基于模糊影响图方法的库存弹药事故概率分析

针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3～10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。     

Seven thousand years in the service of humanity—the history of copper, the red metal

Measured by weight, copper is the third most important metal used by man. The annual value of its 2007 output was on a par with the GDP of e.g. Ukraine. Copper is also one of the oldest metals, its employment going back 7000 years. For millennia, it was predominantly employed for decorative purposes, coinage and in warfare. Technical breakthroughs in antiquity, like smelting and alloying, expanded its production and enhanced its utility. Copper's true heyday occurred after 1850, with the usage of electricity. In the period since then, volumes increased 300-fold, while costs and prices declined. With impressive progress in the technology of its production and consumption, the red metal has been able to hold its own, despite the emergence over history of formidable substitutes like iron, aluminum, plastics and optic fiber.     

Chemical fluxes in time through forest ecosystems in the UK - Soil response to pollution recovery

Long term trend analysis of bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution elemental fluxes from 12 years monitoring at 10 ICP Level II forest sites in the UK reveal coherent national chemical trends indicating recovery from sulphur deposition and acidification. Soil solution pH increased and sulphate and aluminium decreased at most sites. Trends in nitrogen were variable and dependant on its form. Dissolved organic nitrogen increased in bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution at most sites. Nitrate in soil solution declined at sites receiving high nitrogen deposition. Increase in soil dissolved organic carbon was detected - a response to pollution recovery, changes in soil temperature and/or increased microbial activity. An increase of sodium and chloride was evident - a possible result of more frequent storm events at exposed sites. The intensive and integrated nature of monitoring enables the relationships between climate/pollutant exposure and chemical/biological response in forestry to be explored.     

事故状态下污染物排放对水环境影响的预测研究

对辽河油田欢喜岭采油厂在事故状态下污染物排放对大凌河水域环境的影响进行预测研究。计算了洪水淹没、油罐冒顶泄漏、油井井喷泄漏、联合站泄漏、管道泄漏、暴雨径流带走落地油等16种情景下对该河流水质的影响情况,并建立数学模型,进行情景模拟。研究结果表明,事故状态下对大凌河水质影响的次序由大到小依次为:洪水淹没、油罐冒顶泄漏、油井井喷泄漏、联合站泄漏、管道泄漏、暴雨径流。     

江河水源地突发性水污染事故风险评价

近年来,我国江河饮用水水源地突发性水质污染事故频发,成为我国面临的最严重的环境问题之一.江河水源地突发性水质污染事件的风险评价是确保饮用水源地水质安全的重要手段,对突发性水质污染事故,采取适当的应急处理措施.     

行为安全管理理论在我国的实践困境及其解决途径

行为安全管理理论在我国被广泛宣传与应用,但在概念理解、定量判断及影响因素的分析等方面存在着认识误区,要改变行为安全管理理论在实践中的困境,发挥其应有作用,笔者认为:应首先对理论研究中的相关概念进行规范,加强对我国生产安全事故与行为安全之间的定量关系研究;并将工程技术措施和组织管理措施作为事故风险的控制重点;探索符合我国职工特点的安全教育培训方式,增强企业的安全生产主体责任意识,提高安全投入的有效性,将安全融入到经济与社会发展过程中。只有为行为安全管理理论的实践和应用提供良好的环境和保障,才能进一步提升我国企业的生产安全事故风险控制水平。     

Hunter Reporting of Catch per Unit Effort as a Monitoring Tool in a Bushmeat‐Harvesting System

Abstract: Growing threats to biodiversity in the tropics mean there is an increasing need for effective monitoring that balances scientific rigor with practical feasibility. Alternatives to professional techniques are emerging that are based on the involvement of local people. Such locally based monitoring methods may be more sustainable over time, allow greater spatial coverage and quicker management decisions, lead to increased compliance, and help encourage attitude shifts toward more environmentally sustainable practices. Nevertheless, few studies have yet compared the findings or cost‐effectiveness of locally based methods with professional techniques or investigated the power of locally based methods to detect trends. We gathered data on bushmeat‐hunting catch and effort using a professional technique (accompanying hunters on hunting trips) and two locally based methods in which data were collected by hunters (hunting camp diaries and weekly hunter interviews) in a 15‐month study in Equatorial Guinea. Catch and effort results from locally based methods were strongly correlated with those of the professional technique and the spatial locations of hunting trips reported in the locally based methods accurately reflected those recorded with the professional technique. We used power simulations of catch and effort data to show that locally based methods can reliably detect meaningful levels of change (20% change with 80% power at significance level [α]= 0.05) in multispecies catch per unit effort. Locally based methods were the most cost‐effective for monitoring. Hunter interviews collected catch and effort data on 240% more hunts per person hour and 94% more hunts per unit cost, spent on monitoring, than the professional technique. Our results suggest that locally based monitoring can offer an accurate, cost‐effective, and sufficiently powerful method to monitor the status of natural resources. To establish such a system in Equatorial Guinea, the current lack of national and local capacity for monitoring and management must be addressed.     

人-机系统事故预防理论研究

分析人-机系统事故发生原因,剖析经典以人失误为主因的事故致因模型存在的不足,在该模型基础上增加"刺激"形成的原因,构建了改进事故致因模型。对两模型进行比较研究,指出人机工程学与防止事故的关系,提出了人机工程学防止事故的方法,并给出人机界面合理性主观评价检查表。研究及论证表明:预防人-机系统事故的本质在于有效防止人失误的发生,除安全管理措施以外,最重要的是人机工程学问题,笔者提出的基于人机工程学的人-机系统事故预防理论,对人-机系统事故的预防起到积极的指导作用。     

化工事故应急救援仿真演练系统的实施探讨

阐述了化工事故应急救援仿真的必要性及其国内外研究进展;提出整个系统的框架并设计系统开发过程的模型;分析了基于高层体系结构(HIA)的仿真系统的开发要点,给出参考开发工具,从而为整个系统开发提供思路.     

基于人工免疫原理的事故预防研究

介绍生物免疫识别模式,分析事故预防过程的实质是抑制潜在危险转化成事故的控制过程,分析比较事故预防与生物免疫识别模式在作用、生存环境、动作触发源等的共性,构建了基于免疫识别模式的事故预防系统并建立了事故预防数学模型;定义事故预防系统的识别率、失效率、误判率并给出了数学表达式,指出监测生产系统各环节状态信息是否符合系统的安全要求就是识别潜在危险的过程,是事故预防的关键,基于人工免疫原理的事故预防数学模型具有较强的健壮性、自适应性和动态防护性等特点。