Detecting Changes in Natural Resources Using Land Condition Trend Analysis Data

The Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) program is the US Army's standard for land inventory and monitoring, employing standardized methods of natural resources data collection, analyses, and reporting designed to meet multiple goals and objectives. Critical to using LCTA data in natural resources management decisions is the ability of the LCTA protocols to detect changes in natural resources. To quantify the ability of LCTA protocols to detect resource changes, power analysis techniques were used to estimate minimum detectable effect sizes (MDES) for selected primary and secondary management variables for three Army installations. MDES for a subset of primary variables were estimated using data from 27 installation LCTA programs. MDES for primary and secondary variables varied widely. However, LCTA programs implemented at larger installations with lower sampling intensities detected changes in installation resources as well as programs implemented at smaller more intensively sampled installations. As a national monitoring program that is implemented at individual installations, LCTA protocols provide relatively consistent monitoring data to detect changes in resources despite diverse resource characteristics and implementation constraints.     

我国地震应急指挥技术体系初探

地震应急指挥技术系统是防震减灾建设的核心内容。”十五”期间,将建设中国地震应急指挥技术系统。目前我国在这方面的研究和建设尚处于初级阶段,其体系结构,关键构成、设计和实现还有许多问题值得进一步研究和探讨。根据所从事的项目建设过程,对地震应急指挥技术系统的体系结构进行了阐述,介绍了在此基础上开展的首都圈地震应急指挥系统建设工作,并就今后的发展进行了讨论。     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

青藏铁路列车运行控制系统的安全性分析

分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析     

Using Decision Analysis to Choose Phosphorus Targets for Lake Erie

Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made, but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues, natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties, while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake. The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie.     

Methodological Development of an Index of Coastal Water Quality: Application in a Tourist Area

With the aim of obtaining an index of coastal water quality, a methodological procedure based on numerical classification and discriminant analysis is presented. The procedure was applied to nutrient data (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate) analyzed along the coastal waters of a Spanish tourist area. Using numerical classification, three levels of nutrient loading were revealed, characterizing oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and potentially eutrophic waters. Discriminant analysis was shown to be an effective methodological tool in the discrimination between trophic groups. For every group, the discriminant procedure generated the centroids. The centroids representing oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic conditions were used to establish the two extremes of the continuum of mesotrophic conditions in these coastal waters: Standardizing values from -1 to 1, the centroids for oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic waters yielded an interval that defined the range of mesotrophic conditions. This interval is proposed as a water quality index. The ability of the coastal water quality index to successfully predict mesotrophic conditions was proved with random samples.     

On Methods for Analyzing Ecotones of Forest Margins

A simple method for the quantitative gradient analysis of a xerotermic forest-margin ecotone is described. In this method, the mean value of the coefficient of similarity between all plots of the transect is used for estimating the rate of changes in species composition. Changes in the phytosociological spectrum are analyzed. The method adequately reflects trends in the displacement of forest species by forest-margin, steppe, and meadow species.     

Environmental Health Policy: Analytic “Framing” of the Great Lakes Picture

/ The International Joint Commission (IJC) has overseen the implementation of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between Canada and the United States for 25 years. Part of its mandate has been to facilitate international cooperation among a diversity of stakeholders focusing on the "waters" and the "ecosystem." In the 1970s policy focused on phosphorus reduction and individual contaminants, with some efforts (after 1978) to take an ecosystem (ecological perspectives) approach. In the last 15 years human health effects from (real and perceived) environmental causes have received considerable recognition. By contrast, less concern has been expressed for what is traditionally considered "environment" issues (such as protecting fish species). This shift at the policy level is well illustrated in the manner in which human health is increasingly used as a way for mobilizing environmental agendas. This paper analyzes nine IJC biennial reports to track how the framing of Great Lakes issues has shifted from concern for its waters to concern for human neurobehavior and reproductive systems. Frame analysis is used to conceptualize the controversies that are expressed through the Great Lakes policy documents. The analysis of the reports also reveals a shift in operational frames, used by the IJC to mobilize decision-makers into action.     

Development of a Methodology for Selecting Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management: A Case Study on Participatory Assessment

This paper describes an application of multiple criteria analysis (MCA) in assessing criteria and indicators adapted for a particular forest management unit. The methods include: ranking, rating, and pairwise comparisons. These methods were used in a participatory decision-making environment where a team representing various stakeholders and professionals used their expert opinions and judgements in assessing different criteria and indicators (C&I) on the one hand, and how suitable and applicable they are to a forest management unit on the other. A forest concession located in Kalimantan, Indonesia, was used as the site for the case study. Results from the study show that the multicriteria methods are effective tools that can be used as structured decision aids to evaluate, prioritize, and select sets of C&I for a particular forest management unit. Ranking and rating approaches can be used as a screening tool to develop an initial list of C&I. Pairwise comparison, on the other hand, can be used as a finer filter to further reduce the list. In addition to using these three MCA methods, the study also examines two commonly used group decision-making techniques, the Delphi method and the nominal group technique. Feedback received from the participants indicates that the methods are transparent, easy to implement, and provide a convenient environment for participatory decision-making.     

Locational Probability for a Dammed, Urbanizing Stream: Salt River, Arizona, USA

/ Data from historical aerial photographs analyzed with a GIS show that river channel change on the Salt River in the Phoenix metropolitan area of central Arizona has been driven by large-scale regional flood events and local human activities. Mapping of functional surfaces such as low-flow channels, high-flow channels, islands, bars attached to channel banks, and engineered surfaces shows that during the period from 1935 to 1997, the relative areal coverage of these surfaces has changed. Flood events have caused general changes in sinuosity of the low-flow channel, but islands have remained remarkably consistent in location and size, while channel-side bars have waxed and waned. The most important determinant of local channel form and process is sand and gravel mining, which in some reaches occupies more than 70% of the active channel area. The general location of mining is closely related to the location of the moving urban fringe, which serves as a market for sand and gravel during construction. Quantitative spatial analysis of imagery supplemented by field mapping shows that for each location within the general channel area, it is possible to specify a probability of encountering a low-flow channel or other fluvial features. Maps showing the distribution of these probabilities of occurrence reveal the most probable location and configuration of the channel as it occurred in the past. Some reaches have the low-flow channel located persistently within a limited area as a result of bedrock or sinuosity controls, but other reaches dominated by flow separation or shallow gradient have almost no persistence in channel location from one flood to another.