中国的地震灾害损失预测

估计某个地区未来将会遭到多大的地震灾害损失.对于减轻地震灾害是十分重要的科学问题.因力地震预防和救灾的基础是对未来地震灾害的定量估计.地震灾害主要由两方面因素决定.一方面是未来地震动强烈程度的估计(地震危险性分析).另一方面是各个地震动等级对社会、经济、人口等所造成的损害程度估计(地震易损性分析). 本文介绍了以上两方面研究工作的进展,以及国家地震局“未来地震灾害损失预测研究组”试编的中国未来50年地震灾害损失预测图及其应用.讨论了在灾害预测方面所遇到的科学问题.     

A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosion scenarios are determined, together with their frequency of occurrence. These include scenarios in which one module participates, as well as domino scenarios. The frequency is partly based on casuistry.

A typical burning velocity is determined depending on the ignition type, the dust properties and the local conditions for flame acceleration. The resulting pressure development is predicted with the ‘thin flame model’. Module failure occurs when the explosion load exceeds thresholds, which are derived from single degree of freedom (SDOF) calculations for various types of modules. A model has been developed to predict the process of pressure venting after module failure and the related motion of launched module parts.

The blast effects of the primary explosion are based on results from calculations with BLAST3D. The blast and flame effects of the secondary external explosion due to venting are calculated using existing models. The throw of fragments and debris is quantified with a recently developed model. This model is based on trajectory calculations and gives the impact densities, velocities, and angles as output. Furthermore the outflow of bulk material is taken into account. The consequences for external objects and human beings are calculated using existing models. Finally the risk contours and the Societal risk (FN curve) are calculated, which can be compared to regulations.     

Improving PHA/LOPA by consistent consequence severity estimation

Most risk analysis methods rely on a qualitative judgment of consequence severity, regardless of the analysis rigor applied to the estimation of hazardous event frequency. Since the risk analysis is dependent on the estimated frequency and consequence severity of the hazardous event, the error associated with the consequence severity estimate directly impacts the estimated risk and ultimately the risk reduction requirements. Overstatement of the consequence severity creates excessive risk reduction requirements. Understatement results in inadequate risk reduction.Consistency in the consequence severity estimate can be substantially improved by implementing consequence estimation tools that assist PHA/LOPA team members in understanding the flammability, explosivity, or toxicity of process chemical releases. This paper provides justification for developing semi-quantitative look-up tables to support the team assessment of consequence severity. Just as the frequency and risk reduction tables have greatly improved consistency in the estimate of the hazardous event frequency, consequence severity tables can significantly increase confidence in the severity estimate.     

基于多模态信息融合的心理负荷评估*

为了相对稳定地识别人员是否处于心理负荷状态,设计并实施含能材料起爆作业心理负荷诱导试验。首先对心理负荷诱导情况进行判断,然后分别采集27名被试在静息状态和实施含能材料撞击起爆作业状态下的眼动、心率变异性（HRV）和脑电信号（EEG）,通过正态性检验和假设检验获得心理负荷表征指标并进行统计功效分析,依据表征指标,采用支持向量机（SVM）和随机森林（RF）算法建立多模态信息融合的心理负荷评估模型,最后采用被试工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）分析各模态组合和分类器的心理负荷识别性能。研究结果表明:双模态（眼动+EEG）下SVM算法和3模态下RF算法评估性能和稳健性较高,多模态信息组合具有优异的识别效果。     

Comparative assessment of primary and secondary infection risks in a norovirus outbreak using a household model simulation

Diarrheal diseases can be transmitted via both primary infection due to exposures to contaminated materials from the environment and secondary infection due to personto-person contacts. Usually, the importance of secondary infection is empirically assessed by fitting mathematical models to the epidemic curves. However, these empirical models may not be applicable to other epidemic cases because they are developed only for the target epidemics and they don't consider the detail routes of infection. In our previous study, we developed a theoretical model taking into account the various routes of infection that commonly occur in households(e.g., shaking hands, food handling, and changing diapers).This model was made flexible and applicable to any epidemics by means of adjusting model parameters. In this study, we proposed a new index "Vulnerability indicator to secondary infection(VISI)", which expressed a ratio of secondary infection to primary infection risks and calculated this index in a simulated norovirus(No V) epidemic that involved 10,000 households.The results demonstrated that households composed of more than three members including infant(s) had much higher levels of VISI(5–45) than two-member-households with VISI(0.1–4).These results concluded that the infants were likely to be a hub of secondary infections in highly dense families and therefore careful handling of diapers was deemed indispensible in such families to effectively control the secondary infections.