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51.
Forecasting the behaviour of a flammable or toxic cloud is a critical challenge in quantitative risk analysis. Recent literature shows that empirical and integral models are unable to model complex dispersion scenarios, like those occurring in semi-confined spaces or with the presence of physical barriers. Although CFD simulators are promising tools in this regard, they still need to be fully validated with comprehensive datasets coming from experimental campaigns designed ad-hoc. In this paper, we present an experimental campaign carried out by a joint venture between University of São Paulo and Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya to investigate CFD tools performance when used to analyse clouds dispersion. The experiments consisted on propane cloud dispersion field tests (unobstructed and with the presence of a fence obstructing the flow) of releases up to 0.5 kg s−1 of 40 s of duration in a discharge area of 700 m2. We provide a full 1-s averaged propane concentration evolution dataset of two experiments, extracted from 29 points located at different positions within the cloud, with which we have tested FLACS® CFD-software performance. FLACS reproduces successfully the presence of complex geometry, showing realistic concentration decreases due to cloud dispersion obstruction by the existence of a fence. However, simulated clouds have not represented the whole complex accumulation dynamics due to wind variation. 相似文献
52.
What do significance tests really tell us about the environment? 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?” 相似文献
53.
O. Thas L. Van Vooren J. P. Ottoy 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1998,34(2):347-357
ABSTRACT: In this paper four nonparametric tests for monotonic trend detection are compared with respect to their power and accuracy. The importance of comparing powers at equal empirical significance levels rather than nominal levels is stressed. Therefore, an appropriate graphical method is presented. The effect of the sampling frequency is also assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and a trajectory representation that visualizes the dynamics of the trade-off between the type I and type II errors. These methods are applied to compare four nonparametrical tests (seasonal Mann. Kendall, modified seasonal Mann-Kendall, covariance eigenvalue and covariance inversion) under several conditions. It is concluded with respect to the power that it is not worthwhile for the modified seasonal Mann-Kendall test applied to the AR(1) process considered in this paper to increase the sampling frequency from monthly to biweekly for detecting a monotonic trend of 5 percent, 10 percent, or 15 percent of the process variance. Under these conditions the seasonal Mann-Kendall test is highly liberal, while the covariance inversion and the covariance eigenvalue test are conservative. This research is situated in the development of an efficient sampling design for the Flemish water quality monitoring network. 相似文献
54.
55.
Charles H. Taylor Jim C. Loftis 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1989,25(4):715-726
ABSTRACT: The detection of gradual trends in water quality time series is increasing in importance as concern grows for diffuse sources of pollution such as acid precipitation and agricultural non-point sources. A significant body of literature has arisen dealing with trend detection in water quality variables that exhibit seasonal patterns. Much of the literature has dealt with seasonality of the first moment. However, little has been mentioned about seasonality in the variance, and its effect upon the performance of trend detection techniques. In this paper, eight methods of trend detection that arise from both the statistical literature as well as the water quality literature have been compared by means of a simulation study. Varying degrees of seasonality in both the variances and the means have been introduced into the artificial data, and the performances of these procedures are analyzed. Since the focus is on lake and ground water quality monitoring, quarterly sampling and short to moderate record lengths are examined. 相似文献
56.
A specific leachate that contained 1.036 mg l(-1) of 2-chlorobiphenyl was used in the study (255 mg l(-1) COD and 133 mg l(-1) BOD5). Bench scale (20 l) air stripping trials were used to simulate on a small-scale the treatment potential of this method. Air stripping effectively reduced the leachates COD concentration. Regardless of the volume of air supplied (1-5 l of air per minute) the leachates COD reached a <50 mg l(-1) equilibrium after 96-h exposure, however, increasing the volume of air accelerated the process. In untreated leachate, the LC50 for Asellus aquaticus was 57% v/v leachate in deionised water and 5% for Gammarus pulex (96-h, static LC50 tests without nutrition and oxygen depleting conditions). After being exposed to air stripping, these values rose from 90% to below the LC50 threshold for Asellus when 1-5 l of air per minute were applied and 30-90% for Gammarus. Furthermore, in sub-lethal concentrations of air stripped leachate (leachate that had been exposed to 5-l of air per minute for 96-h) the population dynamics of both test species remained unaltered. 相似文献
57.
不同自然暴露方法对聚丙烯老化的影响 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
采用直接大气暴露、玻璃板下暴露和百页窗下暴露3种自然暴露方法,研究了聚丙烯塑料外观、力学性能和熔融指数在海南自然暴露过程中的变化,考察了光、热、氧对聚丙烯老化的影响。结果表明:自然环境下,光和热均是引起聚丙烯老化降解的主要因素.并且光的作用更强.氧对聚丙烯老化的影响很小:冲击强度对聚丙烯的老化相当敏感.海南自然暴露9个月时.直接大气暴露的聚丙烯试样冲击强度保持率下降至原始的10%左右。 相似文献
58.
59.
The case described in this article regards 4.7 km of beach in Ferring, situated approx. 5 km south to the mouth of the Limfjord
strait on the west coast of Denmark. In 2005, this section of the beach was nourished with 721,000 m3 of material in order to protect backshore properties, natural heritages and the recreational value of the beach. After the
nourishment, the beach was monitored by levelling profiles on four dates to monitor and track the evolution of the nourished
material. Furthermore, laboratory tests involving different gradations of nourishment material are shown which indicate solutions
to different kinds of coastal protection strategies, estimate the time in between two nourishments and evaluate the cost of
maintaining a beach with a high recreational value for the public. 相似文献
60.