基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型及应用——以祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段为例

针对区域生态安全预警中的不确定性问题,考虑生态安全等级边界信息的随机性、模糊性及动态性,利用可拓学中兼具定性和定量分析及动态性的物元理论和具有不确定推理特性的云模型,提出了基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型;运用该模型对祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年生态安全进行了定量评估,并对2017年生态安全环境进行动态预警。结果表明:祁连山生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年的生态安全整体水平均处于"理想"以下,其变化趋势为"较差"到"一般"再到"良好";2017年祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全为"蓝色"预警,但有向"黄色"转变的趋势,其中工业三废、环保投入强度、森林覆盖率及人均水资源量是影响祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全的主要因素。     

坚持人与自然和谐共生,推动生态文明建设——“美丽秦巴”专家笔谈

建设生态文明是中华民族永续发展的千年大计。为维护全球生态安全,建设美丽中国,为人民创造良好生产生活环境,达到坚持人与自然和谐共生的目标,就必须正确认识自然规律、尊重地球、敬畏地球、规范人类行为;必须树立和践行绿水青山就是金山银山的理念,坚持节约资源和保护环境的基本国策,像对待生命一样对待生态环境;必须坚持节约优先、保护优先、自然恢复为主的方针,形成节约资源和保护环境的空间格局、产业结构、生产方式和生活方式,还自然以宁静、和谐与美丽。     

Polar organic tracers in PM2.5 aerosols from an inland background area in Southwest China: Correlations between secondary organic aerosol tracers and source apportionment

PM_(2.5) aerosol samples were collected over 12 hr and 24 hr intervals in an inland background area, Gongga Mountain National Nature Reserve(hereafter shortened to Gongga), during the summer of 2011. Polar organic tracers, inorganic ions and meteorological data were measured. The purpose of this work was to investigate the variation patterns, formation and sources of the secondary organic aerosol tracers in the studied atmosphere. The average concentrations of isoprene oxidation products, α-pinene oxidation products, β-caryophyllinic acid, sugars, sugar alcohols and anhydrosugars were 88.6 ± 106.1, 3.6 ± 5.7,0.13 ± 0.30, 13.6 ± 13.1, 31.9 ± 31.4 and 14.8 ± 10.7 ng/m3 respectively in all aerosol samples.The aged α-pinene second organic aerosol(SOA) tracers(i.e., 3-hydroxyglutraric acid(3 HGA), 3-hydroxy-2,2-dimethylglutaric acid(HDMGA), 3-acetylpentandioic acid(APDA) and 3-methyl-1,2,3-butanetricarboxylic acid(MBTCA)) correlated significantly with each other in the 24 hr PM2.5 aerosol samples, indicating that OH· is the major factor controlling the formation of these α-pinene SOA tracers. Using the positive matrix factorization(PMF) model and the tracer-based source apportionment method, we calculated that isoprene oxidation products, α-pinene oxidation products, sesquiterpene oxidation products, biomass burning, fungi spores and anthropogenic SOA accounted for 21.9% ± 5.5%, 8.4% ± 2.1%, 3.0% ± 0.7%, 5.2% ± 5.3%, 5.0% ± 6.2% and 31.4% ± 7.8% of organic carbon respectively during the sampling period.     

塔儿山铁矿区土壤重金属污染评价及来源分析

通过采样分析山西省临汾市塔儿山铁矿区土壤中重金属元素的含量,揭示塔儿山铁矿区土壤中重金属污染的程度和来源,为矿区土壤污染治理修复提供参考依据。在尾矿区、复垦区、当地原始农业土壤区、处理污灌农地土区分别随机采集土壤样品,并进行9种重金属含量测定,采用地累积指数法和变异系数进行污染等级评价分析,并测定了土壤p H值。矿区As、Se、Zn、Pb 4种元素达到强度污染标准,Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni 4种元素为轻中度污染,无Hg元素污染;铁矿区土壤的p H值高于8.0,属于强碱性,不利于农作物的正常生长发育。粗放的铁矿开采活动是产生重金属污染的主要原因。     

A Comparison of Sampling Designs for Monitoring Recreational Trail Impacts in Rocky Mountain National Park

The dual goals of the Organic Act of 1916 and Wilderness Act of 1964 are to protect natural resources and provide quality visitor experiences. Park managers need metrics of trail conditions to protect park resources and quality of visitor experiences. A few methods of sampling design for trails have been developed. Here, we describe a relatively new method, spatially balanced sampling, and compare it to systematic sampling. We evaluated the efficiency of sampling designs to measure recreation-related impacts in Rocky Mountain National Park. This study addressed two objectives: first, it compared estimates of trail conditions from data collected from systematic versus spatially balanced sampling data; second, it examined the relationship between sampling precision and sampling efficiency. No statistically significant differences in trail condition were found between the 100-m interval and the spatially balanced datasets. The spatially balanced probability-based dataset was found to be a good estimate of trail conditions when analyses were conducted with fewer sample points. Moreover, spatially balanced probability-based sampling is flexible and allows additional sample points to be added to a sample.     

Assessment of Biological and Environmental Phenology at a Landscape Level from 30 Years of Fixed-Date Repeat Photography in Northern Sweden

A 30-year series (1978–2007) of photographic records were analysed to determine changes in lake ice cover, local (low elevation) and montane (high elevation) snow cover and phenological stages of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) at the Abisko Scientific Research Station, Sweden. In most cases, the photographic-derived data showed no significant difference in phenophase score from manually observed field records from the same period, demonstrating the accuracy and potential of using weekly repeat photography as a quicker, cheaper and more adaptable tool to remotely study phenology in both biological and physical systems. Overall, increases in ambient temperatures coupled with decreases in winter ice and snow cover, and earlier occurrence of birch foliage, signal a reduction in the length of winter, a shift towards earlier springs and an increase in the length of available growing season in the Swedish sub-arctic.     

紫金山登山道主要树种抗火性研究

比较分析了紫金山登山道两侧主要树种的抗火能力,对紫金山不同立地、区位的森林生物防火林带建设和树种选择进行探讨和分析。利用层次分析法,从树种燃烧特性、生物学和生态抗火特性三个方面对紫金山登山道路两侧32种主要树种的抗火性进行综合评价分析,并利用聚类分析对32种树种的抗火性进行分类。结果表明:石楠、油茶、冬青、栓皮栎、青冈、枸骨、麻栎等12种树种综合抗火性较强;朴树、枫香、黄檀、黄连木等7种树种综合抗火性一般;糙叶树、短叶中华石楠、苦树、山胡椒、紫薇、狭叶山胡椒等12种树种综合抗火性较弱;马尾松综合抗火性最弱。树种抗火性评价的11项评价指标中树叶特性、含水率、树皮特征、热值、树冠结构5项指标对树种抗火性影响较大,综合生物学特征对树种抗火性影响最大。冬青、青冈、女贞等常绿大乔木,石楠、油茶、枸骨、茶树等常绿灌木抗火性较强,可以作为防火树种。糙叶树、短叶中华石楠、苦树、山胡椒、紫薇、狭叶山胡椒、瓜木、构树、鸡爪槭、白檀、青桐、卫矛、马尾松等抗火性差,在森林防火中需要重点防护。     

豫西地区植被覆盖的空间变化研究

应用遥感技术,利用长时间序列的SPOT VEGETATION NDVI数据集,结合改进的像元二分模型,对豫西山区1998年、2003年和2008年的植被覆盖度进行计算。结果表明,豫西山区植被覆盖总体上略有上升,局部地区植被覆盖度有所下降。高海拔区域植被覆盖相对稳定,退化概率较低;低海拔区域植被退化和恢复的概率都相对较高;坡度小的区域植被退化和修复的概率都较高;坡度较大的区域植被轻微退化概率增大,坡度越大,植被覆盖修复的概率越低;南坡和北坡植被覆盖度相对较高,东坡和西坡植被覆盖度较低;西南坡向的植被退化相对严重,东南坡向植被退化概率相对较低。     

建设秦岭国家中央公园的探究

通过对秦岭的综合分析,借鉴国外＂国家公园＂的建设经验,从秦岭目前开发现状存在的问题及其原因进行分析研究,提出应成立国家秦岭管理局,科学开发保护秦岭,分不同区域建设秦岭国家中央公园;在发展生态旅游的同时,积极整合资源,争取加入世界人与生物圈,联合申遗,推动秦岭走向世界,从而实现秦岭地区人与自然的可持续发展。     

重庆金佛山降雪中飞灰单颗粒特征及来源解析

大气降雪能够保存大气环境信息,是研究区域环境的良好介质.位于渝黔交接带的金佛山海拔2 251.1 m,冬季降水以降雪的形式出现,周边区域人类活动强烈.关于该区域大气气溶胶中的飞灰单颗粒特征的研究比较缺乏.本研究采集了金佛山5个降雪样品,运用扫描电镜及X能谱分析联用系统(SEM-EDS)对样品中的132个飞灰进行单颗粒形貌、化学组成分析.结果表明,研究区降雪中存在大量球形飞灰,包含光滑颗粒、粗糙颗粒及聚合体颗粒3种形态,分别占统计颗粒的80.31%、14.39%和5.30%;平均粒径1.64μm,平均环度1.09.按主导化学元素分为富硅类、富碳类、富铁类、富铝类及富钛类5种,所占比例分别为34.09%、49.24%、12.88%、2.27%和1.52%.结合气象资料、气团后向运移轨迹和飞灰性质,推测富碳类飞灰可能主要来自于生活排放源和工业活动;富硅类飞灰可能来自于渝西、黔北、湘中、浙赣一带及粤西的火力发电厂等高温燃煤工业;富铁类及富钛类飞灰则可能来源于渝西和黔北、湘中的钢铁厂、轧钢厂等金属冶炼活动.