区域一体化的空间涌现逻辑及其范式探新——兼论长三角一体化的复杂性空间治理

复杂空间的涌现为区域一体化空间研究及国家战略实施提供了重要理论视角。运用文献调研、逻辑推导、归纳总结等方法探究了区域一体化空间演化的涌现逻辑及其研究范式,探讨了长三角一体化的复杂性空间治理。研究表明：（1）区域一体化具有异质性组分、适应性交互、多尺度嵌套、非线性动态、自组织演化等空间复杂性特征及空间涌现本质;（2）基于空间涌现的区域一体化空间研究范式拓展包括强化空间涌现思维,建立水平—垂直—历时的分析框架,以结构—过程耦合路径揭示空间涌现动态,注重多元数据和方法手段的集成;（3）应以复杂性治理及协同性治理、试探性治理为思路,从治理主体、对象、构型、工具、效能等方面探索长三角一体化的复杂性空间治理策略。     

Quantitative risk assessment: How realistic are those frequency assumptions?

Although much has changed in recent decades in how the consequences are treated in risk assessment of major industrial accidents, estimation of frequencies still appears to be largely based on values from several decades ago. This paper reviews briefly some of the implications of this, drawing on lessons not only from the process industries but also from other not so obviously relevant fields such as aerospace and finance, where the significance of such factors such as organizational culture, normalization of deviance, ownership, demographic change, etc. is becoming increasingly recognized in the analysis and hence the control of risk.Failure to consider such factors and their effects can pose a problem, because risk assessment is not simply an abstract concept but can have a real influence on the level of risk. If protective measures such as the safety culture of the site, etc. can be shown to significantly change the risk zone, this can persuade the risk generator to improve those factors or take other steps to reduce the risk such as reducing the inventory in the process. Conversely, assessments conducted for well-run companies may misrepresent the risk if the site ownership changes to a financial holding company with a focus on maximizing short-term profit and resale of the assets, and it can be difficult even for well-motivated management to justify protective measures if they produce no apparent difference in the risk.This paper introduces these and other issues for consideration in the symposium which follows.     

Extension of TACOM to the complexity of tasks designed for abnormal situations in nuclear power plants

TACOM (TAsk COMplexity) is a measure for evaluating the complexity of tasks prescribed for emergency situations in nuclear power plants. Five sub-measures constituting TACOM represent five different aspects of the task complexity exhibited in operating procedures for emergency situations. The practicality of TACOM has been verified through a series of empirical studies. However, tasks designed for abnormal situations that can significantly affect the safety of nuclear power plants, also need a proper measure for evaluating their complexity. TACOM provides a process, a systematic cognitive task analysis method and a set of guidelines to support its application. Therefore, although the characteristics of abnormal task situations are not the same as those of emergency situations, TACOM seems to be reasonably applied to abnormal situations or at least to offer meaningful insights for developing a measure for evaluating the complexity of tasks in abnormal situations. Thus this study examined the applicability of TACOM to abnormal situations through case studies. Particular attention was paid to the sufficiency and appropriateness of the three methodological tools, which are the process, the cognitive task analysis method and the set of guidelines. Collective consideration of the case studies and the characteristics of tasks prescribed for abnormal situations led us to draw the conclusion that TACOM could be reliably used for abnormal situations as well. This paper reports the process of how to apply TACOM to the tasks of abnormal situations and discusses some lessons learned through this application.     

五边到场交通态势安全评估研究

为提高五边到场交通运行的安全性,基于客观、合理的评估五边到场交通态势的重要性,探讨空中交通复杂性在五边到场交通态势评估中的应用,并利用基于五边到场交通的复杂性图示方法,画出五边到场交通复杂性图,通过对复杂性图的分析来描述当前五边到场交通态势的安全特征,包括航空器与航空器之间发生冲突的可能性以及到场航空器允许插入五边的时间和位置等。结果表明:五边到场交通复杂性图能客观、准确地评估五边到场交通中航空器与航空器之间潜在的冲突大小,通过五边到场交通复杂性来对五边到场交通态势进行安全性评估是可行的。     

A Systems Based Framework to Examine The Multi-contextural Application of the Sustainability Concept

A conceptual framework is generated through systems principles to explain sustainability’s wide diversity of interpretation and contextual application. Sustainability is reduced to a literal interpretation as the ability to sustain, and then expressed in simple systems as the ability of one system to sustain another system over time. This reinforces the importance of time in the sustainability debate, and suggests the concept can be legitimately applied to timeframes that have absolute limits. The framework is expanded to complex systems as the changing ability of one or many systems to sustain the changing requirements of one or many systems, over time. This accommodates multiple relations and system dynamics, and hints at the extraordinary complexity encompassed by the sustainability concept. Practical implications relate to the evolving meaning of sustainability, the need for continual change to remain sustainable, and that the sustainability concept can be validly applied to virtually any context or situation that exhibits a dimension of continuity. Derived criteria useful for clarifying contextual applications of sustainability include stating the how, what, why, who and for how long of sustainability, along with indicating the most appropriate hierarchical tier at which the concept is being applied.     

Perceived stress,mental health,organizational factors,and self-reported risky driving behaviors among truck drivers circulating in France

Introduction: The growth of the European market for road-freight transport has recently led to important changes. The growing number of foreign pavilion drivers transiting in France, which plays a bridging role among European countries, has influenced the lives of truck drivers by increasing competition, pressure on day-to-day activities, and constraints related to delivery deadlines. Adding this new pressure to those inherent in the road-freight transport sector has raised concerns, especially ones linked to levels of perceived stress by truck drivers. Method: With safety concerns in mind, we devised a questionnaire aimed at understanding how French truck drivers and non-French truck drivers, passing through four highway rest areas in France perceive stress, organizational factors, mental health, and risky driving behaviors. A sample of 515 truck drivers took part in the survey (260 French nationals), 97.9% of whom were male. Results: The results of a structural equation model indicated that perceived stress can increase self-reported risky driving behaviors among truck drivers. Furthermore, organizational factors and mental health were closely linked to perceived stress. Finally, some differences were found between French and non-French truck drivers with respect to mind-wandering and mental health, and to perceive driving difficulties to overcome and driving skills. Practical Applications: Several recommendations based on the findings are provided to policymakers and organizations.     

Set-aside management: How do succession, sowing patterns and landscape context affect biodiversity?

European Union (EU) member states set aside between 5 and 15% of arable land during the last two decades, but abolition of the set-aside scheme in 2008 caused a sudden loss in habitat availability and biodiversity in agricultural landscapes. Management of set-aside has many facets and in this perspective paper we focus on the biodiversity effects of successional age, sowing strategies and landscape context. Young, 1-2-year-old set-asides have been initially considered to be too ephemeral to have any conservation value. However, when a rich seed and bud bank is available, a species-rich natural (secondary) succession can be observed. Arable (annual) weed communities in the first two years of succession can even include endangered plant species with associated rare insect consumers. Furthermore, many bird species benefit from early-successional habitats, whereas small mammal communities are richer in older habitats. If the local plant species pool is poor, sowings of diverse mixtures from regional seed collections can be recommended. Set-aside managers using species-rich sowings often experience that dominant weeds suppress the less competitive annual species. This trend to species-poor communities can be avoided by intraspecific aggregation of competitively weak species. Broadening the spatial scale from the plot to the landscape, efficiency of set-aside is highest in simple landscapes, where set-aside exhibits greatest effect in enhancement of biodiversity and associated services such as pollination and biological control. In complex landscapes, however, additional set-aside does not add much to the high level of biodiversity and ecological processes already present. Twenty percent of semi-natural, non-crop habitat appears to be a rough threshold for enhancing biodiversity and sustaining services such as pollination and biological control, but improved set-aside management should have the potential to reduce the percentage of semi-natural non-crop habitat needed. EU policy should tailor set-aside schemes for the maintenance of biodiversity and also consider that management efficiency is higher in simple than complex landscapes.     

Analysis of institutional adaptation: integration of biodiversity conservation into forestry

Integrating biodiversity conservation into forest management requires changes in the practices of those public and private actors that have implementing responsibilities and whose strategic and operational opportunities are at stake. Understanding this kind of context-dependent institutional adaptation entails bridging between two analytical approaches: policy implementation and organizational adaptation. This article combines these two approaches by reviewing them, and their caveats, and by summarizing empirical analyses of organizational competences, specialization, professional judgment, and organizational networks in the organizational field of non-industrial private forestry in Finland. Drawing on these theoretical and empirical analyses, the article discloses the broad phenomenon of institutional adaptation in the integration of biodiversity conservation and forest management. The empirical analyses point to the dominance of hierarchical policy implementation over strategic organizational adaptation. Together with the detected isomorphism of professional norms and networks, these contribute to meeting minimum standards but can constrain the ways in which the organizations and professionals respond to the challenge of biodiversity conservation. The detected inertia signals lack of alertness. It is perhaps also an indication of self-sufficiency among the actors. The interpretation of these responses to challenges and responsibilities across the public and private sector boundaries demonstrates the necessity of combining the two traditionally segregated approaches.     

The Structuration of Public Participation: Organizing Environmental Control

A growing body of participation literature muses over why current mechanisms of public participation persist when they so often fail; calls for expanding the conceptual boundaries of participation beyond institutional mechanisms, and highlights the role communication, and allied concepts such as discourse and rhetoric, play in participatory processes. Given these diverse calls, environmental public participation can benefit from building a mid-level theoretical terrain. In this essay, I draw upon the sociological tradition of Anthony Giddens’ structuration theory and parallel systems thinking which foreground a structure-action mode of analysis. Through this lens I articulate the basic premises of a structuration model for environmental public participation, pointing especially to issues of agency, which involves ontological security and ontological competence, social systems, and various elements within duality of structure, with an eye toward communication-centered research. This theoretical space further indicates the possibilities of connecting the material realm of action/practice with the symbolic domain of environmental self.     

GRNN模型在煤与瓦斯突出及瓦斯含量预测中的应用

煤与瓦斯突出的作用机理非常复杂,是诸多因素如地应力、煤层瓦斯、煤体物理力学性质等共同作用的结果。在分析广义回归神经网络(GRNN)的基本原理和算法的基础上,建立煤与瓦斯突出等级以及基于构造复杂程度定量评价的瓦斯含量GRNN模型。然后用收集到的工程实例样本训练和检验该模型。结果表明,GRNN模型具有很好的预测能力和泛化能力,能较好揭示瓦斯含量和诸影响因素间的关系,可用于煤与瓦斯突出判别以及瓦斯含量预测。同时可以看出,光滑因子的合理选取对于提高GRNN模型的预测精度非常重要,因此,在以后的实际应用中需要不断尝试,找出最合理的光滑因子。