Evaluating Nonpoint Pollution Policy Using a Tightly Coupled Spatial Decision Support System

Policy makers often must rely on the cumulative impact of independent actions taken by local landowners to achieve environmental goals. The connection between policy, regulation, and local action, however, is often not well understood and, thus, the impact of proposed policies may be difficult to predict. In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy scenarios for agricultural set aside programs (e.g., the conservation reserve program administered by the United States Department of Agriculture) in reducing nonpoint pollution. Two alternative policy scenarios are developed and analyzed; one based on the erodibility index (detachment), the other sediment yield (transport). An estimate of the cumulative impact of associated land use change on nonpoint pollution is made using the AGNPS distributed parameter watershed model. This work is completed within the Cypress Creek watershed in southern Illinois. An analysis of the resulting data suggests that the most efficacious regulatory strategy for achieving nonpoint water pollution goals depends, in part, on place-specific land use patterns. This conclusion provides a solid argument for place-based regulatory strategies.     

Using Multicriteria Methods in Environmental Planning and Management

In environmental planning and decision processes several alternatives are analyzed in terms of multiple noncommensurate criteria, and many different stakeholders with conflicting preferences are involved. Based on our experience in real-life applications, we discuss how multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods can be used successfully in such processes. MCDA methods support these processes by providing a framework for collecting, storing, and processing all relevant information, thus making the decision process traceable and transparent. It is therefore possible to understand and explain why, under several conflicting preferences, a particular decision was made. The MCDA framework also makes the requirements for new information explicit, thus supporting the allocation of resources for the process.     

基于多目标决策的室内空气质量评价模型

在室内空气质量各单项评价指标的基础上，应用运筹学的决策理论，建立室内空气质量评价模型。并通过实例应用此模型对室内空气品质进行了评价研究，取得了满意的结果。与其他评价方法相比，该评价模型结构严谨、计算简便、结果合理、分辨率高。为室内空气质量评价提供了一种简单而适用的评价方法。     

Integrated model for renewable energy planning in Turkey

All economic sectors are associated with energy use; therefore, government organizations aim to supply sustainable energy for human needs and economic growth. In particular, increased environmental concerns of the public in Turkey have impacted policymaking for renewable energy (RE) management in Turkey. The primary objective for RE sources of the Turkish Ministry of Energy is to ensure that 30% of the share of electricity production is from RE resources in 2023. In this paper, the integrated multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model is presented to determine effective allocation of RE supply for seven different geographical regions in Turkey for the period of 2017 to 2024. The integrated model consists of two different stages. The first stage involves qualitative evaluations of RE sources for seven geographical regions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine criteria priorities and overall ratings of geographical regions across determined criteria for RE sources are computed. The second stage of the integrated model consists of a multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model. The proposed multi-objective linear programming model is coded in MPL (Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using the GUROBI 5.1.0 solver. The output of the integrated model presents the total supply amount of RE sources for geographical regions in planning period. The ε-constraints method is applied to compute the total supply amount of RE from geographical regions for the period of 2017 to 2024. In this study, a systematic decision-making model is generated to allocate renewable energy sources to the geographical regions. The presented model integrates qualitative evaluations and quantitative parameters of different geographical regions to determine the optimal supply amount of RE. The obtained results are consistent with the potential quantities of RE alternatives in geographical regions, regional specifications, and social requirements.     

DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

灾难事件后继风险决策

对小概率/高风险的灾难事件的后继风险决策进行探讨,着重在决策的认知神经经济模型框架下,讨论灾难事件后继风险决策的影响因素。灾难事件后人们的风险觉知、信念和假定、经验等认知因素以及灾后情绪因素对于决策分别有不同的影响;人们灾后决策的特点为决策更多直觉化而较少运用理性分析;灾难后继决策有随时间变化的趋势,灾难事件后人们为寻求安全感而出现"损失偏差"(loss bias),该偏差在"获得"和"损失"两种条件下的影响是不同的。灾后风险决策的内在机制或可用思维和决策的双加工系统(dual-process)模型来解释。最后展望了灾难事件后继决策进一步的研究方向。     

水污染突发事件：演化模型与应急管理

概述了突发事件演化研究的现状，总结了现阶段中国水污染突发事件的典型案例，研究了事件的演化过程，提出把社会因素和全过程干预作为水污染突发事件演化动因的一个重要方面，并在此基础上分析了水污染突发事件演化的主要动力因素，运用灾害学、应急管理、环境科学等相关理论构建了事件演化的动力因素体系，最后从系统分析的角度构建了水污染突发事件演化模型。研究表明：社会因素和应急干预对水污染突发事件的演化具有推动作用；事件演化具有阶段性，不同阶段的动力因素存在差异；水污染突发事件应急管理具有多目标性，单一目标应急管理不能有效控制水污染突发事件演化。研究水污染突发事件演化机理可为政府有效地预警与事件初期的应急决策提供重要的理论依据。     

Hazardous waste indicators for national decision makers

Indicators and indices are important tools that assist decision makers to formulate and implement plans for management at local, national and international levels. Four indicators for hazardous waste management are described that have recently been adopted within the United Nations framework of Indicators of Sustainable Development. Although these four indicators will be useful tools, the need for a broader range of policy-relevant qualitative and quantitative indicators, proxy indicators and indices is outlined. The argument is advanced that in order for all nations to better manage the range of hazardous waste issues, including waste generation, export/import and disposal, a set of innovative indicators and indices is required. Useful indicators and indices are described that could be used to link and quantify likely environmental, ecosystem and health impacts and risks especially from hazardous waste disposal. Indicators are also suggested that could be used to illustrate the shift in industrial strategy away from end-of-pipe processes towards waste recycling, cleaner production and integrated life-cycle analysis. It was concluded that until the lack of reliable and harmonized data on hazardous waste is addressed, indicator development and use by national and international decision makers cannot readily be implemented.