基于模糊模式识别的模糊综合评价在高层建筑火灾危险评价中的应用

针对高层建筑火灾危险的特点,建立了高层建筑火灾危险评价的指标体系,并应用层次分析法确定了其权重。根据高层建筑火灾危险评价系统具有多因素、多层次的特点,采用模糊综合评价方法;针对模糊综合评价的不足之处,提出把权广义距离之和最小模糊模式识别运用到模糊综合评价当中,建立了基于模糊模式识别的模糊综合评价模型;该评价模型避免了单因素矩阵的确定和模糊算子的选择问题,用安全状态特征值来表征最终的评价结果,能使评价结果更加准确,可操作性强。通过对陕西某高层建筑火灾危险评价实例证明,该模型具有较好的应用价值,为日常的安全管理和性能化防火设计提供了有用依据。     

BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

火灾科学需深入研究的课题探讨

火灾科学是系统的科学,它涉及多个技术领域。从科学发展和现实角度,提出当前的火灾科学在城市消防规划、高大空间建筑防火设计综合方法、多层地下交通枢纽防火研究、安全疏散心理和机理研究、火灾自动报警系统的关联研究、建筑防排烟技术研究、建筑结构耐火性能研究等10个技术领域需深入研究的课程,以最终实现基础理论、实用方法、先进技术和科学管理一体化。     

城乡接合部居民楼火灾风险评价及防控对策研究

为了准确探究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故致因机理,预防与控制城乡接合部日常生产与生活过程中引发火灾事故的有效途径,建立信息面更全、实际性更强的火灾风险评估模型是目前行之有效的手段。基于湖南省某地发生火灾事故的实际情况,根据事故树分析法,以城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故为顶事件构建事故树,计算得到事故树的最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,研究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故的发生模式、致因因素及影响程度,为改善城乡接合部居民楼火灾安全提供重要的理论依据,并提出相应的防控措施及对策。     

Proposing of new building scheme and composite towards global warming mitigation for Malaysia

The building sector has been regarded as a potential sector where there is large capacity to reduce the climate change effect. This study has proposed solutions to mitigate environmental impacts and achieve low CO₂ emission from residential sector. Therefore, full life cycle assessment (LCA) has been run to assess the CO₂ emission and its effect on the atmosphere and climate change. Based on the result, timber scheme is the best choice due to releasing less CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. However, house builders in Malaysia have almost completely neglected timber as a building material, with timber use as building components reduced to 5%. In this study, LCA Software was used to assess CO₂ emissions from different wall construction. The alternative building scheme has been made by reinforce steel stud, wooden beam and timber wall (S8) to improve the scheme deficiency while releasing less CO₂ emissions compared to other schemes. Therefore, S8 has a decreased CO₂ effect by 85% less than precast concrete frame and 90% less than brick over their lifetime. (S8) increased the load bearing compared to conventional timber beam. Thus, new scheme S8 could be replaced by current scheme and promote more adjustable scheme for Malaysian housing.     

Why social values cannot be changed for the sake of conservation

The hope for creating widespread change in social values has endured among conservation professionals since early calls by Aldo Leopold for a “land ethic.” However, there has been little serious attention in conservation to the fields of investigation that address values, how they are formed, and how they change. We introduce a social–ecological systems conceptual approach in which values are seen not only as motivational goals people hold but also as ideas that are deeply embedded in society's material culture, collective behaviors, traditions, and institutions. Values define and bind groups, organizations, and societies; serve an adaptive role; and are typically stable across generations. When abrupt value changes occur, they are in response to substantial alterations in the social–ecological context. Such changes build on prior value structures and do not result in complete replacement. Given this understanding of values, we conclude that deliberate efforts to orchestrate value shifts for conservation are unlikely to be effective. Instead, there is an urgent need for research on values with a multilevel and dynamic view that can inform innovative conservation strategies for working within existing value structures. New directions facilitated by a systems approach will enhance understanding of the role values play in shaping conservation challenges and improve management of the human component of conservation.     

Capacity building for food justice in England: the contribution of charity-led community food initiatives

This paper discusses the extent to which charity-led initiatives can contribute to capacity building for food justice in England. The paper draws on evaluations of two projects run by the charity Garden Organic: the Master Gardener Programme, operating a network of volunteers who mentor households, schools and community groups to support local food growing, and the Sowing New Seeds programme, which engages “Seed Stewards” to work with communities to encourage the growing and cooking of “exotic” crops. Based on qualitative data about peoples’ motivations for participation and the benefits that are experienced, we interpret these projects as examples of capacity building for food justice. We suggest that whilst currently depoliticised, the “quiet” process of reskilling and awareness raising that occurs through shared gardening projects could have transformative potential for people’s relationship with food. Finally, we use our findings to raise critical questions and propose future research about food justice concepts and practices.     

Gender differences in public office workers’ satisfaction,subjective symptoms and musculoskeletal complaints in workplace and office environments

This study investigates differences between male and female public office workers’ satisfaction levels, sick building syndrome (SBS) symptoms and musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) complaints in workplace and office environments. Questionnaire surveys were performed in 30 offices from 15 public institutions. Male and female workers of the same age were coupled and selected from each office, gathering a total of 120 male and 120 female subjects. The results show that differences exist between genders in noise and lighting satisfaction levels, SBS-related symptoms (eye, nose, skin) and MSD complaints of hand/wrist/finger, while there is no difference in overall satisfaction level of office environments. The study also suggests that office design for public office workers should take into account gender differences in preventing MSDs and also SBS. The findings of this study are expected to serve as basic data for designing effective public office environments.     

基于品牌创建模型的主题公园可持续发展研究

通过对主题公园研究文献的综述分析,指出主题公园研究中品牌化研究较为匮乏.而中国主题公园近二十年的发展历程表明,主题公园存在的生命周期短暂性现象的主要原因是缺乏品牌创新.从生命周期及可持续发展的视角,提出了以品牌为核心的主题公园运营模式,以此为指导构建了包括概念层、主体层以及基础层三个层面的主题公园品牌创建模型,即通过对动态市场的研究,设计、宣传和推广自身的原创品牌,在获得相应的品牌价值之后,将品牌价值向外延伸,通过系统内各部分的紧密合作,获得主题公园可持续发展的内在驱动力.最后,着重从原创品牌的构建、品牌价值的延伸和保障因素兰方面,提出了基于品牌创建模型的主题公园可持续发展策略.该策略表明:主题公园必须在丰厚的文化内涵和更高的游客体验价值基础上强化自身品牌的构建和发展,在品牌站稳于市场时要适当适度地进行品牌价值延伸,这才能保证主题公园经营的可持续发展.     

The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.