环境资源约束下中国工业绿色全要素水资源效率研究

通过构建RAM-SFA-RAM三阶段工业绿色全要素水资源效率测度模型，对其不同层面的效率值进行多维测度与比较分析，并利用空间Tobit模型对工业绿色全要素水资源效率的驱动机制进行实证检验.效率测度结果表明，环境因素与统计噪音是效率值计算中不可忽视的重要影响因素；全国样本的效率值在2000~2017年期间总体变化趋势是以持续上升为主，但距离理想发展状态还存在较大差距，具体阶段上可划分为“稳增期”、“振落期”和“提速期”；区域层面的检验中，东部效率具有较为显著的领先优势，而中部和东北部效率差异性相对较小，其变化曲线存在明显的“交互性”现象，西部则整体效率偏低；主要经济带的检验中，京津冀地区的工业绿色全要素水资源效率整体上要高于泛珠三角和泛长三角地区.驱动机制检验表明，基于全国样本维度的水资源禀赋、企业技术创新、用水结构和环境规制对工业绿色全要素水资源效率具有正向促进作用，而产业结构、城镇化率表现为负向抑制效应；在区域样本检验中，各影响要素在不同区域之间所呈现出的作用效果存在一定差异性，但产业结构调整、城镇化水平等应引起重视，不同区域需要依据其实际特点采取针对性的改进措施.     

When expressions of fake emotions elicit negative reactions: The role of observers' dialectical thinking

Fake displays of emotions are common in social and organizational settings. It is therefore important to understand their consequences. To reconcile mixed previous findings, we develop a model in which the consequences of expressing fake emotions depend on the observers' level of dialectical thinking, a cognitive style characterized by acceptance of inconsistencies. We propose that observers lower, but not higher, on dialectical thinking may infer that interaction partners who fake emotions are untrustworthy and, in turn, react negatively. We found support for our model in 2 studies. In a field fundraising experiment (Study 1), fundraisers who displayed fake (vs. genuine) happiness received smaller monetary donations and elicited lower intentions to volunteer from donors lower, but not higher, on dialectical thinking. In a laboratory negotiation experiment (Study 2), negotiators who displayed fake anger (vs. genuine anger or no emotion) were trusted less and received higher demands from counterparts lower, but not higher, on dialectical thinking. Trust mediated the moderating effect of dialecticism on the relation between fake anger (vs. genuine anger and no emotion) and demands. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of the findings.     

Improved recovery of repeat intoxicated drivers using fingernails and blood spots to monitor alcohol and other substance abuse

Objectives: This study reports the results of a pilot program in Kenosha County that used a combination of direct biomarkers extracted from blood spots and nails to monitor repeat intoxicated drivers for their use of alcohol and drugs with a detection window spanning from 3 weeks to several months. The objectives were to test whether the direct biomarkers phosphatidylethanol (PEth), ethylglucuronide (EtG), and 5 drug metabolites would (1) help assessors obtain a more objective evaluation of repeat offenders during the assessment interview, (2) allow for timely identification of relapses and improve classification of drivers into risk categories, and (3) predict recidivism by identifying offenders most likely to obtain a subsequent operating while intoxicated (OWI) offense within 4 years of enrollment in the program.

Methods: All (N = 261) repeat offenders were tested using PEth obtained from blood spots and EtG obtained from fingernails; 159 participants were also tested for a 5 drugs of abuse nail panel. Drivers were tested immediately after the assessment interview (baseline) and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after baseline. Based on biomarker results and self-reports of abstinence, offenders were classified into different risk categories and required to follow specific testing timelines based on the program's decision tree.

Results: The baseline analysis shows that 60% of drivers tested positive for alcohol biomarkers (EtG, PEth, or both) at the assessment interview, with lower detection rates (0–11%) for the 5 drug metabolites. The comparison of biomarkers results to self-reports of abstinence identified 28% of all offenders as high risk and assigned them to more frequent testing and more intense monitoring. The longitudinal analysis shows that 56% (completers) of participants completed the program successfully and the remaining 44% (noncompliant) terminated prematurely. Two thirds (68%) of the completers were able to reduce or control their drinking and one third relapsed at least one time during their mandated monitoring periods. After a brief intervention by the assessors, 79% of relapsers tested negative for biomarkers in their repeat tests. The rearrest analysis showed that offenders classified in the noncompliant and relapsers groups were 7 times more likely to receive a new OWI 4 years after enrollment compared to drivers classified as abstainers or controllers. Refractory drivers were monitored the longest and reported no subsequent rearrests.

Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the benefits of more individualized interventions with repeat OWI offenders and calls for further development of multimodal approaches in traffic medicine including those that use direct alcohol biomarkers as evidence-based practices to reduce recidivism.     

Using alcohol intoxication goggles (Fatal Vision® goggles) to detect alcohol related impairment in simulated driving

Objective: Fatal vision goggles (FVGs) are image-distorting equipment used within driver education programs to simulate alcohol-related impairment. However, there is no empirical evidence comparing the behavioral effects associated with wearing FVGs to alcohol intoxication. The purpose of this study was to determine the validity of FVGs in producing alcohol-related impairment in simulated driving.

Methods: Twenty-two healthy males (age: 23 ± 3 years, mean ± SD) participated in a placebo-controlled crossover design study involving 4 experimental trials. In each trial, participants completed a baseline level simulated driving task followed by an experimental driving task, involving one of 4 treatments: (1) a dose of alcohol designed to elicit 0.080% breath alcohol concentration (BrAC; AB), (2) an alcohol placebo beverage (PB), (3) FVG (estimated % blood alcohol concentration [BAC] 0.070–0.100+), and (4) placebo goggles (PGs). The driving tasks included 3 separate scenarios lasting ～5 min each; these were a simple driving scenario, a complex driving scenario, and a hazard perception driving scenario. Selected lateral control parameters (standard deviation of lane position [SDLP]; total number of lane crossings [LCs]) and longitudinal control parameters (average speed; standard deviation of speed [SDSP]; distance headway; minimum distance headway) were monitored during the simple and complex driving scenarios. Latency to 2 different stimuli (choice reaction time [CRT]) was tested in the hazard perception driving scenario. Subjective ratings of mood and attitudes toward driving were also provided during each of the trials.

Results: Neither placebo treatment influenced simulated driving performance. Mean BrAC was 0.060 ± 0.010% at the time of driving on the AB trial. Lateral control: In the simple driving scenario, SDLP and LC were not affected under any of the experimental treatments. However, in the complex driving scenario, significantly greater SDLP was observed on both the FVG and AB trials compared to their respective baseline drives. LC increased significantly from baseline on the AB trial only. Longitudinal control: Speed was not affected by any of the experimental treatments; however, SDSP increased significantly from baseline on the FVG trial. A significant reduction in distance headway and minimum distance headway was detected on the FVG trial compared to baseline. Hazard perception: Neither AB nor FVG trials were influential on CRT. Subjective mood ratings were significantly altered on the AB and FVG trials compared to baseline and placebo conditions. Participants reported reduced willingness and ability to drive under the active treatments (AB and FVG) than the placebo treatments (PB and PG).

Conclusions: FVGs may have some utility in replicating alcohol-related impairment on specific driving performance measurements. Hence, the equipment may offer an alternative approach to researching the impact of alcohol intoxication on simulated driving performance among populations where the provision of alcohol would otherwise be unethical (e.g., prelicensed drivers).     

Transport company safety climate—The impact on truck driver behavior and crash involvement

Objective: The present study investigated the relationships between safety climate and driving behavior and crash involvement.

Methods: A total of 339 company-employed truck drivers completed a questionnaire that measured their perceptions of safety climate, crash record, speed choice, and aberrant driving behaviors (errors, lapses, and violations).

Results: Although there was no direct relationship between the drivers' perceptions of safety climate and crash involvement, safety climate was a significant predictor of engagement in risky driving behaviors, which were in turn predictive of crash involvement.

Conclusions: This research shows that safety climate may offer an important starting point for interventions aimed at reducing risky driving behavior and thus fewer vehicle collisions.     

Sensitivity evaluation of the visual,tactile, and auditory detection response task method while driving

Objectives: In this article, we evaluate the sensitivity to cognitive load of 3 versions of the Detection Response Task method (DRT), proposed in ISO Draft Standard DIS-17488.

Methods: We present a user study with 30 participants in which we compared the sensitivity to cognitive load of visual, audio, and tactile DRT in a simulated driving environment. The amount of cognitive load was manipulated with secondary n-back tasks at 2 levels of difficulty (0-back and 1-back). We also explored whether the DRT method is least sensitive to cognitive load when the stimuli and secondary task are of the same modality. For this purpose, we used 3 forms to present the n-back task stimuli: visual, audio, and tactile. Responses to the task were always vocal. The experiment was based on a between-subject design (the DRT modalities) with 2 levels of within-subject design study (modalities and difficulty of the secondary n-back tasks). The participants' primary task in the study was to drive safely, and a second priority was to answer to DRT stimuli and perform secondary tasks.

Results: The results indicate that all 3 versions of the DRT tested were sensitive to detecting the difference in cognitive load between the reference driving period and driving and engaging in the secondary tasks. Only the visual DRT discriminated between the 0-back and 1-back conditions on mean response time. Contrary to expectations, no interaction was observed between DRT modality and the stimuli modality used for presentation of the secondary tasks.

Conclusions: None of the 3 methods of presenting DRT stimuli showed a consistent advantage in sensitivity in differentiating multiple levels of cognitive load if all response times, hit rates, and secondary task performance are considered. If only response time is considered, the visual presentation of the DRT stimulus used in this study showed some advantages. In interpreting these data, it should be noted that the methods of DRT stimulus presentation varied somewhat from the currently proposed draft ISO standard and it is possible that the relative salience level of the visual DRT stimulus influenced the findings. It is further suggested that more than 2 levels of difficulty of the n-back task should be considered for further investigation of the relative sensitivity of different DRT stimuli modalities. Parameters that indicate change in cognitive load (response time, hit rate, task performance) should be analyzed together in assessing the overall impact on the driver and not individually, in order to obtain a fuller insight of the assessed cognitive load.     

Representativity and univocity of traffic signs and their effect on trajectory movement in a driving simulation task: Warning signs

Objective: The effect of traffic signs on the behavior of drivers is not completely understood. Knowing about how humans process the meaning of signs (not just by learning but instinctively) will improve reaction time and decision making when traveling. The economic, social, and psychological consequences of car accidents are well known.

Methods: This study sounds out which traffic signs are more ergonomic for participants, from a cognitive point of view, and determines, at the same time, their effect in participants' movement trajectories in a driving simulation task.

Results: Results point out that the signs least representative of their meaning produce a greater deviation from the center of the road than the most representative ones.

Conclusions: This study encourages both an in-depth analysis of the effect on movement of roadside signs and the study of how this effect can be modified by the context in which these signs are presented (with the aim to move the research closer to and analyze the data in real contexts). The goal is to achieve clarity of meaning and lack of counterproductive effects on the trajectory of representative signs (those that provoke fewer mistakes in the decision task).     

Are you okay to drive? Commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentrations among restaurant diners

Objective: Drink driving is widely recognized as a major road safety problem. In Australia, health promotion messages encourage monitoring the number of standard drinks consumed prior to driving. This pilot research aimed to investigate commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of diners, including intended drivers, at Sunshine Coast restaurants.

Methods: Five hundred and forty-four diners (n = 260 males) consented to participate in a brief interview and to use a breathalyzer device to measure their BAC.

Results: Forty percent of participants advised they don't drink and drive (34% of males, 45% of females; 67.25% of <17–20 years, 30.5% of 50–59 years), and of the remaining participants, 75% advised they count the number of their drinks (69% of males, 84% of females; 32% of <17–20 years, 82% of 50–59 years), while 10% of participants monitored their BAC by how they were feeling (12% of males, 6% of females). Thirty-seven percent of participants said it was easy/very easy to estimate their BAC (41% of males; 33% of females; 21% of <17–20 years, 43% of 50–59 years). The actual BAC was less than expected for 56% of participants, with one-third underestimating BAC and some intended drivers having an actual BAC in excess of the 0.05 limit.

Conclusions: Given the proportion of diners who reported they count the number of drinks, or use feelings as a way to gauge BAC, coupled with the considerable proportion who underestimated their BAC, a safer public health message is to avoid driving if you intend to drink. In addition, targeted intervention for experienced drivers (and, arguably, drinkers) appears warranted, as every participant aged less than 21 years who stated he or she would drive home indeed had a zero BAC. Interestingly every female driver who stated she would be driving home also had a legal BAC, suggesting gender-specific intervention.     

Influence of driving cycles on exhaust emissions and fuel consumption of gasoline passenger car in Bangkok

The influence of different driving cycles on their exhaust emissions and fuel consumption rate of gasoline passenger car was investigated in Bangkok based on the actual measurements obtained from a test vehicle driving on a standard chassis dynamometer. A newly established Bangkok driving cycle (BDC) and the European driving cycle (EDC) which is presently adopted as the legislative cycle for testing automobiles registered in Thailand were used. The newly developed BDC is constructed using the driving characteristic data obtained from the real on-road driving tests along selected traffic routes. A method for selecting appropriate road routes for real driving tests is also introduced. Variations of keyed driving parameters of BDC with different driving cycles were discussed. The results showed that the HC and CO emission factors of BDC are almost two and four times greater than those of EDC, respectively. Although the difference in the NOx emission factor is small, the value from BDC is still greater than that of EDC by 10%. Under BDC, the test vehicle consumes fuel about 25% more than it does under EDC. All these differences are mainly attributed to the greater proportion of idle periods and higher fluctuations of vehicle speed in the BDC cycle. This result indicated that the exhausted emissions and fuel consumption of vehicles obtained from tests under the legislative modal-type driving cycle (EDC) are significantly different from those actually produced under real traffic conditions especially during peak periods.     

贵州近50年来的径流过程时空演变特征及驱动因素诊断

本文以贵州10个径流站覆盖近50年的实测月径流资料(1956~2000)及19个气象站同期实测资料为基础,结合Mann-Kendall趋势分析和流量历时曲线FDCs等方法,分析了时间变异点(1986年)前后贵州8大主要流域的径流过程的年度和季节变化、洪枯水变化规律及其演变的空间特征。结果表明:(1)从时间规律上看,贵州主要江河近50年间径流变化大部分测站呈现小幅增加趋势,个别下游水文站径流呈明显增加趋势;(2)1987~2000年期间贵州的汛期径流和1956~1986年期间相比更加集中了;(3)贵州大多数水文站月径流洪水指标(Q5)在1986年后有不同幅度增加,而枯水指标(Q95)1986年后涨跌互现。与之对应的洪水指数(Q5/Q50)及枯水指数(Q95/Q50)也存在类似规律;(4)从空间规律上看,贵州西北部地区和东南部地区径流减少,其它地方(主要集中在乌江上游)增加。贵州1986年前后近50年时期内的降水及蒸发的空间规律与其径流变化空间规律是基本吻合的,说明贵州过去近50年来的径流过程变化主要是由气候变化引起的。本文的研究结果对保证并促进贵州地区区域水资源、生态与环境和谐健康的可持续发展具有非常重要的战略意义和科学价值。