绵阳市大气降水pH值时空分布及酸雨成因研究

通过对绵阳市9个测点1998－1999年大气降水监测数据的统计分析，并结合历史数据，对大气降水pH值的时空分布及酸雨成因进行了研究。结果表明：绵阳市大气降水酸化严重，除主要受本地区大气污染影响外，还受大气中、长距离输送的影响。     

中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析

中国东南沿海地区是中国经济最发达，人口最稠密的地区，同时也是世界上受台风影响最严重的地区之一。本文以上海经9个沿海重点为例，通过对《台风年鉴》数据的分析处理，提取了台风关键参数并进行了统计分析与建模；利用Monte Carlo抽样和成熟台风风场模型模拟，得到了极值风速序列，对年极值风速序列进行极值风速统计分析，得到了不同重现期和地貌的极值风速，结果与实测风速比较吻合。     

HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN CHICAGO: INCREASING FREQUENCY,ALTERED IMPACTS,AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Operations of a dense raingage network in the Chicago area since 1989 provided data to assess the temporal and spatial distributions of heavy rainstorms. The 12‐year average was 4.4 storms per year, 40 percent more than in the 1948 to 1980 period, reflecting an ongoing Midwestern increase in heavy rains. The total rainfall from the 53 heavy rainstorms maximized over the city, reflecting previous observations that the influence of the city and Lake Michigan on the atmosphere causes an increase in heavy rains. Impacts from the record high number of eight storms in 2001 revealed that efforts to control flooding including the Deep Tunnel system, had reduced street and basement flooding in the moderate intensity storms, but the two most intense storms, each with 100‐year rainfall values, led to excessive flooding and a need to release flood waters into Lake Michigan. Results suggest continuing increases in the number of heavy rainstorms in future years, which has major implications for water managers in Chicago and elsewhere.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE1

To aid in planning and design of additional flood protection on the Lower Rio Grande, the Hydroraeteorological Branch prepared a probable maximum precipitation study for the International Boundary and Water Commission (United States and Mexico) and the Republic of Mexico. Five drainages from 2,000 to over 17,000 square miles in area between Falcon and Anzalduas Dams including Rio San Juan and Rio Alamo in Mexico are the areas of concern. The great rains of hurricane Beulah, September 19–24, 1967 verified that additional protection is needed. Procedures for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are described. A particular problem was to estimate rainfall potential for the Sierra Madre Oriental in Rio San Juan and Alamo drainages. These mountains form a north-south windward-facing slope and barrier of over 7000 feet in elevation. A detailed study was made of rains from hurricane Beulah. The storm produced the greatest known rain depths in North America for 50,000 square miles or greater, and durations longer than 48 hours.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.     

北京沙尘天气与源地气象条件的关系

本介绍了影响北京地区沙尘天气的沙尘源地,沙尘暴发生的条件和传输路径,分析了沙尘暴源地的气候要素特征及其对北京地区沙尘天气的影响,说明了北京沙尘天气发生和加剧的原因,影响北京地区沙尘天气的境外源地主要位于哈萨克斯坦,俄罗斯以及蒙古国境内,境内源地主要位于内蒙古和新疆,以及甘肃和青海的部分地区,沙尘天气发生必须具备三个条件：沙源,大风,气流辐合（垂直对流）,有沙源不一定起沙,但无沙源一定不起沙,沙尘暴源地的气候特征主要表现为冬季寒冷,夏季炎热,全年降水稀水,影响北京的沙尘传输路径,最主要的有两条,即西路传输和北路传输,北京沙尘天气与沙尘暴源地的春季降水比较结果表明,北京地区沙尘暴和浮尘天气发生次数与沙尘源区春季大气降水量有比较显的负相关关系,北京扬沙天气的发生与沙源区冬春季降水量相关关系不显,说明北京扬沙天气起因与源区降水没有明显的关系,北京扬沙天气主要受本地的自然条件和人为活动的影响。     

The Volta Lake and Declining Rainfall and Streamflows in the Volta River Basin

This paper looks at the rainfall and streamflow patterns over two distinct time periods, i.e., 1950–1970 and 1971–1991 within the two most prominent catchments in the Volta river system – White Volta and the Oti basins. The first period (1950–1970) represents relatively vegetated catchments and low population whilst the latter (1971–1990) represents intense land use practices resulting from increased population that have severely degraded the environment. These two catchments are among the most significant contributors to the Volta lake. The Volta lake, which was formed between 1962 and 1966 in Ghana and created primarily for hydroelectric power generation, will probably be one of the greatest man-made lakes for a long time. It produces 912MW of electricity at its maximum operating capacity. Recently, there have been declines in the lake levels resulting most probably from inadequate rainfall and/or runoff from the river catchments that feed the lake. Comparisons of runoffs for the two time periods show reductions in mean streamflows of 32.5% at Saboba on the Oti and 23.1% at Nawuni on the White Volta.     

印度夏季风降水周期性研究

印度夏季风降水(ISMR)在南亚气候系统中是一个非常重要的内容,近年来对它的研究日益受到人们的重视。为了深入认识ISMR的变化特征,主要利用Scargle周期图和小波变换研究了1871-2004年间ISMR变化的周期性。结果表明,ISMR的周期性波动非常复杂,相应的周期参数具有明显的时变特征。文中还简单讨论了ISMR周期时变的可能原因。     

山东省的干旱化特征分析

利用山东省近50多年的农业旱灾灾情资料和降水资料，分析了干旱灾情和致灾因子的变化特征。结果指出：20世纪70年代后期以来，6—9月份西太平洋副高脊线位置偏南，山东省的汛期降水量有明显的减少趋势，导致干旱灾害的受灾面积明显增大。进入90年代以后，与1961—1976年相比，干燥度指数普遍增大，半岛东部及黄河以北地区干燥程度增大得最为明显，半岛东部、鲁东南及鲁南的大部分地区由湿润区演变成了半湿润区，而黄河以北绝大部分地区及鲁中北部、半岛西北部的局部地区则由半湿润区演变成了半干旱地区。造成干燥度变化的主要原因是降水量的变化，其次是积温的变化。     

Sediment Production From Forest Roads in Western Montana1

Abstract: Unpaved roads are a primary sediment source in forested watersheds. Validation of erosion models and improvements to road management require information on road erosion rates and the factors controlling erosion. This study measured sediment yields from twenty ～0.05 ha unsurfaced (native) road plots in Belt Supergroup and glacial till parent materials of western Montana, and investigated the factors controlling erosion. Annual sediment yields for individual plots ranged from 0 to 96.9 Mg/ha/yr over 3 years (2002‐2004). Annual mean sediment yield ranged from 2.1 Mg/ha in 2003 to 9.9 Mg/ha in 2004 with an overall mean of 5.4 Mg/ha/yr. The mean of log‐transformed sediment yields for sites in glacial till parent materials was higher than Belt Supergroup parent materials (p = 0.063). A regression model with road slope, time since last grading, roadbed gravel content, and precipitation as predictive variables explained 68% of the variability in sediment yield (F = 28.2; p < 0.0001). Road erosion in western Montana is limited by low erodibility of the dominant parent materials and low rainfall. Management procedures such as reducing the frequency of grading can significantly reduce sediment yields from forest roads.