因地制宜建设好彭州市国家级生态示范区

生态示范区建设是实施可持续发展战略的基本经济社会形式。本文简单介绍了彭州市的概况，根据建设的指导思想、建设目标，对彭州市进行生态经济分区，并确定了分区规划目标，相应的提出了重点建设领域，为当地开展生态示范区建设工作提供了理论参考。     

自然灾害发生时间序列的分形特征及R/S分析

统计了公元960年到1979年我国地震、洪涝和台风风暴潮灾害发生的时间及死亡人数,以分形几何中的Cantor集合为模型,发现我国自然灾害发生时间序列的分布呈现出明显的分形特征,并采用Smalley方法分别计算了不同灾害发生时间序列分布的分维值,它们均在0.5左右,同严格意义上的数学分形Cantor集合相比分维较小,说明我国地震等自然灾害发生发展的自组织程度还有进一步发展的趋势,其危害程度将可能进一步提高;在自然灾害发生时间序列的分形特征的基础上,通过R/S分析,得出3种自然灾害发生时间序列的H指数均在0.28左右,同日斑指数、树木年轮、湖泊水位变化等自然现象相比较小,说明自然灾害的发生具有短程相关性,其发生规律没有日斑指数等自然现象明显.该研究对于进一步认识和研究我国地震等自然灾害的发生规律和发展趋势等具有一定意义.     

混沌理论在事故分析及预测中的应用

在对江苏常州市某公司安全事故资料进行大量调查与统计的基础上,应用混沌理论分析了该公司安全事故的混沌特征,指出了事故对初始条件的敏感依赖性和事故的长期不可预测性。应用重构相空间理论对安全事故次数的时间序列进行了分析和预测。同时,还对安全事故统计资料进行了R/S分析,得出该时间序列以2 0 0 1年6月为界限,存在两个Hurst指数,H1=1.6 82 8和H2 =0 .2 936 ,表明在以3个月为时间统计尺度的条件下,事故发生次数在前一时间段整体表现为持久相关性,而在后一时间段表现为反持久相关性。预测与分析结果与实际情况符合较好,表明应用混沌理论进行事故分析与预测是可行的,反映了事故的发展趋势。     

Access数据库加密系统安全性剖析及改进策略

MSAccess是国内中小型企业的MIS广泛采用的数据库系统,它开发和维护都很方便,而且数据处理功能强大,是目前应用最为广泛地中小型数据库系统。但是由于其在加密方面设计欠周密,造成用户可以通过日期字段等方式对隐藏的密钥进行还原,使之成为该种数据库系统首要安全问题。笔者对其加密系统的漏洞和各种获取Access数据库密码的方式进行分析,提出一种通用的动态密钥空间加密技术改进和保护同类问题数据库系统。该技术具有密码保护的通用性和确保加密信息安全的特殊性;必定能为目前广大的MSAccess用户现存的数据安全问题的解决提供良好的思路和实施方法。同时它也给具有类似安全漏洞的大型数据库的加密体系的设计提供一个极好的新策略。     

The Appropriateness of Snowmobiling in National Parks: An Investigation of the Meanings of Snowmobiling Experiences in Yellowstone National Park

The debate over snowmobiling and other types of motorized recreation in US national parks signals the need for a better understanding of the meanings of these experiences. The fundamental issue facing many parks is whether snowmobiling is an appropriate activity. The matter of appropriateness is anchored in two questions: (1) Does snowmobiling in national parks cause unacceptable biophysical and social impacts? (2) Are snowmobiling experiences consistent with the fundamental purposes of national parks? This article particularly addresses the appropriateness issue and presents the findings of an interpretive study of the meanings of snowmobiling experiences in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Sixty-five semistructured interviews were conducted with winter visitors who used snowmobiles in the park during the winter season of 1999. Overall, the study findings reveal that visitors on snowmobiles view YNP as a place to experience its wildland attributes, such as natural scenery, geothermal features, and, especially, wildlife. Snowmobiling is perceived as a mode of transportation rather than the experience in and of itself. The results challenge the popular image of snowmobiles as thrill-craft and snowmobilers as thrill-seekers. The study demonstrates that snowmobiling in YNP affords highly meaningful recreational experiences, grounded in appreciating the park’s unique natural features and attributes.     

FORPLAN: A FORest Planning LANguage and Simulator

A Forest Planning Language and Simulator (FORPLAN) has been developed to facilitate the use of simulation for integrating fire into the land management planning process.FORPLAN incorporates unique characteristics of previous systems, links numerous models and data bases, allows selection of variable resolution levels, and permits discrete time simulation of disturbances on plants, fuels, and animals. No previous computer experience is required of the user, sinceFORPLAN recognizes simple English words and phrases.     

Effects of recreational use on forested sites

Impact of recreational activities on soil and vegetation was evaluated in eight forested camping and picnic areas in southern Rhode Island. Forest vegetation consists of mixed-oak and white pine stands. Soils are of granitic glacial till or outwash origin and textures range from loamy sand to find sandy loam. Recreational use resulted in significant compaction of soils as indexed by soil penetration resistance and bulk density. Evidence indicates that compaction influences bulk densities to a depth of about 12.7 cm. Rates of water infiltration are less on recreation areas. Soil water accretion and depletion during the growing season are less rapid on recreation sites than on control sites. Differences are attributed to reduced infiltration, percolation, and rooting activity. Much of the ground surface on recreation areas is devoid of vegetation. The surface consists primarily of bare mineral soil, rock, or litter. The plants most commonly present are grasses. Native ground cover vegetation including tree seedlings, ericaceous shrubs and herbs has been eliminated or greatly reduced by trampling. Damage to tree trunks is common in recreation areas. White pine radial growth and scarlet oak height growth were significantly less on recreation sites. Scarlet oak appears intolerant to heavy recreation use.     

DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND/WATER RESOURCES: THE EVERGLADES,AGRICULTURE, AND SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: South Florida and the Everglades have been under intensive development since 1850 by Federal and State governments who encouraged and financed extensive drainage and hydraulic changes, primarily for agricultural settlement. Agricultural development of the sugar industry in the northern Everglades adjacent to Lake Okeechobee rapidly progressed only after the 1900s. Political and resource management conflicts have arisen because policies which once favored development are now being reversed by policies and regulation efforts to restore and conserve natural ecosystems. Currently, the environmental and ecological impacts of agricultural land use adjacent to natural wtlands of the Everglades are being assessed. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to outline the historical development of south Florida and the sugar industry, (2) to relate this history to political and management policy changes occurring as it pertains to ecosystem restoration and the multiuser competition for water/land resources, and (3) to propose how integrated resource management might be utilized for a sustainable Everglades and south Florida. This paper outlines the historical paradox of urban settlement, land development, and agricultural production, with efforts in the recent decade to acquire, manage, and preserve land and water resources for natural areas conservation. Only though the use of integrated resource management will the defined resource conflicts be mediated.     

Sampling Schemes for Policy Analyses Using Computer Simulation Experiments

/ Evaluating the environmental and economic impacts of agricultural policies is not a simple task. A systematic approach to evaluation would include the effect of policy-dependent factors (such as tillage practices, crop rotations, and chemical use) as well as the effect of policy-independent covariates (such as weather, topography, and soil attributes) on response variables (such as amount of soil eroded or chemical leached into the groundwater). For comparison purposes, the effects of these input combinations on the response variable would have to be assessed under competing policy scenarios. Because the number of input combinations is high in most problems, and because policies to be evaluated are often not in use at the time of the study, practitioners have resorted to simulation experiments to generate data. However, generating data from simulation models is often costly and time consuming; thus, the number of input combinations in a study may be limiting even in simulation experiments. In this paper, we discuss the problem of designing computer simulation experiments that require generating data for just a fraction of the possible input combinations. We propose an approach that is based on subsampling the 1992 National Resources Inventory (NRI) points. We illustrate the procedure by assessing soil erosion in a situation where there are "observed" data [reported by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)] for comparison. Estimates for soil erosion obtained using the procedure we propose are in good agreement with NRCS reported values.KEY WORDS: Metamodel; National Resources Inventory; Nonpoint source pollution     

A long-term survey on anthropogenic impacts to the water quality of coral reefs, southern Taiwan

Before 2001, the ecological protection area in the Kenting National Park (KTNP), southern Taiwan, was poorly described. In this study, a set of four-year data (2001-2004) of seawater qualities at 19 sampling sites around the Nanwan Bay in the KTNP was used to explore anthropogenic impacts to ecological environment, especially coral reefs. The parameters of water quality were analyzed immediately after collection. The results showed that higher values of nutrients and suspended solids were attributed to the higher run-off around Nanwan Bay. The fluxes of nutrients and suspended solids were consistently correlated to rainfall. Hence, equations were developed to calculate nutrient fluxes and suspended solids by using only rainfall data. Our results show that suspended solids and ammonia were the dominant factors leading to the drop in coral coverage. In summary, the water quality in the intertidal zone of Nanwan Bay has been degraded and required greater attention.