Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies

Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). We propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change.     

Risk tolerance and pilot involvement in hazardous events and flight into adverse weather

INTRODUCTION: According to Lopes [Lopes, L.L. (1987). Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 20, 255-295] tolerance of risk may be governed by sensitivity to either the opportunities for gain or threats of loss involved. Methods: In the initial study, qualified pilots were presented with 36 written flight scenarios that varied in the levels of opportunity and threat present. The pilots rated the likelihood that they would undertake each flight. Pilots were largely risk averse, as their ratings were all significantly influenced by threat. Results: The pilots whose ratings were significantly influenced by opportunity had been involved in more hazardous aviation incidents than the other pilots. In the final study, 32 qualified pilots completed both the risk tolerance measure and a simulated flight into adverse weather. The pilots who continued flying into adverse weather were less risk averse compared to the pilots who diverted. This further highlighted the link between risk tolerance and risk-taking, and suggested that some pilots may fly into adverse weather because of a greater tolerance of risk. Impact on Industry:The studies provide evidence that a measure of risk tolerance can predict potential accident involvement amongst general aviation pilots.     

农业自然灾害威胁性的灰色局势决策

本文以农业自然灾害及与之相关的机率、强度、对产值损害度、社会抗灾能力效果等因素，构造成灾害威胁局势，并引用灰色系统理论的最优局势概念和决策方法，对灾害威胁性的灰色局势作出排序决策。     

Chronicles of security risk assessment in process industries: Past,present and future perspectives

Security incidents around the world causes enormous loss in terms of life, economy, and environment. The 9/11 ′triggered the serious onset of research initiatives in the field of security with a more specific focus on the protection of high sensitive and hazardous facilities. It is well known that technology is advancing in a very rapid phase, proportionally increasing the security risk of the facilities. Conventional deterministic risk techniques widely found their applications in the earlier stage but owing to the increasing dynamic nature of the security risk, probabilistic dynamic risk assessment models were developed over time. In this article, the authors attempted to present the evolution of security risk concepts, their present status, and their future scope in a precise and consolidated form. The last 20 years of development in the security risk assessment concept involving deterministic and dynamic risk assessment models and applications in security risk assessment relevant to physical security are discussed in this article. The objective of the article is to outline the past, current and future directions of security risk highlighting their strength, weakness and limitations.     

Provenance and threat-sensitive predator avoidance patterns in wild-caught Trinidadian guppies

The antipredator behaviour of prey organisms is shaped by a series of threat-sensitive trade-offs between the benefits associated with successful predator avoidance and a suite of other fitness-related behaviours such as foraging, mating and territorial defence. Recent research has shown that the overall intensity of antipredator response and the pattern of threat-sensitive trade-offs are influenced by current conditions, including variability in predation risk over a period of days to weeks. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that long-term predation pressure will likewise have shaped the nature of the threat-sensitive antipredator behaviour of wild-caught Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata). Female guppies were collected from two populations that have evolved under high- and low-predation pressure, respectively, in the Aripo River, Northern Mountain Range, Trinidad. Under laboratory conditions, we exposed shoals of three guppies to varying concentrations of conspecific damage-released chemical alarm cues. Lower Aripo (high-predation) guppies exhibited the strongest antipredator response when exposed to the highest alarm cue concentration and a graded decline in response intensity with decreasing concentrations of alarm cue. Upper Aripo (low-predation) guppies, however, exhibited a nongraded (hypersensitive) response pattern. Our results suggest that long-term predation pressure shapes not only the overall intensity of antipredator responses of Trinidadian guppies but also their threat-sensitive behavioural response patterns.