从安全角度设计车险条款的探讨

为了使驾驶者安全驾驶,达到减少交通事故和降低保险公司理赔支出的目的,笔者的研究课题是从安全角度出发,通过条款细分的方法讨论了安全驾驶与保费厘定之间的关系,确立了“以人为本”、“从车原则”的车险条款厘定细分原则。通过分析人的性别、年龄、驾龄、驾驶记录因素、车的安全性能和使用方式等因素对安全驾驶的影响,可以得出以下结论:适当减少安全驾车者的投保费用,增加风险大的驾驶者和投保车辆的投保费用,这样可以做到以防为主,减少交通事故发生,发挥保险对交通危险的调控作用,也有利于整治保险行业的违规行为,实现车险市场的公开、公平、公正的竞争态势。     

道路交通安全知识提取方法及其递进式模型的研究

道路交通数据资源日益膨胀和复杂化 ,已经远远超出了人脑的记忆和分析能力。面对道路交通的海量数据 ,传统运用的DBMS和OLTP技术 ,已无法发现隐藏在数据背后的关系、规则和发展趋势等新的内容、知识和信息。因此 ,建立基于DMKD的智能道路交通安全决策支持系统是相关部门急需解决的重大课题。笔者重点介绍了数据挖掘、知识发现的概念 ,提出了基于DW +OLAP +DMKD的道路交通安全决策支持系统 ,通过道路交通系统的要素分析 ,介绍了一种面向属性的粗糙集方法提取规则 ,并阐述了一种递进式规则评价提炼过程。     

Impact of Busy Roads on Breeding Success in Pied Flycatchers <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ficedula hypoleuca</Emphasis>

The impact of dense traffic on the breeding success in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) was studied using roadside nest-boxes. Nest site selection and breeding success of flycatchers were observed in relation to the distance from the road. The number of occupied territories was no higher closer to the road than it was deeper inside the forest. The distance to the road had no effect on the laying date, clutch size, or brood size. However, nests closer to the road were more likely to fail at the chick stage. The number of broods that were closer to roads and were lost completely was significantly higher than those further away. As a consequence, the number of fledglings per breeding attempt decreased closer to roads. The nestlings typically died as older chicks when the parent birds were providing them with maximum quantities of food. A possible reason for the declining reproductive success was the traffic-related mortality of parent birds, as weather conditions were not especially adverse for raising healthy offspring.     

论道路交通安全环境

通过对道路交通环境与交通安全关系的阐述 ,分析了由于道路在规划、设计等方面的原因而导致交通事故的机理 ,探讨了道路环境在使用过程中技术状况对交通安全的影响 ,建立了道路交通安全体系 ,剖析了系统内各因素之间的关系 ,提出了道路安全环境对交通安全的影响有着极其重要的意义。文中还针对性地提出了改善交通安全状况、降低交通事故发生量的对策。     

Revealing source signatures in ambient BTEX concentrations

Management of ambient concentrations of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) is essential for maintaining low ozone levels in urban areas where its formation is under a VOC-limited regime. The significant decrease in traffic-induced VOC emissions in many developed countries resulted in relatively comparable shares of traffic and non-traffic VOC emissions in urban airsheds. A key step for urban air quality management is allocating ambient VOC concentrations to their pertinent sources. This study presents an approach that can aid in identifying sources that contribute to observed BTEX concentrations in areas characterized by low BTEX concentrations, where traditional source apportionment techniques are not useful. Analysis of seasonal and diurnal variations of ambient BTEX concentrations from two monitoring stations located in distinct areas reveal the possibility to identify source categories. Specifically, the varying oxidation rates of airborne BTEX compounds are used to allocate contributions of traffic emissions and evaporative sources to observed BTEX concentrations.     

Air Quality Management: Participatory Ranking of Control Measures and Conflict Analysis

The ranking of air quality control measures according to a number of evaluation criteria and with the participation of a large number of interested publics is demonstrated. A pilot study for the South Coast Air Quality Management District of California serves as the reference point. Several methodological considerations are addressed, such as: (a) the enhancement of criterion priorities to account for the variability among the performance of the control measures when incommensurable impact levels are applied: (b) the derivation of alternative rankings according to the priorities of potential coalitions; (c) the assessment of the potential acceptability of a collective ranking given the degree of solidarity among participants with similar interest affiliations; and (b) the assessment of the extent to which the performance of specific control measures may override priority differences and lead to insignificant ranking differences.     

Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality

This study compared three forecasting models based on the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of their accuracy in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the combination model used four sample point and five sample point prediction with GM (1,1)(GM(1,1)^4 + 5), and the modified grey model (MGM). An MGM was combined using the four points of the original sequence using the original grey prediction GM (1,1) for short-term forecasting. The proposed method cannot only enhance the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but can also solve the jump data forecasting problem something for which the original grey model is inappropriate. The MAPE was applied to the models, and the MGM found the proposed method to be simple and efficient. The MAPE of MGM, calculated over 3 h of forecasts, were as follows: 10.12 (Upwind), 10.07 (Middle) and 7.68 (Downwind) for CO; 10.79 (Upwind), 6.05 (Middle) and 5.98 (Downwind) for NO _x , and 11.67 (Upwind), 7.32 (Middle) and 4.56 (Downwind) for NMHC. The MGM model results reveal that the combined forecasts can significantly decrease the overall forecasting error. Results of this demonstrate that MGM can accurately forecast air pollution in the Kaohsiung Chung–Cheng Tunnel.     

Evaluation of the Reading, PA nighttime safety belt enforcement campaign: September 2004

PROBLEM: Safety belt use rates among front seat occupants of passenger vehicles are substantially lower at night than during the day despite the fact that night driving is more dangerous. METHOD: Recent advances in night vision equipment now make it possible to enforce belt use laws in darkness. Reading, Pennsylvania conducted a night belt use publicity and enforcement campaign during September 2004 using night vision equipment. RESULTS: Front seat occupant belt use at night increased significantly from 50% prior to the campaign to 56% just after the campaign. Daylight belt use also increased though to a lesser extent (56% to 59%). Survey data indicated that motorists had heard about the campaign in newspapers and on television. Belt use increases were not seen during the same time period in a comparison community.     

Characteristics of worker accidents on NYSDOT construction projects

INTRODUCTION: This paper aims at providing cost-effective safety measures to protect construction workers in highway work zones, based on real data. Two types of accidents that occur in work zones were: (a) construction work area accidents, and (b) traffic accidents involving construction worker(s). METHODOLOGY/RESULTS: A detailed analysis of work zone accidents involving 36 fatalities and 3,055 severe injuries to construction workers on New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) construction projects from 1990 to 2001 established that five accident types: (a) Struck/Pinned by Large Equipment, (b) Trip or Fall (elevated), (c) Contact w/Electrical or Gas Utility, (d) Struck-by Moving/Falling Load, and (e) Crane/Lift Device Failure accounted for nearly 96% of the fatal accidents, nearly 63% of the hospital-level injury accidents, and nearly 91% of the total costs. These construction work area accidents had a total cost of $133.8 million. Traffic accidents that involve contractors' employees were also examined. Statistical analyses of the traffic accidents established that five traffic accident types: (a) Work Space Intrusion, (b) Worker Struck-by Vehicle Inside Work Space, (c) Flagger Struck-by Vehicle, (d) Worker Struck-by Vehicle Entering/Exiting Work Space, and (e) Construction Equipment Struck-by Vehicle Inside Work Space accounted for nearly 86% of the fatal, nearly 70% of the hospital-level injury and minor injury traffic accidents, and $45.4 million (79.4%) of the total traffic accident costs. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this paper provide real statistics on construction worker related accidents reported on construction work zones. Potential preventions based on real statistics have also been suggested. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The ranking of accident types, both within the work area as well as in traffic, will guide the heavy highway contractor and owner agencies in identifying the most cost effective safety preventions.     

Work domain analysis for air traffic controller weather displays

INTRODUCTION: Adverse weather conditions have a major impact on National Airspace System (NAS) operations. They create safety hazards for pilots, constrain the usable airspace for air traffic control (ATC), and reduce the overall capacity of the NAS. A system-wide dissemination of weather information to controllers could theoretically improve safety and efficiency. PROBLEM: However, it is currently unclear what weather information would be beneficial for tactical operations. Furthermore, no previous research has empirically evaluated optimal presentation designs for ATC weather displays. Ill-designed weather displays can cause safety hazards by presenting redundant information (i.e., by increasing the cognitive load) and display clutter (e.g., by interfering with the visual extraction of traffic data). METHOD: In the present paper, we outline our use of cognitive work analysis (CWA) techniques for the assessment of weather information needs for terminal controllers. RESULTS: Specifically, we describe how the CWA modeling tools helped us reveal instances in the terminal domain where weather information is lacking or insufficiently disseminated. We used our CWA results to drive the development of weather display concepts and to set up a high-fidelity simulation capability. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: By means of high-fidelity simulations, we can empirically evaluate controller weather information needs in order to propose weather displays for increased aircraft safety and efficiency of terminal operations.