Population viability analysis of white sturgeon and other riverine fishes

Many utilities face conflicts between two goals: generating cost-efficient hydropower and protecting riverine fishes. Research to develop ecological simulation tools that can evaluate alternative mitigation strategies in terms of their benefits to fish populations is vital to informed decision-making. In this paper, we describe our approach to population viability analysis of riverine fishes in general and Snake River white sturgeon in particular. We are finding that the individual-based modeling approach used in previous in-stream flow applications is well suited to addressing questions about the viability of species of concern for several reasons. Chief among these are: (1) the ability to represent the effects of individual variation in life history characteristics on predicted population viability; (2) the flexibility needed to quantify the ecological benefits of alternative flow management options by representing spatial and temporal variation in flow and temperature; and (3) the flexibility needed to quantify the ecological benefits of non-flow related manipulations (i.e., passage, screening, and hatchery supplementation).     

The nature of safety culture: a review of theory and research

This paper reviews the literature on safety culture and safety climate. The main emphasis is on applied research customary in the social psychological or organisational psychological traditions. Although safety culture and climate are generally acknowledged to be important concepts, not much consensus has been reached on the cause, the content and the consequences of safety culture and climate in the past 20 years. Moreover, there is an overall lack of models specifying either the relationship of both concepts with safety and risk management or with safety performance. In this paper, safety culture and climate will be differentiated according to a general framework based on work by Schein (1992 Schein) on organisational culture. This framework distinguishes three levels at which organisational culture can be studied — basis assumptions, espoused values and artefacts. At the level of espoused values we find attitudes, which are equated with safety climate. The basic assumptions, however, form the core of the culture. It is argued that these basic assumptions do not have to be specifically about safety, although it is considered a good sign if they are. It is concluded that safety climate might be considered an alternative safety performance indicator and that research should focus on its scientific validity. More important, however, is the assessment of an organisation's basic assumptions, since these are assumed to be explanatory to its attitudes.     

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands.     

The impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions on CMAQ predictions of tropospheric ozone over the continental United States

A sensitivity study is performed to examine the impact of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on the NOAA-EPA operational Air Quality Forecast Guidance over continental USA. We examined six LBCS: the fixed profile LBC, three global LBCs, and two ozonesonde LBCs for summer 2006. The simulated results from these six runs are compared to IONS ozonesonde and surface ozone measurements from August 1 to 5, 2006. The choice of LBCs can affect the ozone prediction throughout the domain, and mainly influence the predictions in upper altitude or near inflow boundaries, such as the US west coast and the northern border. Statistical results shows that the use of global model predictions for LBCs could improve the correlation coefficients of surface ozone prediction over the US west coast, but could also increase the ozone mean bias in most regions of the domain depending on global models. In this study, the use of the MOZART (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers) prediction for CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) LBC shows a better surface ozone prediction than that with fixed LBC, especially over the US west coast. The LBCs derived from ozonesonde measurements yielded better O₃ correlations in the upper troposphere.     

Trauma and short-fuse weather warning perceptions

The purpose of this research was to assess the importance of psychological trauma in understanding reactions to short lead time weather warnings. The research consisted of two case studies, one in Denver, Colorado and the other in Austin, Texas. A total of 61 individuals with 9 or greater traumas were compared to 281 non-trauma exposed individuals. Results demonstrated significant differences on questions related to general beliefs about flash floods and warning perceptions as well as reported anticipated actions during a flash flood at home. Results suggest high trauma exposure may lead to more threat sensitivity and a higher probability of initiated action in a home-based flash flood.     

Boundary impulse response functions in a century-long eddying global ocean simulation

Results are presented from a century-long 1/10° global ocean simulation that included a suite of age-related passive tracers. In particular, an ensemble of five global Boundary Impulse Response functions (BIRs, which are statistically related to the more fundamental Transit Time Distributions, TTDs) was included to quantify the character of the TTD when mesoscale eddies are explicitly simulated rather than parameterized. We also seek to characterize the level of variability in water mass ventilation timescales arising from eddy motions. The statistics of the BIR timeseries are described, and it is shown that the greatest variability occurs at early times, followed by a remarkable conformity between ensemble members at longer timescales. The statistics of the first moment of the BIRs are presented, and the upper-ocean spatial distribution of the standard deviation of the first moment of the BIRs discussed. It is shown that variations in the BIR first moment with respect to the ensemble average are typically only a few percent, and that the variability slightly decreases with increasing ensemble size, implying that only a few ensemble members may be necessary for a reasonable estimate of the TTD. The completeness of the estimated TTD, i.e., the degree to which the century long BIRs capture the range of global ocean ventilation timescales is discussed, and the potential for extrapolation of the BIR to longer times is briefly explored. Several regional BIRs were also simulated in order to quantify the relative abundance of fluid parcels that originate in specific geographical locations.     

Estimating recreational trout fishing damages in Montana's Clark Fork River basin: summary of a natural resource damage assessment

This paper summarizes a natural resource damage assessment for the State of Montana. Mining wastes have caused significant reductions in trout stocks in a 145-mile stretch of Montana's Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork River. To estimate economic damages from decreases in catch rates, we develop and estimate an individual-based utility-theoretic model of where and how often an angler will fish as a function of travel costs, catch rates, and other influential characteristics of the site and individuals. The model includes resident and nonresident anglers who currently fish in Montana, and allows them to have different preferences. Demand parameters and expected catch rates are simultaneously estimated. The value of time is endogenously estimated as a proportion of the wage rate. Catch rates are linked to trout stocks through a stock-catch function. Collection of the angler data involved a three-step process: anglers were intercepted at 26 study sites, a subsample of anglers was selected to reflect the population trip-taking proportions to the study sites, and these anglers received follow-up surveys through the fishing season. Avidity weights are used to correct for the higher level of avidity inherent in intercept samples.     

Prescribed burns and wildfires in Colorado: impacts of mitigation measures on indoor air particulate matter

Wildfires and prescribed burns are receiving increasing attention as sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The goal of this research project was to understand the impact of mitigation strategies for residences impacted by scheduled prescribed burns and wildfires. Pairs of residences were solicited to have PM2.5 concentrations monitored inside and outside of their houses during four fires. The effect of using air cleaners on indoor PM2.5 was investigated, as well as the effect of keeping windows closed. Appropriately sized air cleaners were provided to one of each pair of residences; occupants of all of the residences were asked to keep windows shut and minimize opening of exterior doors. Additionally, residents were asked to record all of the activities that may be a source of particulate matter, such as cooking and cleaning. Measurements were made during one prescribed burn and three wildfires during the 2002 fire season. Outdoor 24-hr average PM2.5 concentrations ranging from 6 to 38 microg/m3 were measured during the fires, compared with levels of 2-5 microg/m3 during background measurements when no fires were burning. During the fires, PM2.5 was < 3 microg/m3 inside all of the houses with air cleaners installed. This corresponds with a decrease of 63-88% in homes with the air cleaners operating when compared with homes without air cleaners. In the homes without the air cleaners, measured indoor concentrations were 58-100% of the concentrations measured outdoors.     

Sensitivity and acclimation to UV radiation of zoospores from five species of Laminariales from the Arctic

Spores of five Laminariales from Arctic Spitsbergen were exposed in the laboratory to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; 400–700 nm), PAR+UVA radiation (UVAR; 320–400 nm) and PAR+UVAR+UVB radiation (UVBR; 280–320 nm). Subsequently, germination was monitored over periods of 3, 6 and 9 days. The investigated species were the upper sublittoral Saccorhiza dermatodea, the upper to mid-sublittoral Alaria esculenta and Laminaria digitata, the mid-sublittoral L. saccharina and the lower sublittoral L. solidungula. The germination capacity decreased sharply after 16 h exposure to PAR+UVAR+UVBR in all species. However, S. dermatodea was able to recover from the damaging effects of UVBR. There was also a small increase in percentage germination of A. esculenta 6–9 days after the treatment. No recovery was evident in the other species. After 8 h exposure to PAR+UVA+UVB, L. digitata recovered completely, and L. saccharina and L. solidungula, partially. The only species susceptible to PAR+UVAR was L. solidungula. One prominent cytological feature of UVR-exposed spores was the enlargement of phenolic vesicles (physodes) (particularly seen in S. dermatodea and A. esculenta), which may have a protective function against UVR. Pilot experiments under natural irradiance conditions indicate that the PAR component of solar radiation exerts an additional stress. Overall the data show that zoospores of the species from the upper sublittoral are less sensitive to UVR or have the capacity to recover from UV stress in contrast to species from deeper waters, probably due to their UV protective and repair capabilities.Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe     

Muscle esterase variation and size variation in the sand launce Ammodytes dubius

Esterase variation detected in homogenates of muscle tissue taken from the sand launce Ammodytes dubius in April, 1970 and 1971 is described. Eight alleles were found segregating at a single locus, and the frequencies of these alleles were homogenous in population samples taken on the Emerald Bank, off Nova Scotia, Canada, in successive years. When ordered by their electrophoretic mobility, the profile of the frequencies of these alleles was unimodal and symmetric. In both of the population samples, there were significant excesses of homozygotes and deficencies of heterozygotes. There was an association between genotype and size of individuals among homozygous genotypes; individual homozygous for the most common, intermediately-migrating allele were larger than homozygotes bearing alleles with relatively fast or slow mobilities.