基于CREAM和贝叶斯网络的空管人误概率预测方法

针对研究管制人因可靠性时存在的模糊性和片面性问题,采用认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）中的扩展预测法,计算10项管制通用任务的人误概率;在此基础上,以管制行为形成因子作为根节点构建贝叶斯网络,建立其与情景控制模式的不确定关系模型,对管制员在多任务中的人误概率进行预测。研究结果表明:在由相同评判者给出行为形成因子影响效应的前提下,由CREAM扩展预测法和构建贝叶斯网络的方法预测得到的多数任务的人误概率差异较大,从方法的客观性、合理性和适用性角度分析,贝叶斯网络在研究该问题时更具优势。     

Depth perception,dark adaptation,vigilance and accident proneness of Chinese coal mine workers

To explore the relationships between human factors and accident proneness of coal mine workers, the depth perception, dark adaptation and vigilance abilities of 239 Chinese coal mine workers were tested and their accident proneness was surveyed with an accident proneness questionnaire. The results indicated that dark adaptation and vigilance abilities of the mine workers declined with increasing age. Vigilance had a significant negative relationship with accident proneness. There were significant differences in vigilance between coal mine workers doing different types of work. Individual difference in vigilance was relevant to the type of work that an individual did in a coal mine. The dark adaptation index had a significant positive relationship with accident proneness. Coal mine workers with weaker dark adaptation ability were also more accident prone. Some ergonomics recommendations concerning coal mine safety management in China are proposed.     

多溴联苯醚暴露的神经行为效应及其毒理机制

溴代阻燃剂多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)是一类在各类环境介质、生物体和人体中均能检出的普遍存在的环境污染物。我国的主要污染源之一集中于东南部地区的电子废弃物回收场地。由于PBDEs具有结构稳定性、亲脂性和生物累积性,电子废弃物拆解回收活动对当地生态系统和居民健康存在着巨大的潜在风险。PBDEs的发育神经毒性受到研究者的极大关注,但其神经行为毒性效应和机制仍需深入研究。行为学效应既是内在神经毒性机制的外在反映,也是推测环境污染物在高级别生物学水平(如种群、群落)影响的最有力试验手段。近年来,基于视频追踪系统技术的商业行为学分析设备迅速发展,使行为学效应测试在环境毒理学领域具备极大的潜力。本文结合近年来国内外环境毒理学研究进展,回顾了PBDEs的神经行为毒性效应,包括运动行为、掠食行为和认知行为,并分析了其可能的毒理机制,最后总结了当前研究存在的问题和未来研究需要关注的重点方向。     

关天经济区农户农地流转行为研究

农地流转是现阶段实现农地规模经营的必经之路。本文基于关天经济区622份调查问卷,建立了农地流转的农户模型,利用Heckman两阶段模型研究了交易成本认知和农户禀赋对农户参与农地流转(转出)、农地流转率的影响。研究结果表明:(1)关天经济区农户参与农地流转的积极性不高,样本农户参与农地流转的仅为23%,农地流转率均值为11%;(2)流转价格了解程度、农地流转组织形式、农地流转合约期限和对外交通便利情况影响农户是否参与农地流转决策,而农地流转率仅受流转价格了解程度和农地流转契约形式影响;(3)劳动力和土地禀赋正向影响农户转出土地,农地流转率随农业生产能力增强而降低;(4)文化程度与农户是否参与农地流转、农地流转率呈现显著的负相关关系,与天水的农户相比,关中地区的农户更倾向于参与农地流转。因此,要促进农户参与农地流转、提升农地流转率,首先要加强农地流转政策的宣传力度,提高农户整体认知水平,增强农户农地流转政策的理解程度和接受能力;其次,深化农村土地产权改革,加快农地确权颁证,提升农户产权的稳定性和可预期性;再次,建立健全农地流转市场,完善市场在农地流转过程中的信号生成机制和传递功能,降低农地流转过程中的交易成本;第四,采取相应的激励政策提高农户土地、劳动力的利用程度,提升农户农业生产能力,避免农户在农地流转市场中的逆向选择行为;最后,建立有效的农地"经营权退出机制",将束缚在农业生产上的低效劳动力和土地释放出来,实现资源的最优化配置。     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Five lessons to guide more effective biodiversity conservation message framing

Communication and advocacy approaches that influence attitudes and behaviors are key to addressing conservation problems, and the way an issue is framed can affect how people view, judge, and respond to an issue. Responses to conservation interventions can also be influenced by subtle wording changes in statements that may appeal to different values, activate social norms, influence a person's affect or mood, or trigger certain biases, each of which can differently influence the resulting engagement, attitudes, and behavior. We contend that by strategically considering how conservation communications are framed, they can be made more effective with little or no additional cost. Key framing considerations include, emphasizing things that matter to the audience, evoking helpful social norms, reducing psychological distance, leveraging useful biases, and, where practicable, testing messages. These lessons will help communicators think strategically about how to frame messages for greater effect.     

Are sociodemographic characteristics and attitude good predictors of speeding behavior among drivers on Malaysia federal roads?

Objective: The increasing number of road crashes and fatalities on Malaysian federal roads is a cause for concern. The main causes of road crashes and fatalities on federal roads have been attributed to the speeding behavior among drivers. As such, this research investigates the possible predictors from sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes in predicting speeding behavior among drivers on Malaysia federal roads.

Methods: A face-to-face survey was conducted via purposive sampling on 300 drivers at rest areas at 6 crash hotspots on Malaysian federal roads. A set of questions related to speeding behavior was developed. The questionnaire consisted of 10 questions related to sociodemographic characteristics of the participants, 37 questions regarding attitudes toward speeding, and 1 question regarding speeding behavior. Subsequently, the sociodemographics were analyzed using binary logistic regression and the attitude variable was analyzed using factor analysis and binary logistic regression.

Results: The findings from the sociodemographic data revealed that male gender, single/separated status, broad driving experience, crash experience, and leisure/vacation trip purposes emerged as significant predictors for speeding behavior. Additionally, the results of factor analysis for the attitude variable revealed 3 components: Affective, behavioral, and cognitive. These 3 components are originally derived from the ABC model of attitude (affective, behavioral, and cognitive) that was adapted in this study. Furthermore, the findings from binary logistic regression appeared consistent with the model assumption, signifying that behavioral aspects significantly influenced speeding behavior among drivers. Nevertheless, affective and cognitive components were insignificant predictors. Furthermore, strong agreement with speeding countermeasures was observed among the participants.

Conclusion: In conclusion, sociodemographic characteristics and attitude have been proven to affect speeding behavior among drivers on Malaysian federal roads. The findings have important implications in designing driver risk profiles on federal roads to develop suitable countermeasures based on the 4E approach (engagement, education, enforcement, and engineering) to enhance road safety.     

Thriving on challenge stressors? Exploring time pressure and learning demands as antecedents of thriving at work

In the conceptualization of thriving at work, it is emphasized that employees' learning and vitality are two equally important components of thriving and that thriving is facilitated by contextual features and available resources. In this study, we examined the effects of two challenge stressors (time pressure and learning demands) on thriving at work. Based on the literature on challenge and hindrance stressors, we proposed that challenge stressors positively affect learning and negatively affect vitality. To uncover underlying mechanisms, we measured challenge appraisal and hindrance appraisal of work situations in a diary study. A sample of 124 knowledge workers responded to three daily surveys (before the lunch break, during the afternoon, and at the end of the workday) for a period of five workdays. Results indicate that the indirect effects of learning demands and time pressure on learning are mediated by challenge appraisal, whereas indirect effects of learning demands on vitality are mediated by hindrance appraisal. Overall, our study shows that challenge stressors have a positive total effect on learning but no total effect on vitality. These differential relationships call for a finer distinction between the two components of thriving at work in future research. Copyright © 2016 The Authors Journal of Organizational Behavior Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

“I feel your pain”: A critical review of organizational research on empathy

Empathy, a multidimensional construct comprised of cognitive, affective, and behavioral dimensions, has been advanced as a critical predictor of prosocial behavior and effectiveness in the workplace. However, despite organizational interest in empathy, there is a lack of consensus on what empathy is, how empathy should be measured, and how empathy research can meaningfully contribute to our understanding of organizational behavior. This paper aims to provide a roadmap for researchers and practitioners interested in empathy in the workplace. We first provide an updated overview of the state of the broader multidisciplinary literature on empathy. On the basis of this literature, we outline the three dimensions of empathy, discuss the distinctions between state/trait and observer/judged empathy, and compare empathy with related constructs. This integrated multidimensional conceptualization provides the basis for our critical review and recommendations. We review the organizational research on empathy (1983–2018), identifying critical issues with how empathy has been conceptualized, measured, and designed, and offer practical recommendations for the advancement of organizational research on empathy. We conclude by highlighting two fundamental questions: (a) is empathy associated with important outcomes of interest to organizations and employees, and (b) can empathy be changed, and if so, how?     

A pre/post evaluation of fatigue,stress and vigilance amongst commercially licensed truck drivers performing a prolonged driving task

Purpose. The main purpose of this research study was to evaluate changes in fatigue, stress and vigilance amongst commercially licensed truck drivers involved in a prolonged driving task. The secondary purpose was to determine whether a new ergonomic seat could help reduce both physical and cognitive fatigue during a prolonged driving task. Two different truck seats were evaluated: an industrial standard seat and a new truck seat prototype. Methods. Twenty male truck drivers were recruited to attend two testing sessions, on two separate days, with each session randomized for seat design. During each session, participants performed two 10-min simulated driving tasks. Between simulated sessions, participants drove a long-haul truck for 90 min. Fatigue and stress were quantified using a series of questionnaires whereas vigilance was measured using a standardized computer test. Results. Seat interactions had a significant effect on fatigue patterns. Conclusion. The new ergonomic seat design holds potential in improving road safety and vehicle accidents due to fatigue-related accidents.