A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Globalization of the Amazon Soy and Beef Industries: Opportunities for Conservation

Abstract:  Amazon beef and soybean industries, the primary drivers of Amazon deforestation, are increasingly responsive to economic signals emanating from around the world, such as those associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, "mad cow disease") outbreaks and China's economic growth. The expanding role of these economic "teleconnections" (coupled phenomena that take place in distant places on the planet) led to a 3-year period (2002–2004) of historically high deforestation rates. But it also increases the potential for large-scale conservation in the region as markets and finance institutions demand better environmental and social performance of beef and soy producers. Cattle ranchers and soy farmers who have generally opposed ambitious government regulations that require forest reserves on private property are realizing that good land stewardship—including compliance with legislation—may increase their access to expanding domestic and international markets and to credit and lower the risk of "losing" their land to agrarian reform. The realization of this potential depends on the successful negotiation of social and environmental performance criteria and an associated system of certification that are acceptable to both the industries and civil society. The foot-and-mouth eradication system, in which geographic zones win permission to export beef, may provide an important model for the design of a low-cost, peer-enforced, socioenvironmental certification system that becomes the mechanism by which beef and soy industries gain access to markets outside the Amazon.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

Identifying socioeconomic and biophysical factors driving forest loss in protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are a commonly used strategy to confront forest conversion and biodiversity loss. Although determining drivers of forest loss is central to conservation success, understanding of them is limited by conventional modeling assumptions. We used random forest regression to evaluate potential drivers of deforestation in PAs in Mexico, while accounting for nonlinear relationships and higher order interactions underlying deforestation processes. Socioeconomic drivers (e.g., road density, human population density) and underlying biophysical conditions (e.g., precipitation, distance to water, elevation, slope) were stronger predictors of forest loss than PA characteristics, such as age, type, and management effectiveness. Within PA characteristics, variables reflecting collaborative and equitable management and PA size were the strongest predictors of forest loss, albeit with less explanatory power than socioeconomic and biophysical variables. In contrast to previously used methods, which typically have been based on the assumption of linear relationships, we found that the associations between most predictors and forest loss are nonlinear. Our results can inform decisions on the allocation of PA resources by strengthening management in PAs with the highest risk of deforestation and help preemptively protect key biodiversity areas that may be vulnerable to deforestation in the future.     

Are indigenous forest reserves sustainable? An analysis of present and future land-use trends in Bosawas,Nicaragua

SUMMARY

In recent years, indigenous tenure over forest lands has emerged as a means to conserve forests while recognizing indigenous rights. There is concern, however, that indigenous reserves may not be an appropriate policy tool for sustained forest conservation. Our research examined how recognition of indigenous common-property rights has controlled agricultural expansion and conserved forests in Bosawas Biosphere Reserve, Nicaragua. We used satellite imagery with empirical data gathered in the field on land-use institutions, population pressures, and land-use practices to compare whether indigenous communities under territorial management or public management are better able to (1) control the ‘fast threat’ of frontier expansion and (2) address the long-term ecological threats posed by indigenous land-use practices and institutional changes in the region. Our findings are that indigenous residents who share common-property rights over their territories are better able to control agricultural expansion than are indigenous residents living on public lands. With respect to the long-term threats to the region, a series of simulations of possible land-use pressures demonstrate that the enforcement of territorial boundaries and further development of indigenous forest management rules will prove crucial in determining land-use capacity and deforestation over the next 50 years.     

Growth,deforestation and the efficiency of the REDD mechanism

This paper assesses the long term impacts of an international transfer called the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism, which aims at preserving tropical forests of the recipient economy. This two-sector economy faces a dilemma between economic growth and deforestation. The rural sector can substitute reproducible capital for agricultural land whereas the manufacturing sector only requires capital. The model shows that the REDD mechanism has a non-monotonic effect on steady state welfares. For low transfer schemes, the agricultural output increases with the transfer even though less land is under cultivation. For high transfer schemes, the increase in the transfer may not offset the decrease in the agricultural output. The open-loop symmetric Nash equilibrium in a dynamic deforestation game predicts that redistributing the transfer among a finite number of producers is less efficient in reducing deforestation than in the social optimum.     

Effects of Reduced-Impact Logging on Fish Assemblages in Central Amazonia

Abstract: In Amazonia reduced‐impact logging, which is meant to reduce environmental disturbance by controlling stem‐fall directions and minimizing construction of access roads, has been applied to large areas containing thousands of streams. We investigated the effects of reduced‐impact logging on environmental variables and the composition of fish in forest streams in a commercial logging concession in central Amazonia, Amazonas State, Brazil. To evaluate short‐term effects, we sampled 11 streams before and after logging in one harvest area. We evaluated medium‐term effects by comparing streams in 11 harvest areas logged 1–8 years before the study with control streams in adjacent areas. Each sampling unit was a 50‐m stream section. The tetras Pyrrhulina brevis and Hemigrammus cf. pretoensis had higher abundances in plots logged ≥3 years before compared with plots logged <3 years before. The South American darter (Microcharacidium eleotrioides) was less abundant in logged plots than in control plots. In the short term, the overall fish composition did not differ two months before and immediately after reduced‐impact logging. Temperature and pH varied before and after logging, but those differences were compatible with normal seasonal variation. In the medium term, temperature and cover of logs were lower in logged plots. Differences in ordination scores on the basis of relative fish abundance between streams in control and logged areas changed with time since logging, mainly because some common species increased in abundance after logging. There was no evidence of species loss from the logging concession, but differences in log cover and ordination scores derived from relative abundance of fish species persisted even after 8 years. For Amazonian streams, reduced‐impact logging appears to be a viable alternative to clear‐cut practices, which severely affect aquatic communities. Nevertheless, detailed studies are necessary to evaluated subtle long‐term effects.     

Sustainable development and participatory practices in community forestry: the case of FUNDECOR in Costa Rica

This paper studies the emergence of one particular ‘new’ environmental policy instrument: disclosure of emission and pollution data. Disclosure is part of a relatively new sub‐set of regulatory measures, based on monitoring, transparency, citizen‐empowerment and accountability. It originated in the United States but has recently attracted international attention. The attractiveness of disclosure is obvious; it promises environmental improvement combined with strengthened environmental democracy and community empowerment. By analysing the experiences in the US, and the developments in the Netherlands, this paper seeks to assess the functioning and effectiveness of disclosure. The available empirical evidence suggests that disclosure has a positive impact on the environmental performance of industrial facilities as well as a democratising effect. It is argued that Dutch policy makers wrongfully assume that disclosure cannot work in the Netherlands. The consequence is that citizens are provided with little specific information that cannot be used to put pressure on polluters.     

土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展

随着社会的不断进步和人口的迅速膨胀,土地利用/覆被变化对水文过程产生了重大影响,其研究已经成为国际热点问题和前沿领域。论文首先分析了LUCC水文效应的研究方法,然后从土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力方面:造林与毁林、城市化过程与农业开发活动以及水土保持等,概述了LUCC水文效应的研究进展。综合分析表明:关于城市化过程的水文影响研究,一般认为,在城市化快速发展的驱动下,不透水面积大量增加,改变了水量平衡状况,造成入渗减少,洪峰流量增大,但不同地区城市化发展程度的不同使得水文效应的表现也不相同;水土保持水文效应的研究一般认为,水土保持通过植树造林、种草、修建梯田、淤地坝等措施,使得区域/流域下垫面覆盖状况发生了很大的改变,造成年径流和洪峰流量减少,而使入渗和枯季径流增加,但因地理位置和气象条件等方面的差异,不同地区水土保持产生的水文影响也有所差别;造林与毁林、农业开发活动对水文过程的影响则因研究尺度、区域位置、气象条件、研究对象等因素的影响出现了较大的差异。因此,需考虑多方面因素的影响,正确评价土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应,为水土资源的合理配置和可持续利用提供科学依据。