中国省级环境决策支持系统的系统分析

中国省级环境决策支持系统(DSS)是基于GIS和各种模型的空间决策支持系统?该文介绍了DSS系统的系统分析方法和内容,包括软件需求说明?数据需求说明和总体设计      

中国华南地区持续干期日数时空变化特征

利用华南地区46个地面气象站1960-2012年逐日降水数据,分析该地区各季节持续干期日数的时空分布特征。结果表明：1）近53年来,华南地区春季和夏季的持续干期日数呈波动下降趋势,下降速率分别为0.042和0.108 d·（10 a）-1;秋季和冬季的持续干期日数呈波动上升趋势,上升速率分别为1.911和0.118 d·（10 a）-1。广东省春季和夏季持续干期日数呈下降趋势,下降速率分别为0.171和0.243 d·（10 a）-1;秋季和冬季持续干期日数呈增加趋势,增加速率分别为1.737和0.32 d·（10 a）-1。广西省春、夏和秋季持续干期日数呈增加趋势,增加速率分别为0.109、0.046和2.117 d·（10 a）-1;冬季为减小趋势,减少速率为0.106 d·（10 a）-1。2）华南地区持续干期日数在春季呈从北向南逐渐增多的趋势,夏季呈自西南向东北逐渐增加的趋势,秋季呈自西向东逐渐增加的趋势,冬季呈从北向南逐渐增多的趋势。冬季的持续干期日数是4个季节中最长的,大致在20~44 d。3）华南地区春季持续干期日数变化倾向率在-1.20~1.00 d·（10 a）-1之间,增加趋势最明显的区域是广西省的南部地区,减少趋势最明显的区域是广东省的沿海地区;夏季在-1.00~0.60 d·（10 a）-1之间,呈增加趋势的区域主要位于广西省的中部和南部,呈减少趋势的区域位于广东省大部分地区和广西省的东部;秋季在0~3.50 d·（10 a）-1之间,整体呈现增加趋势,变化倾向率较大的区域主要位于广西省的中部和广东省的东北部沿海地区;冬季在-1.50~2.00 d·（10 a）-1之间,呈增加趋势的区域主要集中在广东省的中南部和东部地区,以及广西的东部边缘,呈减少趋势的区域主要集中在广东省的北部以及广西的中部和西北部地区。持续干期日数增加趋势最明显的季节是秋季。4）持续干期日数与降水量表现出负相关性,与气温和无降水日数表现为正相关性。降水量和无降水日数的变化对持续干期日数的变化起着重要的作用,而温度对持续干期日数的影响比较小。     

Humic substances. Part II†: Photophysical,photochemical and free radical characteristics

The effects of mercury (HgCl₂) on cell population, chlorophyll a concentration and rates of photosynthesis and excretion were investigated in the phytoplanktonic species Dunaliella minuta in laboratory cultures. Mercury, above 25ppb inhibited both cell population and chlorophyll a concentration approximately to the same extent, whereas the photosynthetic rate was inhibited to a significantly lesser degree. Although, the total photosynthetic rate of the tested organism was reduced, above a threshold concentration, the photosynthetic activity was not reduced under these conditions, but it was in fact significantly greater than that in the control culture. This may suggest that in D. minuta the inhibitory effect of mercury is primarily on cell division rather than cellular photosynthesis, which is enhanced by the fact mercury caused a significant increase of the mean cell volume. Mercury, also, decreased the growth rate and final cell yield. The excretory rate was markedly increased at concentrations ≥ 250 ppb of mercury, but at lower concentrations it tended to depend more on the physiological state of cells than on mercury concentration. In the different cultures, the photosynthetic activity showed variations which occurred without major changes in the chlorophyll a content per cell, which remained almost constant and independent of variations in cell size and growth conditions.     

Interannual fluctuations in acoustic biomass estimates and in landings of small pelagic fish populations in relation to hydrology in the Strait of Sicily

The main results of research work carried out since 1998 with regard to the application of hydro-acoustic technologies for the evaluation of biomass and distribution of small pelagic fish species off the southern coast of Sicily are presented, taking into account information from hydrology and from ecology of the fish populations targeted. The biomass estimates and the population‐density charts presented concern the two main species, i.e. sardine Sardina pilchardus (Walbaum, 1792) and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus (Linnaeus, 1758). Both the sardine and anchovy populations experienced large inter-annual fluctuations, with biomass estimates ranging from 6000 to over 36,000 tonnes (t) (sardine) and from about 7000 to 23,000 t (anchovy). Acoustic estimates are largely consistent with landings recorded in Sciacca (the main fishing port for small pelagic species in the study area) during the year following the evaluation surveys. In addition, trends in sardine and anchovy biomass estimates appears to be negatively correlated with the mean sea surface temperature calculated over the time intervals January–September (sardine) and June–November (anchovy) of the preceding year, which correspond to larval and juvenile growth periods of target species. Observed patterns would suggest the importance of enrichment processes relevant to the survival of early stages, so determining recruitment success and finally higher population sizes.     

Spatial variability in soil water and salinity in Tamarix community in a semiarid saline region of the upper Yellow River北大核心CSCD

Tamarix is widely distributed in semiarid saline regions of the upper Yellow River. The community of Tamarix affects the spatial distribution of soil water and salinity. It is important to explore the dynamic response relationship of Tamarix community and spatial distribution of soil water and salinity in order to evaluate the effects of vegetation community construction and ecological restoration in this region. The natural Tamarix community in the secondary saline-alkali land of the Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area was investigated in July 2016. Classical statistics and geostatistics were used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of soil water and salinity. The results showed that the soil water content was relatively low (1.98%-7.55%), whereas the soil salinity was high (average conductivity 10.28-25.38 mS/cm) in the study area. The variability coefficient range of soil water and salinity was 36.1%-83.7%, both with moderate variations. Furthermore, the variation degree of soil salinity decreased with the increase in soil depth. The soil water and salinity had obvious spatial structure characteristics, which was mainly affected by structural factors or structural factors associated with stochastic factors. The coefficients of nugget were 0.04%-49.88%, indicating the strong spatial correlation. The spatial distribution of soil water and salinity in Tamarix community showed a patchy pattern; the soil water and salinity distribution in the areas with high Tamarix growing density were considerably high. The correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between soil water and salinity in the study area. In conclusion, soil water and salinity restrict the distribution and growth of Tamarix. Furthermore, the distribution and growth of Tamarix enhanced the spatial variability of soil water and salinity. Keywords. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

Continuous versus binary representations of landscape heterogeneity in spatially-explicit models of mobile populations

How a landscape is represented is an important structural assumption in spatially-explicit simulation models. Simple models tend to specify just habitat and non-habitat (binary), while more complex models may use multiple levels or a continuum of habitat quality (continuous). How these different representations influence model projections is unclear. To assess the influence of landscape representation on population models, I developed a general, individual-based model with local dispersal and examined population persistence across binary and continuous landscapes varying in the amount and fragmentation of habitat. In binary and continuous landscapes habitat and non-habitat were assigned a unique mean suitability. In continuous landscapes, suitability of each individual site was then drawn from a normal distribution with fixed variance. Populations went extinct less often and abundances were higher in continuous landscapes. Production in habitat and non-habitat was higher in continuous landscapes, because the range of habitat suitability sampled by randomly dispersing individuals was higher than the overall mean habitat suitability. Increasing mortality, dispersal distance, and spatial heterogeneity all increased the discrepancy between continuous and binary landscapes. The effect of spatial structure on the probability of extinction was greater in binary landscapes. These results show that, under certain circumstances, model projections are influenced by how variation in suitability within a landscape is represented. Care should be taken to assess how a given species actually perceives the landscape when conducting population viability analyses or empirical validation of theory.     

Factors promoting or inhibiting Turing instability in spatially extended prey-predator systems

The emergence of inhomogeneities in the distributions of the abundances of spatially extended prey-predator systems is investigated. The method of analysis, based on the notion of diffusive (Turing) instability, is systematically applied to nine different models obtained by introducing an extra-factor into the standard Rosenzweig-MacArthur prey-predator model. The analysis confirms that the standard model is critical in the context of Turing instability, and that the introduction of any small amount of the extra-factor can easily promote or inhibit the emergence of spatial patterns.     

Robustness and vulnerability of community irrigation systems: The case of the Taos valley acequias

Traditional economic and policy analysis theory has emphasized the implementation of private or public property rights regimes in order to sustainably manage natural resources. More recent work has challenged this approach by examining the strengths and weakness of common property governance of such resources. This paper contributes to this literature by analyzing the acequia irrigation communities in northern New Mexico. Through statistical analysis, we find that the acequias’ ability to maintain collective-action as estimated by a critical performance function, crop production, is aided by water sharing agreements and access to groundwater, and that it is hampered by property rights fragmentation and urbanization.     

The landscape epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa: A spatially explicit multi-agent simulation

This study aimed at understanding how landscape heterogeneity influences outbreaks of contagious diseases in southern Africa. Landscape attributes influence patterns of movement and behaviour of animal hosts, virus spread and survival, as well as land use practices. A multi-agent simulation was developed to represent the spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogens between human-livestock and wildlife interfaces at the fringe of large wildlife conservation areas. The model represents the three main elements associated with epidemics - populations, space, and time - to simulate direct contacts between wildlife and livestock. The dynamics of these populations emerge from interactions between agents and the landscape. The model was calibrated to represent the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease through direct contact at the border of the Kruger National Park in South Africa. In the region, African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) act as reservoirs of the virus and spread the infection to domestic cattle bordering the park. We tested the sensitivity of various factors influencing contact rate between buffaloes and cattle, and thus the risk of foot-and-mouth disease transmission. Results show that cattle-buffalo contacts mostly depend on the range of displacements of cattle and buffaloes, as influenced by the landscape configuration, and on the number of fence breakages multiplied by the time between breakage and repair. Contacts take place not only close to water-points but also in grazing areas, within an area up to 6 km from the fence.     

Forecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancy

Forecasting the temporal trend of a focal species, its range expansion or retraction, provides crucial information regarding population viability. To this end, we require the accumulation of temporal records which is evidently time consuming. Progress in spatial data capturing has enabled rapid and accurate assessment of species distribution across large scales. Therefore, it would be appealing to infer the temporal trends of populations from the spatial structure of their distributions. Based on a combination of models from the fields of range dynamics, occupancy scaling and spatial autocorrelation, here I present a model for forecasting the population trend solely from its spatial distribution. Numerical tests using cellular automata confirm a positive correlation, as inferred from the model, between the temporal change in species range sizes and the exponent of the power-law scaling pattern of occupancy. The model is thus recommended for rapid estimation of species range dynamics from a single snapshot of its current distribution. Further applications in biodiversity conservation could provide a swift risk assessment, especially, for endangered and invasive species.