长兴入太湖河网水文变化特征与水质时空差异

以长兴县入太湖的泗安塘-合溪-乌溪河网为研究对象,将入湖河网划分为水源区、河网区、西苕溪区和入湖区,于2018年8月和2019年1月分别对长兴县入太湖河网丰水期和枯水期的水质状况进行了调查,采用空间聚类法、水质标识指数对水质的时空分布进行评价。结果表明,长兴入太湖河网不同片区氨氮（NH₃-N）和总氮（TN）的质量浓度平均值呈现枯水期较丰水期高的特征,而高锰酸盐指数（COD_Mn）和总磷（TP）则呈现丰水期较枯水期高的特征。空间聚类分析结果表明,水质指标分布具有明显的空间差异性,呈现水源区>西苕溪区>河网区>入湖区的分布特征,入湖区是污染物聚集的主要区域。综合水质标识指数分析结果表明,长兴入太湖河网主要以Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类水为主;单因子水质标识指数分析结果表明,溶解氧（DO）、COD_Mn、NH₃-N、TP指标均优于Ⅲ类水标准,TN是入太湖河网的特征污染物,且在丰水期和枯水期质量浓度平均值分别达到2.24,3.49 mg/L。因此,进一步削减氮污染是缓解其河网富营养化的关键。     

邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯的生殖毒性及其作用机制

为评价邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯在体内的慢性毒性,以1000mg/kg、500mg/kg、250mg/kg剂量连续染毒大鼠6周、20周.结果表明:邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯能引起雄鼠睾丸(p＜0.01)、附睾和前列腺重量的减少(p＜0.05)和肝脏肿大(p＜0.01),改变睾丸(p＜0.01)、前列腺(p＜0.05)、肝脏(p＜0.01)的组织病理学,尤其引起睾丸曲细精管萎缩、变性,各级生精细胞减少,生精上皮内生精细胞和Sertoli细胞结构明显紊乱,细胞间连接结构消失.降低血清中γ-G(p＜0.01)、ALP(p＜0.05)活性、睾酮水平(p＜0.01),增加LDH活性(p＜0.01)和FSH水平(p＜0.01),呈一定的量-效和时-效关系.结合组织病理和性激素及酶活性的改变,揭示该化合物睾丸毒性的靶细胞是支持细胞,其次是生精细胞,作用的靶点是细胞内的线粒体.邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯对雌鼠的损害只引起子宫的增大和轻微炎症表现及血清ALP酶活性的降低(p＜0.05).充分说明了邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯对动物的干扰有明显的性别差异,对雄性的危害要远远大于对雌性的损害.     

企业金融化与绿色转型研究：机制识别与政策优化

实体企业金融化往往会对其经营管理决策产生重大影响。本文基于实体上市企业年报和财务数据（2007—2020年）,构建其绿色转型指标,进而从理论和实证两个方面确证了金融化对绿色转型的影响与机制问题。实证结果表明,企业金融化会对其绿色转型产生显著的负面冲击,其中短期金融化行为的影响更为明显;特别地,这一冲击对重污染企业、战略性新兴企业绿色转型的影响更为显著。通过机制识别,研究发现上述冲击影响主要通过恶化财务状况、提升企业风险并降低企业预期等渠道导致企业绿色转型水平下降。进一步地,通过政策优化（如金融综合改革试验区制度）支持,上述负面效应将被显著削弱,这也说明金融体制机制的优化是降低企业金融化负面效应,提升其转型升级动力和意愿的重要路径。     

中俄跨界水体水质联合监测数据可比性研究

中俄跨界水体水质联合监测已经连续开展了11 a,积累了大量的监测数据。笔者针对双方实际监测数据,选用相关性分析和t检验等统计学方法,分析了中俄双方联合监测数据可比性。研究结果表明:p H、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数和化学需氧量的相对偏差统计容许限基本满足中国标准建议值;氨氮和铁2个指标高于中国标准建议值;锰的数据差异最大。建议中俄双方针对溶解氧使用便携式溶解氧仪进行原位监测;重点对氨氮、铁和锰开展技术交流,设计相关实验,从样品采集、保存、运输、前处理和实验室分析等各环节查找双方差异。     

经济增长和环境规制对雾霾的区际影响差异

为探究不同省级区域雾霾、经济增长和环境规制之间的空间关联效应,本文提出针对雾霾的引力模型空间权重矩阵,并利用该矩阵建立了空间杜宾模型,分别对全国、西部、中部和东部省区的面板数据进行了空间计量检验。实证结果显示:全国雾霾的莫兰指数值显著,且取值介于0.367—0.460之间;雾霾"重心"呈现先向东南再向西北移动的趋势,移动距离为76 557 m;雾霾的莫兰指数值为东部省区最大,西部省区最小,中部省区介于二者之间。全国的雾霾与经济增长之间呈显著的"U"型曲线,而西部、中部和东部省区则呈倒"U"型曲线,其中中部省区的曲线最为陡峭,西部省区次之,东部省区最为平缓。环境规制每增加1%,只有西部和东部的雾霾相应减少,且各自相应下降0.009和0.010个百分点。西部和东部经济增长的溢出效应均显著,而环境规制的溢出效应不显著。研究结果表明:(1)雾霾在空间上表现出集聚的特点,全国和三个区域的雾霾都存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,这种空间依赖性在时间维度上大致呈加强的趋势;雾霾的空间相关性表现为东部省区最强,西部省区紧随其后,中部省区最低。(2)西部和东部省区部分省市还未过拐点,全国意义上的环境库茨涅兹假说是不存在的,或者是至少还未出现。(3)西部和东部环境规制效果较为理想,而中部省区的环境规制效果不佳;从全国总体来看,当前的环境规制整体上对雾霾并未起到有效的抑制作用。(4)东西部省区和中部省区经济增长对雾霾溢出效应分别表现为正向和反向;环境规制对雾霾的溢出效应并不显著。建议加强对雾霾的区域协同治理,重点推进西部和东部省区经济结构的转型升级,调整和完善西部、中部和东部省区的环境规制政策。     

资源型城市能耗增长因素分解及差异分析

本文以95个有代表性的资源型城市2004—2013年的数据为样本,重点关注城市经济发展、人口增长和空间扩张几个方面,考虑能耗强度、经济规模、人口密度、辖区面积四个因素,利用LMDI法对资源型城市的能耗增长进行因素分解,并针对不同区位、不同规模与不同发展阶段三种情况分别进行资源型城市能耗增长影响因素的差异分析。得出了研究结论:总体来看,对资源型城市能耗增长影响较大的因素是能耗强度与经济规模,其中能耗强度下降对能耗增长有明显的抑制作用,经济规模扩大对能耗增长有明显的推动作用,但能耗强度下降的抑制作用不足以抵减经济规模扩大的推动作用,导致能耗总量增加。人口密度增加和辖区面积扩大对城市能耗增长的贡献率较小,都只是微弱的推动作用。单个城市能耗增长的因素分解结果与总体情况较为一致,但不同城市之间存在差异。分区位看,越是落后地区,能耗强度下降对能耗增长的抑制作用以及经济规模扩大对能耗的拉动作用越强;分规模看,小城市的落后产能改进空间还没有得到充分利用;分资源开发阶段看,衰退型城市落后产能改进成效突出但能源利用效率依然较低,成熟型城市对落后产能改进空间的利用不足。最后有针对性地提出了相关政策建议:优化产业结构,转变经济增长方式,实现资源型城市从"粗放型增长"到"集约型发展"的转变;大力发展新能源,提高能源利用效率;对不同类型的资源型城市有针对性地实施节能降耗的分类指导;强化宣传教育,有效提高企业和居民的节能降耗意识。     

Characterizing Runoff and Water Yield for Headwater Catchments in the Southern Sierra Nevada

In a Mediterranean climate where much of the precipitation falls during winter, snowpacks serve as the primary source of dry season runoff. Increased warming has led to significant changes in hydrology of the western United States. An important question in this context is how to best manage forested catchments for water and other ecosystem services? Answering this basic question requires detailed understanding of hydrologic functioning of these catchments. Here, we depict the differences in hydrologic response of 10 catchments. Size of the study catchments ranges from 50 to 475 ha, and they span between 1,782 and 2,373 m elevation in the rain‐snow transitional zone. Mean annual streamflow ranged from 281 to 408 mm in the low elevation Providence and 436 to 656 mm in the high elevation Bull catchments, resulting in a 49 mm streamflow increase per 100 m (R² = 0.79) elevation gain, despite similar precipitation across the 10 catchments. Although high elevation Bull catchments received significantly more precipitation as snow and thus experienced a delayed melt, this increase in streamflow with elevation was mainly due to a reduction in evapotranspiration (ET) with elevation (45 mm/100 m, R² = 0.65). The reduction in ET was attributed to decline in vegetation density, growing season, and atmospheric demand with increasing elevation. These findings suggest changes in streamflow in response to climate warming may likely depend on how vegetation responds to those changes in climate.     

公共建筑人群疏散流线负荷的拓扑解析模型研究*

为寻找公共建筑人群疏散极端负荷流线,构建疏散流线负荷的拓扑解析模型。首先,通过分析建筑空间布局的构成要素,引入移动空间、障碍空间、移动节点等概念,构建公共建筑疏散空间的拓扑网络;其次,定义节点最迟疏散结束时刻、节点最早疏散开始时刻等时间参数,以某时刻作为初始状态,计算疏散网络节点时差,构建极端负荷流线的拓扑解析模型,探析公共建筑人群疏散流线拥堵特征;最后,采用Agent技术对某会展中心人群疏散流线负荷模型进行仿真分析。研究结果表明:流线的拓扑网络节点总时差反映了流线负荷分布特征,人群疏散的极端负荷流线符合拓扑解析模型结果,能为公共建筑人群疏散方案的制定提供理论依据。     

隧道盾构下穿车站出入口数值仿真对比研究

运用基于有限单元法的Ansys软件和基于有限差分法的Flac3D软件作为基本工具,选用满足Drucker-Prager(D-P)屈服准则和Mohr-Coulomb(M-C)屈服准则的材料弹塑性模型,对某隧道盾构下穿近距离既有地铁出入口人行通道的施工过程进行数值仿真分析;得出其地层变位规律及对结构内力和变形产生的影响;将所得计算数值与实测数据进行对比研究,其结果相当吻合;同时对不同软件及不同屈服准则的选用所引起的计算结果的差异进行分析比较,所得规律可为类似工程的设计与施工以及相关软件计算结果的使用提供依据和支持。     

The change of European landscapes: human-nature relationships, public attitudes towards rewilding, and the implications for landscape management in Switzerland

The rewilding of landscapes is one of the most important and intensively discussed landscape changes occurring in Switzerland, as the need for agricultural and forest land is decreasing. To ensure that decisions concerning future landscape management will be supported by the public, it is crucial to take public opinion into account. Hence the present study aims to assess the public attitudes towards nature and "rewilding" processes. In order to analyze these attitudes, we sent a standardized questionnaire to 4000 randomly selected households throughout Switzerland. A cluster analysis led to a typology with four different types of human-nature relationship ("nature lovers", "nature sympathizers", "nature-connected users" and "nature controllers") that each characterize a particular attitude towards nature. These human-nature relationship types differ in their attitudes towards rewilding as well, allowing a rough classification of the sample into wilderness opponents (51.1%) and wilderness proponents (49.9%). However both groups agree with regard to their opinion concerning the rules and regulations that should apply in future wilderness areas. The parallels of the human-nature relationship typology of this survey with other typologies, and the implications for further research are discussed. We can conclude that, due to the differences concerning the attitudes towards wilderness between the human-nature relationship types, between the rural and urban dwellers, and between the language regions, a uniform strategy for the designation and management of wilderness areas in Switzerland is not possible. We recommend that, when managing landscape change, all stakeholders are included in a participatory process and we advise a thorough assessment of the attitudes of the involved persons towards nature and rewilding at the start of such processes. Such an assessment would facilitate the identification of well-defined target groups allowing specific interventions and management actions customized to the needs and characteristics of each of these groups. In addition we see the commonalities between wilderness opponents and wilderness proponents concerning the rules in wilderness areas as an ideal starting point for a successful participatory process.