全文获取类型
收费全文 | 534篇 |
免费 | 75篇 |
国内免费 | 75篇 |
专业分类
安全科学 | 182篇 |
废物处理 | 1篇 |
环保管理 | 74篇 |
综合类 | 190篇 |
基础理论 | 177篇 |
污染及防治 | 11篇 |
评价与监测 | 9篇 |
社会与环境 | 30篇 |
灾害及防治 | 10篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 2篇 |
2023年 | 32篇 |
2022年 | 28篇 |
2021年 | 43篇 |
2020年 | 34篇 |
2019年 | 30篇 |
2018年 | 14篇 |
2017年 | 30篇 |
2016年 | 30篇 |
2015年 | 30篇 |
2014年 | 17篇 |
2013年 | 21篇 |
2012年 | 28篇 |
2011年 | 43篇 |
2010年 | 39篇 |
2009年 | 37篇 |
2008年 | 33篇 |
2007年 | 36篇 |
2006年 | 37篇 |
2005年 | 23篇 |
2004年 | 13篇 |
2003年 | 16篇 |
2002年 | 17篇 |
2001年 | 5篇 |
2000年 | 5篇 |
1999年 | 8篇 |
1998年 | 5篇 |
1997年 | 3篇 |
1996年 | 2篇 |
1995年 | 3篇 |
1994年 | 3篇 |
1993年 | 3篇 |
1991年 | 1篇 |
1990年 | 1篇 |
1989年 | 2篇 |
1988年 | 2篇 |
1987年 | 1篇 |
1985年 | 2篇 |
1978年 | 2篇 |
1977年 | 1篇 |
1975年 | 1篇 |
1973年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有684条查询结果,搜索用时 155 毫秒
41.
BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roman Krzysztofowicz 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(5):805-814
Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts. 相似文献
42.
Wendy A. Rice Steven M. Gorelick 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(6):919-930
A graphical inverse method for determining the regional transmissivity distribution was applied to three field problems. The study areas were the Hanford Site, Washington; the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, Colorado; and the Nevada Test Site, Nevada. This method can aid in flow system conceptualization by revealing the location of bedrock controls for groundwater flow. It is a valuable tool for aiding the hydrogeologist in asking questions about the nature of trends in the pattern of transmissivity values. Quantitative estimates of regional transmissivities can be used as starting points for further parameter refinement. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation shows that quantitative estimates of transmissivity can be obtained when measurement error in the hydraulic head does not cause a large error in the hydraulic gradient. 相似文献
43.
Preparation and implementation of seven ecological compensation plans for Dutch highways 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
First-generation compensation plans (CPs) for Dutch highway projects have been evaluated with respect to implementation of
the compensation principle (1993), which aims to counterbalance the adverse ecological impacts of large-scale development
projects. Decision-making on the seven projects took place between 1993 and 1995. Specifically, we considered: (a) the processes
employed to prepare and implement the compensation plans; (b) the methods used to identify, plan, and execute the compensation
measures; and (c) the results yielded by these methods. We conclude that the CPs were prepared fairly uniformly, particularly
in terms of the processes and methodologies used to derive compensation measures. Five of the seven CPs had become operational
by 2001 and initial experience is now being gained on land acquisition and transfer of compensation sites to nature conservation
trusts. Further progress of CPs is likely to be seriously hampered by growing demand for land for development in general and
associated increases in real estate prices. Several problems are addressed and recommendations made with respect to: (a) developing
a legal basis for the compensation principle; (b) the relationship with re-allotment projects; (c) estimation of compensation
costs; (d) an annual bias of CP budgets to account for rising costs; (e) contingency measures; and (f) criteria for CP (ex-post)
evaluation. 相似文献
44.
把模糊计算理论和有色Petri网有机地结合起来 ,提出了一种模糊颜色Petri网诊断表决算法 ,把该算法应用于DVP的软件模型 ,使之具有故障容忍和表决的能力。笔者对以模糊颜色Petri网为核心的DVP软件模型表决算法进行了较为深入的探讨 ,该模型对提高软件系统的安全性和可靠性具有实际意义。 相似文献
45.
Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions. 相似文献
46.
Jeffrey H. Smith Donald R. Davis Martin Fogel 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1977,13(3):529-541
ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration. 相似文献
47.
48.
Nabil Semmar Maurice Jay Muhammad Farman Maurice Roux 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2008,13(1):17-33
The quantitative assessment of plant diversity and its monitoring with time represent a key environmental issue for management
and conservation of natural resources. Assessment of plant diversity could be based on chemical analyses of secondary metabolites
(e.g. flavonoids, terpenoids), because of the substantial quantitative and qualitative between-individual variability in such
compounds. At a geographical scale, the plant populations become widely dispersed, and their monitoring from numerous routine
individual analyses could become restricting. To overcome such constraint, this study develops a multivariate calibration
model giving the relative frequency of a particular taxon from a simple high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis
of a plant mixture. The model was built from a complete set of mixtures combining different taxons, according to an experimental
design (Scheffé’s matrix). For each mixture, a reference HPLC pattern was simulated by averaging the individual HPLC profiles
of the constitutive taxons. The calibration models, based on Bayesian discriminant analysis (BDA), gave statistical relationships
between the contributions of each taxon in mixtures and reference HPLC patterns of these mixtures. Finally, these models were
validated on new mixtures by using outside plants. This new biodiversity survey approach is illustrated on four chemical taxons
(four chemotypes) of Astragalus caprinus (Fabaceae). The more differentiated the taxon, the better predicted its contributions (in mixtures) were by BDA calibration
model. This new approach could be very useful for a global routine survey of plant diversity. 相似文献
49.
Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease
in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation
and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future
water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion.
To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and
salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model
indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early
life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing
our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the
recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low
flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is
a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine
salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research. 相似文献
50.
建筑物消防系统可靠性分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议. 相似文献