基于Pathfinder软件的飞机人员疏散模拟

为弥补飞机适航审定过程中难以大量开展人员疏散演习的缺陷,使用Pathfinder软件对飞机人员疏散模拟开展了研究.根据波音777-200飞机的疏散设施结构,按CCAR-121-R4部要求的标准人员组成,以及实际中的可信不利的人员组成,分5个场景分别进行疏散模拟.根据模拟结果,对影响飞机人员疏散的疏散出口使用率和人员组成进行了分析.结果表明,标准人员组成的疏散模拟结果超过90s,对疏散出口使用率进行优化后,疏散时间才满足90 s的要求.合理的疏散出口使用比例能够减少11％疏散时间.相同人员数量不同人员组成时,疏散时间变化较大.在老年人占80％的疏散场景2中,疏散时间达到107 s;在青少年占50％的疏散场景5中,疏散时间达到96.52 s.通过设置不同人数的疏散场景,并对结果进行曲线拟合,确定了不同人员组成时满足90 s要求的最大允许容纳的人员数量.疏散场景2、3、4和5在满足疏散时间为90 s时飞机所能承载的最大人数分别为310、316、321和329.     

A Simulation Study on the Efficacy of Advanced Belt Restraints to Mitigate the Effects of Obesity for Rear-Seat Occupant Protection in Frontal Crashes

Objective: Recent field data analyses have shown that the safety advantages of rear seats relative to the front seats have decreased in newer vehicles. Separately, the risks of certain injuries have been found to be higher for obese occupants. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of advanced belt features on the protection of rear-seat occupants with a range of body mass index (BMI) in frontal crashes.

Methods: Whole-body finite element human models with 4 BMI levels (25, 30, 35, and 40 kg/m²) developed previously were used in this study. A total of 52 frontal crash simulations were conducted, including 4 simulations with a standard rear-seat, 3-point belt and 48 simulations with advanced belt features. The parameters varied in the simulations included BMI, load limit, anchor pretensioner, and lap belt routing relative to the pelvis. The injury measurements analyzed in this study included head and hip excursions, normalized chest deflection, and torso angle (defined as the angle between the hip–shoulder line and the vertical direction). Analyses of covariance were used to test the significance (P <.05) of the results.

Results: Higher BMI was associated with greater head and hip excursions and larger normalized chest deflection. Higher belt routing increased the hip excursion and torso angle, which indicates a higher submarining risk, whereas the anchor pretensioner reduced hip excursion and torso angle. Lower load limits decreased the normalized chest deflection but increased the head excursion. Normalized chest deflection had a positive correlation with maximum torso angle. Occupants with higher BMI have to use higher load limits to reach head excursions similar to those in lower BMI occupants.

Discussion and Conclusion: The simulation results suggest that optimizing load limiter and adding pretensioner(s) can reduce injury risks associated with obesity, but conflicting effects on head and chest injuries were observed. This study demonstrated the feasibility and importance of using human models to investigate protection for occupants with various BMI levels. A seat belt system capable of adapting to occupant size and body shape will improve protection for obese occupants in rear seats.     

Evaluation of Vehicle-Based Crash Severity Metrics

Objective: Vehicle change in velocity (delta-v) is a widely used crash severity metric used to estimate occupant injury risk. Despite its widespread use, delta-v has several limitations. Of most concern, delta-v is a vehicle-based metric which does not consider the crash pulse or the performance of occupant restraints, e.g. seatbelts and airbags. Such criticisms have prompted the search for alternative impact severity metrics based upon vehicle kinematics. The purpose of this study was to assess the ability of the occupant impact velocity (OIV), acceleration severity index (ASI), vehicle pulse index (VPI), and maximum delta-v (delta-v) to predict serious injury in real world crashes.

Methods: The study was based on the analysis of event data recorders (EDRs) downloaded from the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) 2000–2013 cases. All vehicles in the sample were GM passenger cars and light trucks involved in a frontal collision. Rollover crashes were excluded. Vehicles were restricted to single-event crashes that caused an airbag deployment. All EDR data were checked for a successful, completed recording of the event and that the crash pulse was complete. The maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS) was used to describe occupant injury outcome. Drivers were categorized into either non-seriously injured group (MAIS2?) or seriously injured group (MAIS3+), based on the severity of any injuries to the thorax, abdomen, and spine. ASI and OIV were calculated according to the Manual for Assessing Safety Hardware. VPI was calculated according to ISO/TR 12353-3, with vehicle-specific parameters determined from U.S. New Car Assessment Program crash tests. Using binary logistic regression, the cumulative probability of injury risk was determined for each metric and assessed for statistical significance, goodness-of-fit, and prediction accuracy.

Results: The dataset included 102,744 vehicles. A Wald chi-square test showed each vehicle-based crash severity metric estimate to be a significant predictor in the model (p < 0.05). For the belted drivers, both OIV and VPI were significantly better predictors of serious injury than delta-v (p < 0.05). For the unbelted drivers, there was no statistically significant difference between delta-v, OIV, VPI, and ASI.

Conclusions: The broad findings of this study suggest it is feasible to improve injury prediction if we consider adding restraint performance to classic measures, e.g. delta-v. Applications, such as advanced automatic crash notification, should consider the use of different metrics for belted versus unbelted occupants.     

Assessing the impact of microfinance programming on children: an evaluation from post‐tsunami Aceh

This paper presents an evaluation of the long‐term impact of microfinance programmes on Acehnese children during the post‐tsunami recovery. The study, conducted from June to August 2010, examined the impact of microfinance programming six years after the tsunami. The sample consisted of 185 microfinance participants, with a comparison group of 192 individuals who did not participate in microfinance programmes. All respondents were parents, interviewed through a structured survey. The study used four child protection indicators—diet, health, childcare and education—in contrast to traditional repayment rate indicators. The primary results were insignificant with respect to all four child protection indicators, suggesting that, with respect to these indicators, there was no long‐term difference between the impact of microfinance on beneficiaries' children and non‐beneficiaries' children. These findings signify a need for microfinance actors to move beyond traditional indicators of economic success to evaluate the social changes microfinance programmes are presumed to effect.     

Risk of flood-related mortality in Nepal

In July 1993, severe flooding devastated Sarlahi district in Nepal. The next month, a follow-up study of a large population cohort was undertaken. The study is unique in that a prospective research database was used to verify residency prior to the flood and to confirm vital status afterwards. It evaluated 41,501 children aged between two and nine years and adults aged 15-70 in 7,252 households. Flood-related fatality rates were 13.3 per 1,000 for girls and 9.4 per 1,000 for boys, 6.1 per 1,000 for women and 4.1 per 1,000 for men. Flood-related fatality rates for children were six times higher than mortality rates in the same villages a year before the flood (relative risk (RR) = 5.9, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 5.0-6.8). Flood-related fatality was associated with low socio-economic status preflood (RR = 6.4, 95 per cent CI 2.7-20.0), and having a house constructed of thatch (RR = 5.1, 95 per cent CI 1.7-24.5).     

Attitudes toward a primary seat belt law among adults in a rural state with a secondary seat belt law

Problem

Enforced primary seatbelt laws can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with motor-vehicle crashes. Constituent support is an important factor associated with legislator voting behavior toward injury prevention laws. Little is known about attitudes toward a primary seat belt law among adults in rural states without a primary seat belt law.

Methods

Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey, a telephone survey of a representative sample of adults in Montana, were used to assess attitudes toward a primary seat belt law.

Results

Sixty-one percent of respondents supported a primary seat belt law. Using multiple logistic regression analyses, women (AOR 1.87; 95% CI 1.49-2.36), persons aged 65 years and older (1.45; 1.06-1.96), American Indians (2.71; 1.55-4.75), those with health insurance (1.51; 1.07-2.14), and those who reported always wearing their seat belt (4.05; 3.14-5.21) were more likely to support a primary seat belt law than respondents without these characteristics.

Conclusions

The majority of adults in a rural state support a primary seat belt law.     

Food aid and development in southern Sudan: implications of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement for response planning

In the post-Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) era a greater impact on the unacceptably high prevalence of child malnutrition is more likely to come from additional investment and attention to education, health, hygiene, sanitation and childcare practices than from expanded food aid interventions. The negligible impact of food aid on malnutrition, although most commonly challenged on the quality of needs assessments, is equally attributable to the timing of deliveries, and a dysfunctional distribution system. Comparatively few resources have been allocated to strengthen skills for assessing, analysing and understanding community priorities, local economies, and social safety nets. A more thoughtful allocation of scarce funds could have more impact if a range of alternative responses was considered. Participation in and commitment to a more independent livelihoods analytical forum would improve communication with the new government, local leaders and other partners, as well as providing a platform for reaching consensus on both humanitarian and development planning over the next five years.     

The safety implications of vehicle seat adjustments

INTRODUCTION: The goal of this study was to gather information on the preferred front seat position of vehicle occupants and to determine the impact of variation in seat position on safety during crashes. METHOD: The study evaluated the relationship between seat position and occupant size using the chi-square test and compared the risk of severe injury for small females and large males with regard to forward and rearward seat position using logistic regression. RESULTS: While smaller drivers sat closer to the steering wheel than larger drivers, front passengers of all sizes used similar seat positions. Additionally, the risk of injury was higher for small, unbelted females in rearward seat positions and large males (belted and unbelted) in forward seat positions. CONCLUSIONS: Occupants who adjust their seats to positions that are not consistent with required federal tests are at a greater risk for severe injury in a crash.     

人员疏散准备时间及其对火灾风险评估结果的影响

火灾时人员的有效避难评估是火灾风险评估中的重要组成部分.作为人员疏散时间中重要组成部分的疏散准备时间服从概率分布,而通常计算中往往将其简单取为常数.将人员疏散准备时间简单取为常数时,有可能产生模拟计算结果比实际偏差大、疏散情形与真实情况不符的情况.以一座办公建筑为例进行了计算,将人员疏散准备时间简单取为常数时与人员疏散时间服从正态分布的情况进行了比较,并分析了对火灾风险评估结果的影响.