基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

某炼油厂冷却循环水系统故障与危害性分析

根据采集的某炼油厂一年的冷却循环水系统的故障数据,采用故障模式影响及危害性分析方法对该系统的可靠性进行了分析.由该系统结构特点,划分了水冷塔、换热器、水冷塔风机、水泵、水管、阀门等7个子系统及19种故障模式,统计了各子系统的故障率,分析了系统的故障模式及其故障原因,计算了各子系统的危害度.结果表明水泵及水冷塔风机的危害度最高,换热器的危害度排第三,但其故障率排第四,说明在做故障分析时不能只统计故障率而不进行危害度分析.最后提出了相应的改进措施,经过一年的实际运行,效果明显.     

Recovery of Ni(II) from real electroplating wastewater using fixed-bed resin adsorption and subsequent electrodeposition

Resin adsorption and subsequent electrodeposition were used for nickel recovery. Treated wastewater can meet the Electroplating Pollutant Discharge Standard. The spent resin is completely regenerated by 3 BV of 4% HCl solution. 95.6% of nickel in concentrated eluent was recovered by electrodeposition. Effective recovery of high-value heavy metals from electroplating wastewater is of great significance, but recovering nickel ions from real electroplating wastewater as nickel sheet has not been reported. In this study, the pilot-scale fixed-bed resin adsorption was conducted to recover Ni(II) ions from real nickel plating wastewater, and then the concentrated Ni(II) ions in the regenerated solution were reduced to nickel sheet via electrodeposition. A commercial cation-exchange resin was selected and the optimal resin adsorption and regeneration conditions were investigated. The resin exhibited an adsorption capacity of 63 mg/g for Ni(II) ions, and the average amount of treated water was 84.6 bed volumes (BV) in the pilot-scale experiments. After the adsorption by two ion-exchange resin columns in series and one chelating resin column, the concentrations of Ni(II) in the treated wastewater were below 0.1 mg/L. After the regeneration of the spent resin using 3 BV of 4% (w/w) HCl solution, 1.5 BV of concentrated neutral nickel solution (>30 g/L) was obtained and used in the subsequent electrodeposition process. Using the aeration method, alkali and water required in resin activation process were greatly reduced to 2 BV and 3 BV, respectively. Under the optimal electrodeposition conditions, 95.6% of Ni(II) in desorption eluent could be recovered as the elemental nickel on the cathode. The total treatment cost for the resin adsorption and regeneration as well as the electrodeposition was calculated.     

Prevention of an atmospheric storage tank bund failure

Secondary containment (bunds, drip trays, interceptors/sumps) is an integral part of many chemical, petrochemical, as well as agricultural, food and pharmaceutical facilities. Bunds are the built-in cases for accidental liquid substance spillage where there is a hazard that a substance could leak into the surroundings and the potential of health or environmental damage. The authors focus on the cases installed in large-volume atmospheric tanks storing hazardous chemicals in liquid form, where the bund failure occurred. In the first part of the study, a database of these accidents was created, numbering a total of 15 items. Attention was paid to the course of the accident, its causes and consequences. Several basic representative scenarios of bund failure have also been developed. The second part of the study is devoted mainly to the measures against the bund failure, such as risk assessment, technical and organizational measures. The aim of this study is to provide readers (including experts in the field of safety engineering, maintenance experts and building designers) with the information that can subsequently be used in the risk assessment of bund failure, possibly also for planning the construction of new bunds, or revitalization and maintenance of the existing ones.     

综合拉底、扩漏和出矿全过程的底部结构安全性颗粒流模拟技术研究

为探明自然崩落法从拉底崩落至出矿全过程中底部结构节理连续扩展过程与破坏过程规律，采用PFC2D软件，结合RocLab软件反演节理岩体参数，建立229 m×129 m的岩体扩大模型，对拉底崩落至出矿过程进行连续综合计算。研究结果表明:模拟结果及破坏现象与现场监测结果相近，建模与细观参数反演方法适用于该类岩体工程研究；裂纹扩展贯通导致岩体失稳破坏，破坏过程与裂纹扩展具有相对应的阶段特征，裂纹扩展分为崩落前稳定扩展期，崩落与聚矿槽开挖过程加速扩展期和后续持续扩展期；结构破坏分为蕴育过程，扰动失稳过程和宏观破坏过程；较大范围的宏观破坏主要在出矿阶段。该模拟方法与结果可为底部结构维护以及节理岩体长期稳定性研究提供参考。     

基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究

为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效，针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点，建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型；借助可靠性理论，通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点，将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化；提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明:腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中，而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小；若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a，VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时，建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。     

爆炸冲击波作用下圆形通风设施的动态破坏特性

为了研究瓦斯爆炸对通风设施造成的严重破坏及其导致的通风系统紊乱与灾情迅速扩展问题，基于LS-DYNA有限元软件，模拟研究巷道中瓦斯爆炸冲击波作用下圆形通风设施的动态破坏特性，分析应力、应变、速度、位移的动态特征及其破坏过程，并对圆形通风设施动态破坏机理进行初步探索。研究结果表明:爆炸冲击波作用下，圆形通风设施正、反面出现压应力与拉应力分布圆环，且压应力与拉应力峰值处于在外部受约束边界径向圆环附近区域与圆心位置，应变、速度和位移最大值均分布在次区域；爆炸冲击波作用下，通风设施表面形成多圈的正向和反向的应变相互交替，呈现W型的褶皱变形；爆炸冲击波作用下，环向裂纹集中在受约束的边界区域附近，发生脆性破坏，其他区域会出现较多的径向裂纹，可发生韧性破坏，整个断裂过程是脆性与韧性断裂的混合型断裂。     

不同组合比例煤岩的电荷感应与微震规律试验研究

针对煤岩在屈服破坏过程中有微震和电荷信号产生这一特征,利用自行设计的微震和电荷感应信号监测试验系统,分析不同组合比例煤岩在变形破裂过程中微震和电荷信号的变化规律。研究结果表明:微震和电荷信号是低频信号,信号频谱集中分布在0~80 Hz,应力突变与微震信号和电荷信号的产生及变化有较好的一致性;随着“煤-岩”高度比的增加,试样的单轴抗压强度减小,试样屈服破裂时微震和电荷信号幅值增大,同步性增强,试件破坏的突发性增强;试件破坏过程中电荷比微震信号数更多,初次明显的电荷信号也早于初次明显的微震信号。     

Crop Failure in Dalocha, Ethiopia: A Participatory Emergency Response

This case study of an NGO's response to a food crisis due to crop failure focuses on the extent of active community participation at each stage of the project. With the current debate on the relationship between relief and development, and in particular the focus on encouraging more active community participation in relief responses, this study has relevance both in the Ethiopian context and beyond.
In this example the participation process was greatly facilitated by the prior relationship between the international NGO and the communities, and also by the high level of staff input into the project. Where resources or conditions are less favourable, as might be the case in similar responses by local NGOs or government agencies, the paper suggests that the participatory approach can be adapted or partially implemented and still result in a more effective and locally relevant operation.     

软木材料力学行为及其缓冲吸能特性研究进展综述

综述了软木材料的力学行为及其缓冲吸能特性方面的研究进展,首先从密度、含水率、温度、构造与缺陷、服役时间等方面阐述了不同因素对木材力学性能的影响.然后从宏观观测和微细观分析两方面概述了软木材料力学性能试验的研究进展,从宏观本构模型和细观模拟方面阐述了数值仿真分析进展,并简述了理论建模方面的研究成果.最后从多方面给出了未来相关工作的一些建议.