对灾害研究中几个问题的思考

对灾害研究中有关的几个问题进行了探讨。认为： 灾害学是最重要的自然社会科学; 人文灾害比自然灾害更具毁灭性; 研究人文灾害中的公路交通事故、核战争问题、人口问题、环境污染问题等具有重要的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

基于安全流变理论的交通系统事故过程分析

运用事物的安全流变规律分析系统的运行过程 ,指出系统的运行过程符合安全流变规律。通过对交通系统中的不安全因素扰动的分析 ,揭示了交通系统的安全流变特征 ;对传统的事故定义进行了拓展 ,将事故隐患纳入了事故的发展过程 ;提出了交通系统事故安全流变分析方法 ;最后通过一个具体的案例分析了系统事故的安全流变过程。     

Adolescent driver risk taking and driver education: evidence of a mobility bias in public policymaking

PROBLEM: Road traffic injury is the leading cause of death among adolescents in high-income countries. Researchers attribute this threat to driver risk taking, which driver education (DE) attempts to reduce. Many North American authorities grant DE graduates earlier access to unsupervised driving despite no evidence of this being a safety benefit. This theoretical article examines risk taking and DE in relation to an apparent mobility bias (MB) in policymaking. METHOD: The MB is defined, the history and sources of driver risk taking are examined, and the failure of DE to reduce collision risk is analyzed in relation to a potential MB in licensing policies. DISCUSSION: The author argues that DE's failure to reduce adolescent collision risk is associated with a MB that has produced insufficient research into DE programs and that influences public policymakers to grant earlier licensure to DE graduates. Recommendations are made regarding future research on DE and risk taking, coordinated improvements to DE and driver licensing, and a plan to reduce collision risk by encouraging parental supervision after adolescent licensure. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Research on adolescent driver risk taking would have direct applications in DE curricula development, driver's license evaluation criteria, graduated licensing (GDL) policies, as well as other aspects of human factor research into the crash-risk problem.     

New Zealand drivers study: developing a methodology for conducting a follow-up study of newly licensed drivers

PROBLEM: In recent years, there has been a significant reduction in traffic crash injury among young people, but they continue to be overrepresented in the traffic crash statistics. To improve this situation, sound scientific evidence is needed to develop effective policies and programs. METHOD: The aim of the proposed study is to provide this evidence by examining early driving and driving-related experiences of newly licensed drivers as they progress through the learner-, restricted-, and full-license stages of the graduated licensing system and to determine the impact of these experiences on subsequent negative traffic-related outcomes (risky driving behavior, injury traffic crashes, noninjury traffic crashes, infringements, convictions). Given the size and complexity of the proposed study, a comprehensive pilot study was undertaken to determine the feasibility of conducting a New Zealand-wide cohort study of newly licensed drivers. RESULTS: This article describes the pilot study process and the methodology that has been developed for the New Zealand-wide study.     

高速公路交通事故分析及预防对策研究

利用济青高速公路 1998～ 1999年发生的 10 85起交通事故数据 ,在资料收集、处理和统计分析的基础上 ,对影响高速公路交通事故的人、车辆、道路环境、天气和交通量等主要因素进行了分析 ,并与国外的统计结果进行对比研究 ,预测出随着高速公路交通量的增长 ,事故率将会增加。此外 ,笔者针对影响高速公路事故因素提出了主动性、被动性预防对策 ,这些对策的实施将会减少高速公路事故的发生     

An algorithm for assessing the risk of traffic accident

INTRODUCTION: This study is aimed at developing an algorithm to estimate the number of traffic accidents and assess the risk of traffic accidents in a study area. METHOD: The algorithm involves a combination of mapping technique (Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques) and statistical methods (cluster analysis and regression analysis). Geographical Information System is used to locate accidents on a digital map and realize their distribution. Cluster analysis is used to group the homogeneous data together. Regression analysis is performed to realize the relation between the number of accident events and the potential causal factors. Negative binomial regression model is found to be an appropriate mathematical form to mimic this relation. Accident risk of the area, derived from historical accident records and causal factors, is also determined in the algorithm. The risk is computed using the Empirical Bayes (EB) approach. A case study of Hong Kong is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. RESULTS: The results show that the algorithm improves accident risk estimation when comparing to the estimated risk based on only the historical accident records. The algorithm is found to be more efficient, especially in the case of fatality and pedestrian-related accident analysis. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The output of the proposed algorithm can help authorities effectively identify areas with high accident risk. In addition, it can serve as a reference for town planners considering road safety.     

Investigation of seat belt use among the drivers of different education levels

Seat belt use habit has been investigated according to the education level of drivers. Copies of a questionnaire were distributed to 1000 participants of four different education levels. Factors such as seat belt usage habit, restricting factors and crash data have been investigated. Data have been analyzed with SPSS 15.0 software. Increased level of education leads to increased seat belt usage, lower numbers of crashes and crash severities. The factors restricting seat belt use are lack of habit, discomfort and short distance driving. The use of precaution signal and increases in comfort can increase seat belt usage. The primary and high school education on traffic safety and seat belt usage has been serving the purpose.     

Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of “Serio” Valley

The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in “Serio” Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk, respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.     

北京市道路积雪污染及特性研究

通过2009~2012年对北京市区道路旁积雪的取样,分析了积雪中污染物的浓度和特性,并对国内外普遍关注的融雪剂污染问题及其控制进行了初步分析。得出道路积雪中+NH 4-N、TN、TP、COD、SS、Cd等污染物主要来自交通活动,氯化物主要来自氯盐融雪剂;与《地表水环境质量标准》相比,道路积雪中主要污染物为NH+4-N、TN、COD、BOD和氯化物,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd等重金属的污染水平不高,可达到Ⅴ类水体标准;相同地点近似降水量条件下,积雪中TP、COD、SS的平均浓度高于降雨径流;北京市交通主干道及人行道上喷撒氯盐融雪剂的量高于国外道路,控制其污染主要通过源头减少使用量、使用替代融雪剂、严格融雪剂标准和使用方法、严肃责任追究、加强宣传教育等措施。     

Environmental Equity and the Role of Public Policy: Experiences in the Rijnmond Region

This Φ Ψ study of environmental equity uses secondary quantitative data to analyze socioeconomic disparities in environmental conditions in the Rijnmond region of the Netherlands. The disparities of selected environmental indicators—exposure to traffic noise (road, rail, and air), NO₂, external safety risks, and the availability of public green space—are analyzed both separately and in combination. Not only exposures to environmental burdens (“bads”) were investigated, but also access to environmental benefits (“goods”). Additionally, we held interviews and reviewed documents to grasp the mechanisms underlying the environmental equity situation, with an emphasis on the role of public policy. Environmental equity is not a priority in public policy for the greater Rotterdam region known as the Rijnmond region, yet environmental standards have been established to provide a minimum environmental quality to all local residents. In general, environmental quality has improved in this region, and the accumulation of negative environmental outcomes (“bads”) has been limited. However, environmental standards for road traffic noise and NO₂ are being exceeded, probably because of the pressure on space and the traffic intensity. We found an association of environmental “bads” with income for rail traffic noise and availability of public green space. In the absence of regulation, positive environmental outcomes (“goods”) are mainly left up to market forces. Consequently, higher-income groups generally have more access to environmental “goods” than lower-income groups.