气象因子对臭氧的影响及其在空气质量预报中的应用

为提高重庆市臭氧(O_3)预报准确率,利用2013—2015年5—10月O_3监测数据和气象数据,通过主成分分析、逐步回归分析等方法,确定了影响重庆O_3浓度的主要气象因素为最高温度、温差、太阳辐射、降水量、相对湿度、水气压和压差;通过基于O_3污染水平相似的主要气象控制因子筛选和最优组合的预报结果优化方法,提高了O_3预报准确率,使2016年5—8月O_3的AQI类别预报准确率由57.7%增至72.4%,O_3超标的预报准确率由38%增至46%。     

On the origins of night-time NO at a rural measurement site

Mixing ratios for NO and NO₂ were measured during 1980/1981 at Deuselbach, a rural site in Germany. The data are analyzed with regard to the occurrence of nocturnal NO signals and their origins. Anthropogenic influences arising from road traffic and home heating activities are identified by their dependence on wind direction. An additional non-directional component is found to exist. It shows up most frequently in summer and when it occurs, the NO mixing ratio increases with rising temperature indicating a biological origin of night-time NO. The temporal behavior of night-time NO is usually correlated with that of CO₂ but anticorrelated to that of O₃. This shows that NO is brought upwards to the air intake of the NO_x monitor from lower levels and that the source of the non-directional component of nocturnal NO is the earth's surface. The release of NO from soils is known from other work and this process is probably also responsible for the present observations. A flux estimate agrees with soil fluxes reported by other authors. The accumulation of NO in the surface air layer under stagnant conditions leads to the appearance of a morning peak of NO after sunrise when increased vertical mixing brings NO rich air up to the monitoring level. During summer, the morning peak may override the NO peak expected to occur at noon due to the photodissociation of NO₂.     

Numerical simulation of air pollution in urban areas: Model development

A three-dimensional, grid-based numerical air pollution model for the estimation of air pollutant concentrations in an urban area is developed. Based on the continuity equation, the modeling system incorporates the combined influences of advective transport, turbulent diffusion, chemical transformation, source emissions and surface removal of air contaminants. Recent developments in plume rise and plume penetration processes, objective wind field analysis procedures and numerical solution techniques incorporated into the model are described.     

A Framework and Key Questions for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

There is a critical need to collectively understand, to develop adaptation options to enhance the benefits, and to reduce the social and economic vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change. This paper uses key questions to help build a framework for adaptation by first organizing the questions into adaptation science, management and option components, including their respective sub-categories. The process of adaptation depends on many factors, including who or what adapts, what they adapt to, how they adapt and what and how resources are used. This conceptual model is designed to organize concepts regarding adaptation, to help stimulate ideas, and to explore the linkages among parts of the adaptation cycle. Predictive models need to be developed to determine the outcomes of planned adaptation strategies. For the best and most realistic evaluation of climate problems, adaptation and impacts should be considered together. This joint approach improves the assessment of the significance and dangers of the current and future climate, as well as the determination of solutions (e.g., how to prepare for a changing climate) and their priorities. Challenges of adaptive management are discussed in terms of a framework with linkages to adaptation science and options. Adaptation research and applications work continue to build on the foundation of science and management frameworks to address the risks and uncertainties in the decision-making process and to identify adaptation options.     

Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Methodological Issues

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research communities. This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science.     

Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation to Drought in the Senegal River Basin

The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification.     

Simulations of stratospheric to tropospheric transport during the tropical cyclone Marlene event

Enhanced ozone values observed in the upper troposphere near intense tropical cyclones have raised the question of the role of stratospheric–tropospheric exchange. The dynamical mechanisms involved in the enhanced ozone values of 6 April 1995 observed at Reunion and associated with the tropical cyclone Marlene could not be explained by ECMWF meteorological analysis with 1.125° horizontal resolution. A previous study based on the ECHAM model has demonstrated the impact of biomass burning, but of limited amplitude (<60–80 ppbv max). In this paper, the upper tropospheric ozone enhancement on the periphery of Marlene has been studied with a mesoscale model (MESO-NH). This model is able to reproduce a stratospheric PV filament into the troposphere, crossing the isentropes to the 350 K level. The ageostrophic circulation associated with divergence zones that have induced vertical movements has been shown. Further, the influence of vertical wind shear, evident in both the mesoscale analysis and in the idealized HURRICANE tropical cyclone model, also contributes to our understanding of this downward transport process.     

Evaluation of air quality models for the simulation of a high ozone episode in the Houston metropolitan area

A high ozone event in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria area was utilized to study the shortcomings of the current air quality models. To improve the baseline simulations with the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) for developing the state implementation plan, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) imputed emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs) by scaling the amount of fugitive emissions of olefins to co-emitted NO_x from selected point sources, effectively multiplying by 3–12 times over the regular inventory values. In this paper, CAMx and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model were used to determine if the imputed HRVOC emissions were consistent with the observed atmospheric conditions. With the base emissions, CMAQ and CAMx both with the Carbon-Bond 4 (CB-4) mechanism simulated similar ozone concentrations. But with the imputed HRVOC emissions, CMAQ predicted lower ozone peaks than CAMx in the vicinity and downwind of the Ship Channel and other highly HRVOC-rich areas. Based on analyses of sensitivity simulations of CMAQ with different emission inputs and vertical diffusion algorithms in the model, we found that the modeled atmosphere lacked reactivity to produce the observed high ozone event. Although the imputed HRVOC emissions improved ozone prediction at the surface sites, but the ethylene concentrations were not consistent with the measurements at the super sites (La Porte and Clinton) and by NOAA aircraft. Several sensitivity tests designed to provide additional radicals into the system and other research results suggested that the lack of reactivity may need to be corrected by targeted, and probably of episodic, increase of HRVOC emissions, from the sources in the Houston Ship Channel. Additional investigation of the ozone production efficiency for different chemical mechanisms is necessary to pinpoint the emissions uncertainty issues.     

Temporal and spatial relationships in fine particle strong acidity, sulphate, PM1O, and PM2.5 across multiple canadian locations

The Canadian Acid Aerosol Measurement Program (CAAMP) was established in 1992 to gain a better understanding of the atmospheric behaviour of fine particle strong acidity (“acid aerosols”) and to facilitate an assessment of the potential health risks associated with acid aerosols and particles in general. During 1992. 1993 and 1994, annular denuder and filter measurements were taken at four sites in Ontario, two in Quebec, three in the Atlantic Provinces and one in the greater Vancouver area. Mean fine particle sulphate concentrations (SO₄²⁻) were highest in southern Ontario (annual average ranged from 40–70 nmol m⁻³), lowest at a site in the Vancouver area (average = 16 nmol m⁻³) and second lowest in rural Nova Scotia. However, mean fine particle strong acid concentrations (H⁺) were geographically different. The highest mean concentrations were at the east coast sites (annual average of up to 30 nmol m⁻³). Acidities were lower in areas where the fine particle acidity experienced greater neutralization from reaction with ammonia. This included the major urban centres (i.e. Toronto and Montréal) and areas with greater amounts of agricultural activity, as in rural southern Ontario. On average, ambient concentrations of fine and coarse particle mass were larger in the urban areas and also in areas where SO₄²⁻ levels were higher. All the particle components were episodic. However, compared to SO₄²⁻ and fine particles (PM_2.5 or PM_2.1, depending upon inlet design), episodes of H⁺ tended to be less frequent and of shorter duration, particularly in Ontario. Saint John, New Brunswick, had the highest mean annual H⁺ concentration, which was 30 nmol m⁻³. H⁺ episodes (24 h concentration > 100 nmol m⁻³) were also the most frequent at this location. The high levels in Saint John were partially due to local sulphur dioxide sources and heterogeneous chemistry occurring in fog, which, on average, led to a 50% enhancement in sulphate, relative to upwind conditions.There was a substantial amount of intersite correlation in the day to day variations in H⁺, SO₄²⁻ , PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ (fine + coarse particles) concentrations, which is due to the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology and the relatively long atmospheric lifetime of fine particles. Sulphate was the most regionally homogenous species. Pearson correlation coefficients comparing SO₄²⁻ between sites ranged from 0.6 to 0.9, depending on site separation and lag time. In many cases, particle episodes were observed to move across the entire eastern portion of Canada with about a two-day lag between the SO₄²⁻ levels in southern Ontario and in southern Nova Scotia.