A “RATIONAL” POLICY FOR THE ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES1

ABSTRACT: The present energy and environmental crises are due to increasing per capita demands as well as increasing populations. The role that traditional pricing policies have played in promoting these demands is discussed. The reduction or stabilizing of per capita demands is advocated through the use of Conservational Pricing mechanisms which charge higher average prices for high consumption. An example of the effect of Conservational Pricing in the water supply industry is given.     

跨世纪时期的世界矿产资源形势和我国的对策

本文研究分析了世界资源、尤其是矿产资源的供需形势,以及全球资源紧张与危机的状况和发展趋势。结合我国资源状况和国情,从经济、社会长期发展战略角度,论述了客观分析、参与研究国际及我国社会基础资源问题的重要性、紧迫性,并提出建立我国资源供需持续、稳定、协调发展的方略对策。     

PEAK PERIOD DESIGN STANDARDS FOR SMALL WESTERN U.S. WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: In order to determine design capacities for various components of municipal and rural domestic water supply systems, engineers must estimate water requirements for an entire year (water rights), for the peak season (reservoir storage), for the peak day (pump or treatment plant size), and for peak hour (pipeline sizes). Historically, per capita water use rates have varied greatly between systems, particularly in semiarid regions where outdoor demands are large. The resulting uncertainty in design capacity estimates can cause either inadequate capacities or premature investment. In order to minimize that uncertainty multiple regression and frequency analyses were made of the various water demand parameters mentioned above for 14 systems in Utah and Colorado. Specifically, demand functions are reported for average month, peak month, and peak day. Peak hour demands were also studied but are reported in a different paper. The independent variables which were significant for monthly and daily demands were price of water and an outdoor use index which includes the effect of variation in landscaped area and accounts for use of supplementary ditch or pressure irrigation systems. The demand functions were developed with data from systems varying in size from very small low density rural systems to Salt Lake City's water system. The correlation coefficients (R²) vary from 0.80 to 0.95.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件不完全统计分析

对1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件进行了统计分析,以从总体上揭示这些事件的发生规律及其对城市水源地和供水安全的危害.采用文献检索方法,通过对1985-2005年<中国环境报>、<人民日报>、新华网等报刊和网络的检索,从发生日期、地点、污染物种类、事件简况4个方面统计中国城市水源地突发污染事件,经整理和筛选后共列出102起.这些突发污染事件的分析结果表明:1)中国城市水源地突发污染事件总体上呈数量逐年增多,危害增大的趋势;2)化学品和污水是主要污染物;3)河道交通事故和工厂泄漏事故是主要风险源;4)突发污染事件一般都造成了比较严重的经济社会影响,但缺乏相应的应急管理机制和应急部门;5)3个典型突发污染事件造成重大经济社会损失并引发社会高度关注,凸现了构建中国城市水源地突发污染事件应急机制的重要性和迫切性.     

煤炭开采对粮食安全的影响及其对策

从开采方法、土地复垦与综合治理、经济和政策等方面采取措施,可以最大限度地减小采矿对土地资源的破坏,治理好矿区土地资源,保护好耕地,实现粮食产需总量的大体平衡。“保护粮食安全”关键是抓好耕地保护,根据可持续发展原则,综合考虑矿业经济发展与矿区生态环境保护的关系,走矿业“绿色开采”的道路,研究有利于矿区耕地保护的采矿新技术,使资源开发与耕地保护协调发展,同时还应对煤矸石和粉煤灰进行充分利用、防治水体受到污染、采用先进的土地复垦技术对土地资源的浪费和破坏进行治理,把土地复垦中的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益统一起来,为粮食生产奠定基础。     

建筑应急照明的设计与施工探讨

应急照明是现代建筑安全保障的重要设施之一,它同人身安全和建筑物安全紧密相关。根据建筑电气设计规范对应急照明的具体规定,对应急照明的设计要求做了进一步探讨和归纳总结,并结合具体问题对应急照明设置场所、供电时间、电源供电方式、控制方式、施工设计及设计要点等方面进行了阐述,对应急照明的设计和实践应用中出现的问题进行了分析,并提出了整改措施。     

基于生态系统服务供需的雄安新区生态安全格局构建

生态安全格局构建是保障区域生态安全的关键。沿用“源地识别—阻力面构建—廊道提取”的生态安全格局构建模式，选取粮食供给、产水量、土壤保持、固碳释氧和生境维持5项生态系统服务供给指标，以及人口密度、地均GDP和土地利用程度3项生态系统服务需求指标，综合生态系统服务供需2方面识别重要生态源地，利用夜间灯光强度进行基本阻力面修正，采用最小累积阻力模型进行生态廊道提取，构建出雄安新区生态安全格局。研究表明:新区生态源地总面积约48433 km2，占新区土地总面积的313%，主要分布于新区西北部旱地和东南部水域；新区生态阻力系数空间分布较为破碎，大部分区域阻力值较低，间或分布高阻力值；新区生态廊道总长度18586 km，呈“Y”字型沿建设用地和水系分布，所处地类主要为旱地。基于生态系统服务供需的生态安全格局构建可为新区规划建设提供参考和借鉴。     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性，基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法，提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先，利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数，构建管段的影响系数矩阵，并利用信息熵确定管段权重；其次，标准化处理影响系数矩阵，通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法，对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定；最后，根据工程实例进行方法实践，结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理，地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀，而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响，保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

基于响应曲面法的遗煤自燃分析与研究*

为研究高瓦斯易自燃煤层不同供风量、高抽巷抽采流量、低抽巷抽采流量3因素对采空区自燃“三带”分布影响规律，选取阳煤五矿8406工作面为研究对象，在数值模拟研究基础上，采用Design Expert软件进行Box Behnken试验设计，构建采空区氧化升温带宽度在3因素、3水平条件下的二次回归响应曲面模型，并对不同条件下采空区氧化升温带宽度进行预测与分析。结果表明:二次回归方程P值为0.001 6，预测模型显著，模型的失拟项为0.606 3，不显著，回归方程具有统计学意义；当供风量为1 500~2 000 m3/min，低抽流量为450~650 m3/min，高抽流量为100~200 m3/min时，对氧化升温带宽度一次项重要度排序为C（高抽巷抽采流量）>A（供风量）>B（低抽巷抽采流量），二次项重要度排序为AC（供风量和高抽巷抽采流量）>AB（供风量和低抽巷抽采流量）>BC（低抽巷抽采流量和高抽巷抽采流量），且AB,AC,BC之间均无交互作用。