基于模糊颜色Petri网的表决DVP安全软件模型初探

把模糊计算理论和有色Petri网有机地结合起来 ,提出了一种模糊颜色Petri网诊断表决算法 ,把该算法应用于DVP的软件模型 ,使之具有故障容忍和表决的能力。笔者对以模糊颜色Petri网为核心的DVP软件模型表决算法进行了较为深入的探讨 ,该模型对提高软件系统的安全性和可靠性具有实际意义。     

A method for evaluating areas for national park status

A procedure for evaluating different areas as national parks based on a scoring system is proposed. A National Park Evaluation Form (NPEF) evaluating natural, cultural, and recreational resources in accordance with international criteria for national parks is presented. The evaluation points given to an area indicate the possibility of the area becoming a national park. In this method, subjectivity and bias have been minimized by a special application of the Delphi technique. The method outlined here could help in the efforts of selecting and establishing national parks in many countries.     

安全等级特征量及其计算方法

指出了目前用模糊评价法确定系统的安全等级所存在的问题和不足之处。分别运用模糊随机变量理论和模糊集理论而提出了安全等级模糊随机特征量和安全等级模糊特征量的概念及其计算方法。安全等级特征量及安全等级变量,均为安全等级取值论域上的模糊子集,而并非是一个确定的点。还给出了安全等级的绝对可能性和相对可能性的计算方法。实例表明,笔者所提出的安全等级特征量及可能性的计算方法是科学的、合理的     

小城镇灾害易损性分析与评估

随着我国城镇化进程的加快 ,小城镇的防灾减灾问题逐步引起社会的关注 ,而小城镇易损度分析和评价是灾害危险性评价的重要组成部分 ,也是小城镇决策部门制定防灾减灾规划的重要依据 ;笔者在综合分析了小城镇的自然易损性、经济易损性及社会易损性的基础上 ,选取相应的灾害指标和社会经济指标 ,应用多级模糊综合评判方法 ,对小城镇的易损程度作出了评估 ,从而为小城镇制定相应防灾、减灾对策提供科学依据。     

A participatory approach to ecosystem conservation: fuzzy cognitive maps and stakeholder group analysis in Uluabat Lake,Turkey

Fuzzy cognitive mapping was used to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan for Uluabat Lake, Turkey. Interviews were conducted with stakeholders belonging to six different groups. Lake pollution was the most central and most mentioned variable for stakeholders. Stakeholder groups agree that lake pollution is negatively affecting ecosystem health and thereby local economies. Thus, reducing lake pollution was chosen as the overall goal for the management plan. Possible ways to reduce lake pollution and increase ecosystem health were seen differently by the different groups. Hunters, factory managers, NGO personnel, and local people thought industry was the main cause of lake pollution, while officials from the government and local municipalities thought roads and urban development contributed the most to lake pollution. Generally the stakeholder groups did not perceive their own actions as affecting the lake as strongly as other groups thought. For example, factory managers viewed factory pollution as negatively affecting the lake but less strongly than the other groups did. According to policy option simulations, reducing lake pollution had positive effects on all variables, especially fish, birds, animal husbandry, irrigation, agriculture, and the ecological balance of the lake. Results of this analysis were used to facilitate meetings among stakeholder groups and to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan. The analysis was useful for pointing out the similarities as well as the differences among the groups. It also helped the facilitators understand the focus of each stakeholder group and enabled them to suggest activities in which each group would want to participate.     

Application of Multiattribute Decision-Making Methods for the Determination of Relative Significance Factor of Impact Categories

A relative significance factor (f _i ) of an impact category is the external weight of the impact category. The objective of this study is to propose a systematic and easy-to-use method for the determination of f _i . Multiattribute decision-making (MADM) methods including the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the rank-order centroid method, and the fuzzy method were evaluated for this purpose. The results and practical aspects of using the three methods are compared. Each method shows the same trend, with minor differences in the value of f _i . Thus, all three methods can be applied to the determination of f _i . The rank order centroid method reduces the number of pairwise comparisons by placing the alternatives in order, although it has inherent weakness over the fuzzy method in expressing the degree of vagueness associated with assigning weights to criteria and alternatives. The rank order centroid method is considered a practical method for the determination of f _i because it is easier and simpler to use compared to the AHP and the fuzzy method.     

Fuzzy multiple-criteria decision-making approach for industrial green engineering

This paper describes a fuzzy hierarchical analytic approach to determine the weighting of subjective judgments. In addition, it presents a nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate a green engineering industry case as a fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (FMCDM) problem. When the investment strategies are evaluated from various aspects, such as economic effectiveness, technical feasibility, and environmental regulation, it can be regarded as an FMCDM problem. Since stakeholders cannot clearly estimate each considered criterion in terms of numerical values for the anticipated alternatives/strategies, fuzziness is considered to be applicable. Consequently, this paper uses triangular fuzzy numbers to establish weights and anticipated achievement values. By ranking fuzzy weights and fuzzy synthetic utility values, we can determine the relative importance of criteria and decide the best strategies. This paper applies what is called a λ fuzzy measure and nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate the synthetic performance of green engineering strategies for aquatic products processors in Taiwan. In addition, we demonstrate that the nonadditive fuzzy integral is an effective evaluation and appears to be appropriate, especially when the criteria are not independent.     

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

多级模糊决策在地震预报中的应用

本文把多级模糊决策方法应用于地震预报当中。文中详细论证和推导了多级模糊决策方法与模型。该方法使决策部门可以根据输入前兆的变化随时作出合理的对策。文中还给出了地震预报多级模糊决策数字解实例,并用回顾法讨论了1976年松潘7.2级地震的模糊预报决策。