高架桥道路噪声环评模式应用的研讨

对公路交通噪声预测模式应用于高架桥道路交通噪声地面预测的适用性及桥面作灯适量上地面预测区的噪声屏障衰减作用的计算方法作了探讨，诸如：确认车辆交通的声源高度，起屏蔽作用的桥面有效宽度，辐射噪声的车型与车流量车型的对应等，并提出了量化方法。     

GM（1,1）模型简化算法及其在噪声影响预测中的应用

对ＧＭ（１，１）模型经差分形式化及令定写成直线方程形式。据最小二乘法原理，原方程的参数辨识可借助线性回归方法来实现。从而使ＧＭ（１，１）模型的应用更显普及和实用化。     

A forecast analysis on fertilizers consumption worldwide

This study aimed to make a review and forecast on fertilizers consumption worldwide in order to provide basal data for the decision-making of fertilizers production and for the environmental impact assessment of fertilizers application. It was found that fertilizers consumption was dependent on human population and the increase of fertilizers consumption was mainly resulted from expansion of human population. The univariate linear model, y=a+rx(t), where y is the fertilizers consumption, x(t) is the total human population at year t, r is the annual fertilizers consumption per capita, was used to fit historical data of fertilizers consumption, and the forecasts during 2010 to 2030 were given in detail. Model analysis showed that world’s per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers, were 34.6, 24.4, 6.6, and 3.7 kg, respectively. Per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers for Asia, Africa, Caribbean, Oceania, North & Central America, Europe, and South America were 38.8, 5.9, 6.8, 114.0, 62.9, −0.9, and 43.6 kg, respectively. Compared to the current level, the world’s total fertilizers consumption would reach 226,150,381 Mt by 2030, an increase of 32.1% against current level. Worldwide consumption of nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers would reach 141,800,601, 50,961,129, and 33,388,650 Mt by 2030, increasing 37.5, 25.8, and 21.2% based on current levels. Consumption of total, nitrogenous, phosphate, and potash fertilizers in Asia and Africa would increase 54 to 55% and 40 to 60% by 2030, respectively. Total fertilizers consumption in North & Central America would see an increase of 39.4% by 2030, and in South America and Oceania it would increase by 30.9 and 64.7%, respectively. By 2030, Caribbean’s consumption for total fertilizers would increase 2.8%. Europe’s total fertilizers consumption was forecast to continuously decline and would have a decrease of 2.4% by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for the world, Africa, Asia, and South America were forecast to decrease in the forecast period. For North & Central America, annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and nitrogenous fertilizers would decrease and the others would increase annually by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for Oceania were forecast to rise annually by 2030. Europe’s annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and potash fertilizers would decrease in the future.     

A grassland ecosystem model of the Xilingol steppe, Inner Mongolia, China

The natural grassland ecosystem of the Xilingol steppe has traditionally been the source of the most productive and highest quality agriculture in northern China. Unfortunately, the area is now experiencing degradation due to resource overuse. In an attempt to forecast grassland production and to sustain the ecosystem, we built a time-dependent simulation model of the ecosystem based on long-range weather forecasts (several weeks to several months). The model incorporated five state variables including above- and belowground biomass, the amount of standing dead plant material, livestock (sheep) weight, and the amount of excrement per unit ground area. Within the model, solar light energy is fixed by grassland vegetation and flows through the other variables via a variety of organism-environment interactions. The model was written using a set of simultaneous differential equations and was numerically analyzed. The values of the time-dependent parameters controlling energy flow were determined based on data accumulated in experiments and field surveys executed at a grassland experimental station located in Xilingol, as well as by reference to related literature. We used daily meteorological data including air temperature and rainfall recorded at the Xilinhot Meteorological Observatory. Simulated results for several stocking densities coincided well with the data of aboveground plant biomass observed at the experimental station in 1990, 1993, and 1997. We obtained reasonable simulation results for five stocking densities, three air temperature patterns, and five rainfall patterns. When a month-long drought, which sometimes occurs in this area, was forecast by a local weather station, a decrease in grassland production was forecast by the model. Such forecasts will assist in the management of livestock, forage preservation, and grassland conservation.     

泰来县抗旱灌溉引水工程水土流失预测

采用类比法,结合泰来县抗旱灌溉引水工程的调查进行综合分析,从基本建设期水土流失量,林草恢复期水土流失量方面进行预测,得出该工程水土流失预测总量49835t,新增水土流失量25458t的结论。     

南城子水库面源污染预测及控制

通过对南城子水库面源污染的调查和对监测结果的分析,预测了全流域面源污染入库量及对水库水质的污染程度,并提出了面源污染的控制方案。     

廊坊市大气环境质量与环境容量研究

根据廊坊市2003～2008年空气监测数据,采用灰色模型GM(1,1)对该市大气环境质量主导因子PM10、SO2和NO2进行模拟预测,采用宏观总量控制A值法对理想大气容量进行计算分析,最终建议在工业污染源、生活污染源、交通污染源和建筑扬尘污染源4个方面采取必要措施保护廊坊市的大气环境。     

OPAQ系统两种模式对O 3预报准确率的探讨

以江苏省宿迁环境监测中心OPAQ系统为例,基于人工神经网络算法的OPAQ空气质量预报系统的2种模式对O 3预报准确率的进行了分析,结果表明,趋势最优模式(RMSE模式)对预报当天及未来3 d的预报值与监测值的相关性系数均>0.78,相对误差在25%以下,在预测当天及未来24、48及72 h优-良天的预测准确率较高,分别为88.8%、87.2%、86.3%及84.7%,在预测轻度污染-重度污染的准确率较低;极值最优模式(SI模式)对预报当天及未来3 d的预报值与监测值的相关性系数(R)均>0.76,相对误差<32%,预测未来24和48 h的轻度污染-中度污染的级别准确率>60%。OPAQ系统的极值最优模式(SI模式)更适合作为夏季ρ(O 3)较高时的预测工具。     

洞庭湖区洪涝灾害的预报模式

本文根据1952～1988年长江中上游地区的水文气象资料,对洞庭湖区洪涝灾害的特点进行了分析,在此基础上建立了预报模式.     

城市自来水中途生物性污染危险程度的预测研究

为了准确而又快速地预报自来水中途生物性污染的危险程度,防止介水传染病发生,本文对生活污水样品进行了大量的实验研究,同时收集和分析了国内历次污染事件资料。经大显筛选实验发现,水中氨氮是代表大肠菌群进行预测预报污染程度的最佳化学指标。发生污染事件的危险性可分为四级,相应的大肠菌群故分别为１００－、２００－、１０００－、１００００－。