基于地理加权回归模型评估土地利用对地表水质的影响

针对传统线性回归模型大多忽视空间数据局部变化特征这一缺陷,引入地理加权回归模型(GWR)用于评估土地利用对地表水质的影响,分析了不同子流域内两者关系出现空间变化的规律并阐释了原因.同时,对比了GWR模型与普通最小二乘模型(OLS)的校正R2、Akaike信息准则(AICc)及残差的空间自相关指数(Moran's I),验证了GWR模型在预测精度和处理空间自相关过程中是否优于OLS模型.结果表明,同一土地利用类型对水质的影响随空间位置的改变而发生方向或大小的变化.以温瑞塘河流域总氮(TN)与农用地的关系为例,从GWR模型局部回归系数的方向分析,两者关系表现为农村正、城区负的现象,从大小分析,旧城区TN与农用地回归系数的绝对值高于其它区域;在溶解氧(DO)与人口密度所构建的GWR模型中,两者关系在整个研究区域内均表现为负值,与OLS结果吻合,从回归系数的大小分析,人口密度对DO的作用在郊区及农村更为显著.针对此类关系出现空间变化的原因分析表明,相邻子流域土地利用百分比的改变及水体主要污染源的不同,是导致土地利用对水质作用发生变化的根本因素.最后,对比所构建的80个GWR与OLS模型校正R2、AICc指标,验证了GWR作为一种局部统计模型,其预测精度优于OLS等传统全局模型且更能反映实际空间特征.     

IKK inhibition prevents PM2.5-exacerbated cardiac injury in mice with type 2 diabetes

Epidemiological studies have found that individuals with diabetes mellitus(DM) display an increased susceptibility for adverse cardiovascular outcomes when exposed to air pollution.This study was conducted to explore the potential mechanism linking ambient fine particles(PM2.5) and heart injury in a Type 2 DM(T2DM) animal model. The KKay mouse, an animal model of T2DM, was exposed to concentrated ambient PM2.5 or filtered air for 8 weeks via a versatile aerosol exposure and concentrator system. Simultaneously, an inhibitor of IκB kinase-2(IKK-a)(IMD-0354), which is a blocker of nuclear factor κB(NF-κB)nuclear translocation, was administrated by intracerebroventricular injection(ICV) to regulate the NF-êB pathway. The results showed that ambient PM2.5 induced the increase of, NF-êB, cyclooxygenase-2(COX-2) and mitogen activated protein kinase(MAPK) expression in cardiac tissue, and that IMD-0354 could alleviate the inflammatory injury. The results suggested that the NF-êB pathway plays an important role in mediating the PM2.5-induced cardiovascular injury in the T2DM model. Inhibiting NFκB may be a therapeutic option in air-pollution-exacerbated cardiovascular injury in diabetes mellitus.     

Ploidy-, gender-, and dose-dependent alteration of selected biomarkers in Clarias gariepinus treated with benzo[a]pyrene

Naturally-occurring and artificially-induced polyploids have been documented in various fish species but to date no comparison has been reported of the impacts of ploidy on fish biomarker responses to organic pollutants. This study describes effects of ploidy, gender, and dose on biliary fluorescent aromatic compound (FAC) concentrations, hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) activities in one of the most commonly cultured warm-water species, the African catfish Clarias gariepinus. Recently matured male and female diploid and triploid fish were intraperitoneally (i.p.) injected with 0, 5 or 25 mg/kg benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) and liver and gallbladder were sampled 48 hr later. No significant differences were found between ploidies in bile concentrations of 7,8 dihydrodiolbenzo[a]pyrene (7,8D BaP), 1-hydroxybenzo[a]pyrene (1-OH BaP) or 3-hydroxybenzo[a]pyrene (3-OH BaP). However, concentrations of the biliary FACs did differ between males and females at different dose of injection with generally higher concentrations in females at the low dose of BaP and higher concentrations in males at the higher BaP concentration. Hepatic EROD activity did not exhibit gender-dependent difference, whereas it was significantly higher in triploids than diploids. GST activities were not significantly influenced by any of the tested factors. This work advanced our understanding of the role of ploidy, gender, and dose in biotransformation of pollutants in fish.     

Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.     

Ten ways remote sensing can contribute to conservation

In an effort to increase conservation effectiveness through the use of Earth observation technologies, a group of remote sensing scientists affiliated with government and academic institutions and conservation organizations identified 10 questions in conservation for which the potential to be answered would be greatly increased by use of remotely sensed data and analyses of those data. Our goals were to increase conservation practitioners’ use of remote sensing to support their work, increase collaboration between the conservation science and remote sensing communities, identify and develop new and innovative uses of remote sensing for advancing conservation science, provide guidance to space agencies on how future satellite missions can support conservation science, and generate support from the public and private sector in the use of remote sensing data to address the 10 conservation questions. We identified a broad initial list of questions on the basis of an email chain‐referral survey. We then used a workshop‐based iterative and collaborative approach to whittle the list down to these final questions (which represent 10 major themes in conservation): How can global Earth observation data be used to model species distributions and abundances? How can remote sensing improve the understanding of animal movements? How can remotely sensed ecosystem variables be used to understand, monitor, and predict ecosystem response and resilience to multiple stressors? How can remote sensing be used to monitor the effects of climate on ecosystems? How can near real‐time ecosystem monitoring catalyze threat reduction, governance and regulation compliance, and resource management decisions? How can remote sensing inform configuration of protected area networks at spatial extents relevant to populations of target species and ecosystem services? How can remote sensing‐derived products be used to value and monitor changes in ecosystem services? How can remote sensing be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation efforts? How does the expansion and intensification of agriculture and aquaculture alter ecosystems and the services they provide? How can remote sensing be used to determine the degree to which ecosystems are being disturbed or degraded and the effects of these changes on species and ecosystem functions?     

An integrated impact assessment and weighting methodology: evaluation of the environmental consequences of computer display technology substitution

Computer display technology is currently in a state of transition, as the traditional technology of cathode ray tubes is being replaced by liquid crystal display flat-panel technology. Technology substitution and process innovation require the evaluation of the trade-offs among environmental impact, cost, and engineering performance attributes. General impact assessment methodologies, decision analysis and management tools, and optimization methods commonly used in engineering cannot efficiently address the issues needed for such evaluation. The conventional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) process often generates results that can be subject to multiple interpretations, although the advantages of the LCA concept and framework obtain wide recognition. In the present work, the LCA concept is integrated with Quality Function Deployment (QFD), a popular industrial quality management tool, which is used as the framework for the development of our integrated model. The problem of weighting is addressed by using pairwise comparison of stakeholder preferences. Thus, this paper presents a new integrated analytical approach, Integrated Industrial Ecology Function Deployment (I2-EFD), to assess the environmental behavior of alternative technologies in correlation with their performance and economic characteristics. Computer display technology is used as the case study to further develop our methodology through the modification and integration of various quality management tools (e.g., process mapping, prioritization matrix) and statistical methods (e.g., multi-attribute analysis, cluster analysis). Life cycle thinking provides the foundation for our methodology, as we utilize a published LCA report, which stopped at the characterization step, as our starting point. Further, we evaluate the validity and feasibility of our methodology by considering uncertainty and conducting sensitivity analysis.     

Predicting Opportunities for Greening and Patterns of Vegetation on Private Urban Lands

This paper examines predictors of vegetative cover on private lands in Baltimore, Maryland. Using high-resolution spatial data, we generated two measures: “possible stewardship,” which is the proportion of private land that does not have built structures on it and hence has the possibility of supporting vegetation, and “realized stewardship,” which is the proportion of possible stewardship land upon which vegetation is growing. These measures were calculated at the parcel level and averaged by US Census block group. Realized stewardship was further defined by proportion of tree canopy and grass. Expenditures on yard supplies and services, available by block group, were used to help understand where vegetation condition appears to be the result of current activity, past legacies, or abandonment. PRIZM™ market segmentation data were tested as categorical predictors of possible and realized stewardship and yard expenditures. PRIZM™ segmentations are hierarchically clustered into 5, 15, and 62 categories, which correspond to population density, social stratification (income and education), and lifestyle clusters, respectively. We found that PRIZM 15 best predicted variation in possible stewardship and PRIZM 62 best predicted variation in realized stewardship. These results were further analyzed by regressing each dependent variable against a set of continuous variables reflective of each of the three PRIZM groupings. Housing age, vacancy, and population density were found to be critical determinants of both stewardship metrics. A number of lifestyle factors, such as average family size, marriage rates, and percentage of single-family detached homes, were strongly related to realized stewardship. The percentage of African Americans by block group was positively related to realized stewardship but negatively related to yard expenditures.     

Cell-free DNA fetal fraction in twin gestations in single-nucleotide polymorphism-based noninvasive prenatal screening

Objectives

The performance of noninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) for fetal aneuploidy in twin pregnancies is dependent on the amount of placentally derived cell-free DNA, the “fetal fraction (FF),” present in maternal plasma. We report FF values in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) pregnancies.

Methods

We reviewed FF in pregnancies at 10 to 20 completed weeks gestational age based on single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based NIPS where zygosity was routinely established in twin pregnancies. The cohort included 121 446 (96.3%) singleton, 1454 (1.2%) MZ, and 3161 (2.5%) DZ pregnancies. For DZ twins, individual FFs were measured.

Results

Combined FF for DZ and MZ fetuses were 35% and 26% greater than singletons, respectively. The individual FF contributions from each fetus in DZ twins were, on average, 32% less than singletons. FF in DZ twin pairs were moderately correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient.66). When a threshold of 2.8% FF was applied to define uninterpretable results, 1.7% (2102/121 446) of singletons, 0.8% (11/1454) of MZ pairs, and 5.6% (178/3161) of DZ pairs were uninterpretable.

Conclusion

For optimal aneuploidy NIPS in twin pregnancies, zygosity should be established and in DZ twins FF for both fetuses should be determined to identify those cases where results can be reliably interpreted.     

An Edge Effect Caused by Adult Corn-Rootworm Beetles on Sunflowers in Tallgrass Prairie Remnants

Abstract: The once-extensive tallgrass prairie community of North America has been reduced to small remnants, many of which are surrounded by intensive corn (   Zea mays ) agriculture. We investigated adult corn-rootworm beetles (Chrysomelidae : Diabrotica spp.), important pests of corn, on sunflowers (Asteraceae : Helianthus spp . ) in prairie remnants in southeast Minnesota. Large numbers of beetles invaded the prairie from surrounding corn fields in late summer. D. barberi and D. virgifera were captured on sticky traps in all locations in the prairie, but abundance was much greater near the edge adjacent to corn. We observed D. barberi ( but not D. virgifera ) feeding extensively on sunflower pollen and occasionally on other flower parts, such as petals. Sunflowers located nearer corn fields sustained more floral damage than those farther from corn. To determine the effect of beetle damage on seed set, we enclosed sunflower heads in bags with either zero, two, or four D. barberi adults. Seed set was reduced in heads enclosed with D. barberi . Thus, this agricultural pest may interfere with the successful reproduction of sunflowers and possibly other prairie composites that flower in late summer. Given the small size of most prairie remnants and the abundance of this flower-feeding beetle in landscapes dominated by corn agriculture, D. barberi may affect the sustainability of prairie plant populations.