人群的自然和社会属性分类下PM2.5对心血管疾病的影响

为了研究人群在自然属性和社会属性分类下的效应修饰作用,利用2005~2011年北京市大气PM_2.5日均浓度、气象要素及循环系统疾病每日死亡人数数据,根据不同年龄、性别及学历将人群分组,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型（GAM）,定量评价大气PM_2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响.单污染物模型和多污染物模型结果表明,PM_2.5为影响循环系统疾病每日死亡人数的主要大气污染物.北京市空气中PM_2.5的浓度每增加10μg/m³,循环系统疾病总死亡人数增加0.50%（95% CI：0.36,0.63）.不同人群的易感程度不同,各人群死亡人数的增加范围为0.23~0.71%,女性、60~74岁人群、文盲人群的健康风险相对较高.在文盲人群中,老年（60+）女性占比为66.2%,为了分离社会属性人群分类中可能存在的自然属性因素干扰,本文去除其中老年、女性这两个混杂因素的影响,文盲人群健康风险仍然大于较高学历的人群.年龄和性别因素叠加在学历因素上,可能加大低学历人群的健康风险,对于这部分叠加了自然因素和社会因素双重敏感性的人群应给与重点关注.     

基于平面波导型荧光免疫传感器的双酚A检测适用性研究

双酚A是一种环境内分泌干扰物,逐渐受到国内外广泛关注.平面波导型荧光免疫传感器可以对水样中存在的痕量双酚A进行快速高灵敏度检测.在最优检测条件下测得双酚A标准曲线的检出限为(0.04±0.007)μg·L-1,线性区间为0.16~22.40μg·L-1,半抑制浓度为(1.67±0.47)μg·L-1.加入0.5%的EDTA到样品溶液中可以削弱水体硬度的干扰,并在最优条件下测得4种实际水样的加标回收率在88%~111%之间,相对标准偏差小于15%,表明该方法可以运用于实际水样中双酚A的检测.     

Marine Ecological Research in New Zealand: Developing Predictive Models through the Study of No-Take Marine Reserves

Abstract:  New Zealand established its first no-take marine reserve more than 25 years ago. Twenty no-take marine reserves have now been created, although few of these are considered comparable. We considered whether existing conceptual models of population and community structure based only on data from exploited systems lack the baseline information of natural states necessary to make accurate predictions for new reserves. Three of the oldest and best-studied reserves are situated on the northeastern coast of New Zealand. These reserves are considered broadly comparable replicates, and research has shown the recovery of previously exploited predator populations and the reestablishment of trophic controls over community structure and productivity. None of the major changes was predicted when the reserves were created. All the observations from and experimental tests of hypotheses in these three ecologically comparable reserves have provided predictive models for future reserves. Recent surveys in newly created reserves, however, suggest that these models are bioregion and habitat specific. In these new reserves the recovery of previously exploited predators was predicted but did not always occur. Where trends were correctly predicted, the speed and amplitude of the changes were not accurately predicted. Research in New Zealand suggests that it is not yet possible to predict explicit outcomes for newly created reserves and less possible to predict detailed results for systems of reserves. Results from a representative system of reserves, including all major habitats within all bioregions and broadly comparable reserves, are needed. Such a system will enable the range and variety of natural ecosystem dynamics to be investigated and provide the controls necessary to measure the effects of exploitation.     

Combined molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical study of (+)-multifidene structure and conformation

Molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical tools have been used to explore the conformational space of (+)(3S,4S)-multifidene bioactive compounds. All the computations have been performed in the absence and presence of the solvent, simulated by the explicit introduction of a number of water molecules or by the polarized continuum model (PCM). Three conformational minima, both in vacuo and in water (simulated by PCM tool), have been confirmed at ab initio level of theory (B3LYP and MP2). All minima lie in a very narrow range of energy, and the interconversion between them is possible with a small amount of energy expense.     

Effects of the Surrounding Matrix on Tree Recruitment in Amazonian Forest Fragments

Abstract:  Little is known about how the surrounding modified matrix affects tree recruitment in fragmented forests. We contrasted effects of two different matrix types, Vismia - and Cecropia -dominated regrowth, on recruitment of pioneer tree species in forest fragments in central Amazonia. Our analyses were based on 22, 1-ha plots in seven experimental forest fragments ranging in size from 1 to 100 ha. By 13 to 17 years after fragmentation, the population density of pioneer trees was significantly higher in plots surrounded by Vismia regrowth than in plots surrounded by Cecropia regrowth, and the species composition and dominance of pioneers differed markedly between the two matrix types. Cecropia sciadophylla was the most abundant pioneer in fragments surrounded by Cecropia regrowth (constituting nearly 50% of all pioneer trees), whereas densities of species in Vismia -surrounded fragments were distributed more evenly. Thus the surrounding matrix had a strong influence on patterns of tree recruitment in Amazonian forest fragments.     

STREAM DEPLETION BY WELLS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN-COLORADO1

The agricultural production from the Lower South Platte Basin in Colorado represents a significant portion of the state economy. Until the early 1950's the production had developed almost exclusively by use of river water. Drought conditions combined with improved well technology resulted in an inordinate amount of well development in the valley during the period 1952-56. These wells were used for supplemental supply in many cases, but the application of sprinkler irrigation brought many acres of here-to-fore dry land into irrigated production. As a result of the vast amounts of groundwater withdrawal by the newly developed wells, senior surface appropriators found a decreasing amount of water available for use in the streams. The legislature, observing the doctrine of prior appropriation, ruled that all surface and ground water in a tributary would be treated and administered as one resource. This, of course, spelled doom for the well-oriented segment of the economy. Analysis of a segment of the river on an inflow-outflow basis was made with careful determination of all inflow-outflow in the study reach to include correlations required to determine ungaged side-channel in-flow and unmetered irrigation wells. Results indicate that wells have intercepted normal return flows to the river resulting in a decreased amount of surface water during the irrigation season. Stream depletion appears to equal the expected consumptive use of well water which ranged between 40% to 50% of the groundwater extraction.     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

SYNTHESIS OF FLOW-DURATION CURVES FOR UNREGULATED STREAMS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE1

ABSTRACT: Flow-duration curves are concise pictures of flow variability at a point on a stream, and provide essential information for all water-resource planning. In New Hampshire, useful estimates of flow-duration curves for ungaged points on unregulated streams can be made using only information readily available from contour maps: 1) area of the basin above the point of interest; and 2) either the measured mean basin elevation or the elevations of the highest and lowest points in the basin. Measured or estimated mean basin elevation is then used in regression equations to estimate mean flow QC and the flow exceeded 95% of the time, Q₉₅. QC is assumed to occur at the 27% exceedance frequency. Q₀₂, Q₀₅, and Q₃₀ are estimated as multiples of QC. Equations are provided for calculating 95% confidence intervals for future estimates using the method. The dependence of mean flow on elevation is due to positive vertical precipitation gradients and negative vertical evapotranspiration gradients. The dependence of Q₉₅ on elevation appears to be due largely to the fact that it rains more often, that snowmelt takes longer, and that evapotranspiration is reduced at higher elevations.     

Concentrations of inorganic elements in 20 municipal waters in Sweden before and after treatment – links to human health

The water chemistry of 20 municipal water treatment plants in southern Sweden, representing various bedrock situations, and water qualities, were investigated. Four water samples, raw and treated, were collected from each plant and analyzed by predominantly ICP-OES and ICP-MS at four occasions from June to December, 2001. The concentrations of Ca, Mg, K, Na, HCO₃ and a number of micronutrients, varied considerably in treated waters from the studied plants (ranges; Ca: 9.1–53.7 mg L⁻¹, Mg: 1.4–10.9 mg L⁻¹, K: 1.1–4.8 mg L⁻¹, Na; 5.4–75.6 mg L⁻¹, HCO₃: 27–217 mg L⁻¹). The elimination of Fe and Mn from raw water was efficient in all treatments investigated, giving concentrations in treated waters below the detection limits at some plants. Softening filters gave waters with Ca-concentrations comparable to the softest waters in this study. Adjustment of pH by use of chemicals like lye, soda or lime, modified the consumer water composition significantly, besides raising the pH. It was estimated that drinking water contributed to approximately 2.2–13% of the daily Ca uptake, if the gastrointestinal uptake efficiency from food and water was estimated to be around 50%. The corresponding figures for Mg was 1.0–7% and for F 0–59%. None of the studied elements showed any significant time trends in raw or treated waters during the follow-up period. The concentrations of potentially toxic metals such as Al, Pb and U were low and did not indicate risks for adverse health effects (ranges; Al: 0.5–2.3 μg L⁻¹, Pb: 0–0.3 μg L⁻¹, U: 0.2.5 μg L⁻¹).     

Dip-angle influence on areal DNAPL recovery by co-solvent flooding with and without pre-flooding

A two-dimensional (2D) laboratory model was used to study effects of gravity on areal recovery of a representative dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminant by an alcohol pre-flood and co-solvent flood in dipping aquifers. Recent studies have demonstrated that injection of alcohol and co-solvent solutions can be used to reduce in-situ the density of DNAPL globules and displace the contaminant from the source zone. However, contact with aqueous alcohol reduces interfacial tension and causes DNAPL swelling, thus facilitating risk of uncontrolled downward DNAPL migration. The 2D laboratory model was operated with constant background gradient flow and a DNAPL spill was simulated using tetrachloroethene (PCE). The spill was dispersed to a trapped, immobile PCE saturation by a water flood. Areal PCE recovery was studied using a double-triangle well pattern to simulate a remediation scheme consisting of an alcohol pre-flood using aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10% vol.) followed by a co-solvent flood using a solution of ethylene glycol (65%) and 1-propanol (35%). Experiments were conducted with the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane and compared to experiments at the 15 degrees and 30 degrees dip-angle orientations. Injection was applied either in the downward or upward direction of flow. Experimental results were compared to theoretical predictions for flood front stability and used to evaluate effects of gravity on areal PCE recovery. Sensitivity experiments were performed to evaluate effects of the alcohol pre-flood on PCE areal recovery. For experiments conducted with the alcohol pre-flood and the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane, results indicate that 89-93% of source zone PCE was recovered. With injection oriented downward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 70-77% for a 15 degrees dip angle and 57-59% for a 30 degrees dip angle. With injection oriented upward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 57-60% at the 30 degrees dip angle, which was similar to PCE recovery for injection in the downward flow direction. Lower areal PCE recovery at greater dip angles in either direction of flow was attributed to DNAPL swelling and migration, flood front instabilities and bypassing of the displaced fluid past the extraction wells during the alcohol pre-flood. Additional results demonstrate that the use of an alcohol pre-flood can be beneficial in improving DNAPL recovery in the horizontal orientation, but pre-flooding may reduce areal recovery efficiency in dip-angle orientations. This study also demonstrates the use of theoretical perturbation (fingering) analysis in predicting NAPL recovery efficiency for flooding processes in remediating aquifers with dip angles.