区域洪水灾害风险评估体系(Ⅰ)——原理与方法

区域洪水灾害风险评估是一个新的研究领域。从洪水灾害系统的概念出发,首先阐述了洪水灾害风险管理系统、洪水风险评估及风险类型划分;然后从指标选取原则、指标层次结构、指标量化、风险等级、风险指数等方面构建了洪水灾害风险评估指标体系;接着分析了矢量面状及栅格点状的洪水灾害风险评估单元;最后,介绍了适合区域洪水灾害风险评估的层次分析法、模糊综合评价法及空间分析方法。     

航班起飞过程的风险识别与控制

飞机起飞阶段是事故多发阶段,为了进行风险识别与控制,设计了定性判别方法和定量计算仿真算法,并以具体飞机坠毁事故为例分析了安全裕度.分别计算了飞机冲出跑道的速度、距离和逃生时间.中断起飞的速度与时间,是火灾发生后的判断关键,也构成了飞机起飞事故的裕度.结果表明,中断起飞的安全裕度比坠毁的大,且关于中断起飞的规定有矛盾之处;用于逃生的90 s规则高于中断起飞的决断速度的限制规定.该分析方法为处理危急时刻的两难决策问题提供了理论指导.     

Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.     

U and Th in some brown coals of Serbia and Montenegro and their environmental impact

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: The objective of this paper is to determine and compare the concentrations of U and Th in soft to hard brown (lignite to sub-bituminous) coals of Serbia and Montenegro. It also presents comparison of the obtained data on U and Th concentrations with the published data on coals located in some other countries of the world. Almost the whole coal production of Serbia and Montenegro is used as feed coals for combustion in thermal power plants. METHODS: Channel samples from open pit and underground mines and core samples were collected for hard and soft brown coals. For the analysis the samples were decomposed using microwave technique. Obtained solutions containing U and Th were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) using NIST standards. RESULTS: Concentration of U from the investigated basins and the corresponding mine fields ranges within 0.60-70.10 mg/kg, 0.65-3.20 mg/kg, 0.95-6.59 mg/kg, 1.20-6.05 mg/kg, 0.80-6.66 mg/kg, 0.18-89.90 mg/kg, 0.19-4.14 mg/kg, and 0.28-3.52 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. Concentration of Th ranges within 0.20-2.60 mg/kg, 0.84-6.57 mg/kg, 1.48-6.48 mg/kg, 0.12-2.71 mg/kg, 0.13-4.95 mg/kg, 0.14-3.48 mg/kg, 0.29-3.56 mg/kg, and 0.17-1.89 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. DISCUSSION: Brown coal from Senje-Resavica, Kolubara, Kostolac and Pljevlja is characterized by low U concentration. Coals form the Krepoljin, Soko Banja and Sjenica basins have slightly higher U concentrations than the mentioned group. The highest concentration of U is characteristic for the coal from the Bogovina East field. Concentration of Th in coals from Serbia and Montenegro has proved to be low. Out of all investigated coal basins, only the coal from the Krepoljin and Kolubara basins has high concentration of Th. The hydrothermally altered rocks of the Timok dacite-andesite complex, representing the basement of the Bogovina basin, could be a potential source of U, especially at the bottom part of the Lower seam of the Bogovina East field. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that brown coals in Serbia and Montenegro (soft to hard brown coals or lignite to sub-bituminous) contain low levels of U (5.30 mg/kg, average value and 2.10 mg/kg geometric mean value) and Th (1.80 mg/kg, average value and 1.12 mg/kg geometric mean value). There are some obvious differences in concentration of U and Th in coals from different basins in Serbia and Montenegro. The approximate value for U and Th release mainly from power plants was 644.33 t and 983.46 t, respectively within the period 1965-2000 for the studied mines in Serbia, and 23.76 t and 15.05 t for the Potrlica mine (Montenegro) within the period 1965-1997. RECOMMENDATIONS: The coals in Serbia and Montenegro show no identifiable unfavourable impact on the surrounding environment, due to low natural radioactive concentration of U and Th, but further investigations concerning human health should be performed. PERSPECTIVES: Preliminary research revealed that in some Serbian coals (and, particularly, parts of the coal seam) U and Th content are rather high. Such coals should be carefully studied, as well as U and Th concentrations in ash, fly ash, waste disposals, nearby soil and ground water. Further studies should include determination of the radioactivity of all these products, and estimation of possible health impact.     

A Procedure for NEPA Assessment of Selenium Hazards Associated With Mining

This paper gives step-by-step instructions for assessing aquatic selenium hazards associated with mining. The procedure was developed to provide the U.S. Forest Service with a proactive capability for determining the risk of selenium pollution when it reviews mine permit applications in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The procedural framework is constructed in a decision-tree format in order to guide users through the various steps, provide a logical sequence for completing individual tasks, and identify key decision points. There are five major components designed to gather information on operational parameters of the proposed mine as well as key aspects of the physical, chemical, and biological environment surrounding it — geological assessment, mine operation assessment, hydrological assessment, biological assessment, and hazard assessment. Validation tests conducted at three mines where selenium pollution has occurred confirmed that the procedure will accurately predict ecological risks. In each case, it correctly identified and quantified selenium hazard, and indicated the steps needed to reduce this hazard to an acceptable level. By utilizing the procedure, NEPA workers can be confident in their ability to understand the risk of aquatic selenium pollution and take appropriate action. Although the procedure was developed for the Forest Service it should also be useful to other federal land management agencies that conduct NEPA assessments, as well as regulatory agencies responsible for issuing coal mining permits under the authority of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) and associated Section 401 water quality certification under the Clean Water Act. Mining companies will also benefit from the application of this procedure because priority selenium sources can be identified in relation to specific mine operating parameters. The procedure will reveal the point(s) at which there is a need to modify operating conditions to meet environmental quality goals. By recognizing concerns early in the NEPA process, it may be possible for a mining company to match operational parameters with environmental requirements, thereby increasing the likelihood that the permit application will be approved.     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

青岛工业与资源灰色关联分析

本文应用灰色关联分析方法研究了青岛地区主导工业对资源的依赖状态及不同工业行业之产出对各类资源投入的反应程度,以灰关联树反映工业经济与资源复合系统之整体及不同层次子系统的耦合关系,定量揭示工业经济效益主导变量与各类资源变量的动态联系,从资源高效利用的角度探讨了青岛工业产业结构调整和优化的方向及区域经济与环境效益相协调的可能途径。