some significant components such as the ecological and life-support functions of the environment are excluded. The estimates highlight the relative importance of different forms of natural capital and can be used to draw the attention of policymakers to the need to give adequate weight to the value of such services in decision-making processes.