极端气候事件的灾后适应能力研究——以水稻为例

本研究以水稻种植业为例,基于1985-2008年中国水稻主产区的面板数据,实证分析了中国极端气候事件灾后适应能力的机制及绩效。结论表明:西南、华中、华东地区在极端气候事件灾后,并没有将农业产业结构向养殖业调整,相反,种植业在政府扶持与创新激励下反而恢复生产甚至进一步扩张。特别对于西南等经济相对欠发达地区而言,较强的灾后适应能力,往往是农业生产机会成本较低的作用结果,同样由于此原因,华东地区在水灾之后却出现了劳动力转移现象。现阶段,灾后适应能力较多的表现为微观层面的农户响应行为,此种民间调控机制必然有其局限性,政府部门应加大投入力度,通过水利工程建设、气象灾害预警体系构建、标准化农田建设、良种补贴等方式引领粮食主产区应对气象灾害。     

Design and evaluation of a local analytic-deliberative process for climate adaptation planning

In the midst of rapidly proliferating engagement efforts around climate adaptation, attention to the design and evaluation of decision support processes and products is warranted. We report on the development and evaluation of a process framework called the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process. VCAPS is a systematic approach to integrate local knowledge with scientific understanding by providing opportunities for facilitated, deliberative learning-based activities with local decision makers about climate change vulnerability and adaptation. We introduce the conceptual basis of the process in analytic-deliberation, hazard management, and vulnerability. Our evaluations from eight coastal communities where the approach was applied point to four assets of VCAPS: it promotes synthesis of local and scientific knowledge; it stimulates systems thinking and learning; it facilitates governance by producing action plans with transparent justifications; and it accommodates participant time constraints and preferences.     

Ecological plasticity of nest-building behavior of the redwing (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Turdus iliacus</Emphasis> L.) in Karelia according to individual marking data

The placement of 1918 redwing nests has been analyzed, including 214 nests of 90 marked females (2–8 known nests per female). A high level of intraspecific and individual variation in utilization of different types of nest supports is described. It is shown that redwings choose nest sites without regard to previous experience (either positive or negative) or to the placement of their parent nest. Under conditions of the northern taiga, such behavior provides for significant reduction of chick mortality by the end of the season. This is con- firmed by comparison with the song thrush (T. philomelos), which nests mainly on spruce trees.     

Response of the pigment system of conifers to long-term industrial air pollution

To estimate the response of conifers to long-term industrial air pollution at the pigment system level, the dynamics of photosynthetic pigments have been studied in needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) growing at different distances from the emission source (a pulp and paper mill). It has been shown that the pigment apparatus of spruce. The results show that in spruce, unlike in pine, the pigment apparatus remains unchanged under the effect of weak pollution. Long-term exposure at high levels of industrial emission results in suppression of chlorophyll and carotenoid syntheses in pine but stimulates pigment production in spruce. An increase in the contents of pigments in the needles of conifers growing in the impact zone of the pulp and paper mill reflects a compensatory mechanism of adaptation of their pigment system to long-term stress exposure.     

The role of floods in the Long-term dynamics of geobiont and chortobiont communities on islands of the Kuibyshev Reservoir

Interannual changes in geobiont and chortobiont abundance on the islands of Kuibyshev Reservoir are largely determined by flood conditions, because the seasonal average abundance of many taxa is negatively correlated to the water level in May and June. Floods influence the abundance of these animals both directly and indirectly, through biocenotic connections and some aspects of behavior. Long-term positive trends are observed in the abundance of many species. The hypothesis is proposed that this increase in the abundance of geobionts and chortobionts is a consequence of adaptation processes in these communities, which are stimulated by the flood regime of the reservoir.     

THE INFLUENCE OF DRAW-DOWN ON RECREATION ON THE TRENT CANAL RESERVOIR-LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Water-based outdoor recreation constitutes an important benefit in many multiple-use projects. One problem frequently encountered, however, is the fluctuation of the water-level in a reservoir, especially if draw-downs occur during the summer recreation season. The Trent Canal in Ontario, Canada, forms a unique recreation waterway of some 240 miles of canal and navigable lakes and rivers. For the control of the water in the canal, the Canadian Federal government manages 44 reservoir-lakes as water-storage sites to augment the flows in the canal. While most disputes in water allocation for recreation generally involve recreation uses versus other, non-recreation uses, in the case of the Trent Canal and its reservoir-lakes the dispute in water allocation exists between two competing recreation-uses: for recreation boating on the Canal and its waterway, and for recreation use of the reservoir-lakes. Each use has its own duty-of-water in terms of requirements, or water conditions, for its optimum use. On the reservoir-lakes, by far the largest recreation user-group, is made up of the owners of private shoreline summer cottages (cabins). Draw-downs on the reservoir-lakes, in some cases as much as 13 feet, hence constitute a negative externality imposed by the canal, especially since water-level lowering takes place continuously throughout the summer. In-depth interviews conducted with over 100 cottage-owners indicate four main conclusions. First, the previous user assumptions of the extent of the negative effect of water-level fluctuation on recreation had been exaggerated. Only in extreme draw-downs during infrequent dry years would draw-down constitute a serious imposition. Second, water-level fluctuation does constitute a form of inconvenience to the private riparian recreation property owners, but it does not generally reduce the quantity of recreation use of the reservoir-lakes. Third, there is evidence that reservoir-lake users have learned to adapt successfully to water-level draw-downs. Fourth, the shoreline physiography of the location of a riparian owner strongly influences the way in which draw-down affects attitudes and opinions. The complex jurisdictional split of the land and water resources of the region points to the need to establish a Trent Canal Authority, to oversee the proper use and development of the canal, its waterway, and the reservoir-lakes.     

Disaster reduction,loss and damage data,and the post-2015 international policy agenda

Disaster risk management, particularly management of climate-related risks, has become central to the international policy agenda. Reducing hazard-related loss and damage relies heavily on scientific inputs. Science, in turn, relies on data—in this case 1) risk-related data on hazards, exposure and vulnerability, and 2) data on associated loss and damage outcomes. The latter, data on losses and damage, are also post-2015 international policy outcome indicators at the highest level, required for countries’ monitoring of progress in reducing disaster risk, adapting to climate change, and achieving sustainable development. Although the quantity and accessibility of loss and damage data are improving, a number of issues continue to constrain their potential. These include needs for more consistent cataloguing of hazards and extreme events, more systematic and accurate documentation of per-event losses and damage, more precise cross-referencing of hazard events with associated loss and damage, and improved standardization and interoperability among databases. We identify measures for improvement in this regard, both for research purposes and for post-2015 international policy implementation.     

Evolution of tolerance to PCBs and susceptibility to a bacterial pathogen (Vibrio harveyi) in Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) from New Bedford (MA, USA) harbor

A population of the non-migratory estuarine fish Fundulus heteroclitus (Atlantic killifish) resident to New Bedford (NB), Massachusetts, USA, an urban harbor highly contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), demonstrates recently evolved tolerance to some aspects of PCB toxicity. PCB toxicology, ecological theory, and some precedence supported expectations of increased susceptibility to pathogens in NB killifish. However, laboratory bacterial challenges of the marine pathogen Vibrio harveyi to wild fish throughout the reproductive season and to their mature laboratory-raised progeny demonstrated comparable survival by NB and reference killifish, and improved survival by NB males. These results are inconsistent with hypothesized trade-offs of adaptation, and suggest that evolved tolerance in NB killifish may include mechanisms that minimize the immunosuppressive effects of PCBs. Compensatory strategies of populations persisting in highly contaminated environments provide a unique perspective for understanding the long-term ecological effects of toxic chemicals.     

Integral assessment of estrogenic potentials in sediment-associated samples

Background, aim, and scope  The enzyme-linked receptor assay (ELRA) detects estrogenic and anti-estrogenic effects at the molecular level of receptor binding and is a useful tool for the integrative assessment of ecotoxicological potentials caused by hormonally active agents (HAA) and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDC). The main advantage of the ELRA is its high sample throughput and its robustness against cytotoxicity and microbial contamination. After a methodological adaptation to salinity of the ELRA, according to the first part of this study, which increased its salinity tolerance and sensitivity for 17-β-estradiol, the optimised ELRA was used to investigate 13 native sediments characterised by different levels of salinity and chemical contamination. The applicability of the ELRA for routine analysis in environmental assessment was evaluated. Salinity is often a critical factor for bioassays in ecotoxicological sediment assessment. Therefore, salinity of the samples was additionally adjusted to different levels to characterise its influence on elution and binding processes of receptor-binding substances. Materials and methods  The ELRA was carried out with the human estrogen receptor α (ER) in a 96-well microplate format using the experimental setup known from the competitive immunoassay based on ligand–protein interaction. It is an important improvement that a physiologically relevant receptor was used as a linking protein instead of an antibody. The microplates were coated with a 17-β-estradiol-BSA conjugate, and dilution series of estradiol and of native sediment samples were added and incubated with the ER. After a washing step, a biotinylated mouse anti-ER antibody was added to each well. Receptor binding to estradiol, agonistic and antagonistic receptor binding, were determined by a streptavidin-POD-biotin complex with subsequent measurement of the peroxidase activity at the wavelength of 450 nm using a commercial ELISA multiplate reader. The sediment elutriates and pore water samples of sediments were tested in a dilution series to evaluate at which dilution step the receptor-binding potential ends. In the elution process (see Section 2.1 to 2.2), a method was developed to adjust the salinity to the levels of the reference testings, which offers an appropriate option to adjust the salinity in both directions. Statistical evaluation was made with a combination of the Mann–Whitney U test and the pT-method. Results  This part of the study characterised the environmental factor ‘salinity’ for prospective applications of the ELRA. Using reference substances such as 17-β-estradiol, the ELRA showed sigmoid concentration-effect relations over a broad range from 0.05 μg/l to 100 μg/l under physiological conditions. After methodological optimisation, both sensitivity and tolerance of the assay against salinity could be significantly raised, and the ELRA became applicable under salinity conditions up to concentrations of 20.5‰. The mean relative inter-test error (n = 3) was around 11% with reference substances and below 5% for single sediments elutriates in three replicates each. For sediment testings, the pore water and different salinity-adjusted elutriates of 13 sediments were used. A clear differentiation of the receptor-binding potential could be reached by application of the pT-method. Thereby, pT-values from one to six could be assigned to the sediments, and the deviation caused by the different salinity conditions was one pT-value. The mean standard deviation in the salinity adaptation procedure of the elutriates was below 5%. Discussion  Although the ELRA has already been used for assessments of wastewater, sludge and soil, its applicability for samples to different salinity levels has not been investigated so far. Even if the ELRA is not as sensitive as the E-screen or the YES-assay, with regard to reference substances like 17-β-estradiol, it is a very useful tool for pre-screening, because it is able to integrate both estrogenic as well as anti-estrogenic receptor-binding effects. According to the results of sediment testing, and given the integrative power to detect different directions of effects, the ELRA shows sufficient sensitivity and salinity tolerance to discriminate receptor-binding potentials in environmental samples. Conclusions  The optimised ELRA assay is a fast, cost-effective, reliable and highly reproducible tool that can be used for high-throughput screening in a microplate format in detecting both estrogenic and anti-estrogenic effects. Additionally, the ELRA is robust against microbial contaminations, and is not susceptible towards cytotoxic interferences like the common cell-culture methods. The general applicability and sufficient sensitivity of the ELRA was shown in freshwater environments. Marine and brackish samples can be measured up to salinity levels of 20.5‰. Recommendations and perspectives  In view of the proven sensitivity, functionality and the fastness of the ELRA, it is recommendable to standardise the test method. At the moment, no adequate in vitro test procedure exists which is standardised to DIN or ISO levels. The E-screen and the yeast estrogen/androgen screens (YES/YAS) sometimes underlie strong cytotoxic effects, as reported in the first part of this study. Further development of an ELRA assay using human androgen receptors appears to be very promising to gain information about androgenic and anti-androgenic effects, too. This would offer a possibility to use the ELRA as a fast and reliable pre-screening tool for the detection of endocrine potentials, thus minimising time and cost-expensive animal experiments.     

行车司机职业适应性评价原理探讨

简要介绍了行车司机职业适应性测试和评价的基本原理及其重要性。