HAN阻隔防爆模型研究

通过合理简化,利用多方气体状态方程,分别建立油品储运容器内可燃混合气体定容爆炸模型和装设阻隔防爆材料的油品储运容器内可燃混合气体爆炸模型,获得了阻隔防爆性能测试装置的燃爆容器抗爆设计限值,以及其在HAN阻隔防爆测试中燃爆容器试爆压力量级的控制下限值,同时,还给出HAN工程应用中容器留空率的计算方法,具有实际指导意义。     

Modelling individual preferences for environmental policy drivers: Empirical evidence of Italian lifestyle changes using a latent class approach

Degraded air quality severely affects the health of citizens worldwide. The design of effective policies requires exploring public preferences for environmental and air quality policy instruments. Within the EC-FP7 SEFIRA project, using a choice experiment that stresses the trade-offs between attributes, this study investigates public preferences for environmental policy drivers in Italy. The main objective is to investigate the role played by selected policy drivers in determining policy preferences, complemented by elasticity and willingness to pay estimations. Preference heterogeneity and the role of socio-economic and attitudinal variables are explored with a latent class model over 2400 respondents sampled across Italy. The results allow identifying the different role played by the policy drivers across the classes. It emerged that most of the respondents (43%) are particularly sensitive to the cost components (cost sensitive respondents). The remaining respondents instead show an important sensitivity towards personal engagement in term of changes in the mobility and eating habits (lifestyle-change sensitive respondents). However, while 29% of them perceive these habits’ changes as negatively impacting on the personal utility, the other 28% of respondents translate the potential changes in the habitual behaviour of driving and eating as environmental and health benefits. Based on the modelling results, potential policies are simulated reporting respondents’ reaction to selected scenarios. It shows the crucial role played by reduction of premature deaths due to atmospheric pollution and measure cost.     

The Role of Abatement Costs in GHG Permit Allocations: A Global Stabilization Scenario Analysis

Our objective is to propose permit allocation schemes that lead to a fair distribution of the net abatement cost among regions in a global greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization scenario. We use a detailed technology-based energy model, World-MARKAL, to determine efficient abatement decisions, and to calculate the regional gross abatement costs (before permit allocation and trading). The net abatement costs are then calculated and used for different permit allocation schemes.     

市场转型对中国环境治理结构的影响——国家污染物减排指标的分配机制研究

国家统计局数据显示,2006年我国节能减排任务均远未实现国家"十一五"规划开局之年的目标,特别是主要污染物排放总量不降反升.本文在分析了中国环境治理体系和国家"十一五"规划主要污染物减排指标分配机制的基础上,研究了市场转型对中国环境治理结构的影响.中国的市场转型可以抽象为以"分权让利"、"市场化"和"工业化"为主要特征的结构演进过程.文中提出,中国市场转型过程对环境治理结构造成了重大影响,而环境治理的各项措施反过来也应与市场转型相适应.当前中国主要污染物减排指标没有实现达标的重要原因是国家污染物减排指标的分配机制无法适应我国市场转型的要求.为此,本文提出一系列国家主要污染物减排指标分配机制的政策建议.     

城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价

从城市生态安全的基本内涵出发,根据压力(pressure)-状态(state)-响应(response)模型,从生态系统压力、生态系统状况、生态系统响应3方面构建一个4层次的城市生态安全评价指标体系,运用灰色系统理论,构建了城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价模型,并结合实例进行计算。评价结果与实际情况基本相符,表明该模型能有效地利用评价指标的信息,所给出的综合评价值既能用于描述所评价城市的生态安全状况,亦可对不同城市的生态安全状况进行比较,对更加科学合理地评价城市生态安全状况具有参考价值。     

Integrated coastal management: top-down vs. community-based approaches

In this paper, a dynamic model is developed in which coastal quality can be improved, restored, or maintained by two distinct user groups; this is done by identifying a context that ensures an increase (or a greater increase) in coastal quality in terms of specific features that characterise the user groups. The results demonstrate that integrated coastal management is always better than non-integrated management. Moreover, when there is a low degree of interest in maintaining the coastal use over time, only integrated community-based (CB) coastal management will increase the coastal quality. Even when the interest in maintaining the coastal use over time is high, an integrated CB approach is preferred if the willingness to pay for coastal improvements is great and the marginal inefficiency of investments in coastal improvements is low, because the coastal quality improves to a greater extent; if not, only an integrated top-down (TD) approach to coastal management will increase the coastal quality. These results suggest that developing countries should always adopt a CB approach; in contrast, developed countries should adopt a CB approach where local stakeholders attach direct values to the coastal quality, and adopt a TD approach where the general population attaches indirect (option or existence) values to coastal quality.     

Coupling upland watershed and downstream waterbody hydrodynamic and water quality models (SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2) for better water resources management in complex river basins

Effective water resources management programs have always incorporated detailed analyses of hydrological and water quality processes in the upland watershed and downstream waterbody. We have integrated two powerful hydrological and water quality models (SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2) to simulate the combined processes of water quantity and quality both in the upland watershed and downstream waterbody. Whereas the SWAT model outputs water quality variables in its entirety, the CE-QUAL-W2 model requires inputs in various pools of organic matter contents. An intermediate program was developed to extract outputs from SWAT at required subbasin and reach outlets and converts them into acceptable CE-QUAL-W2 inputs. The CE-QUAL-W2 model was later calibrated for various hydrodynamic and water quality simulations in the Cedar Creek Reservoir, TX, USA. The results indicate that the two models are compatible and can be used to assess and manage water resources in complex watersheds comprised of upland watershed and downstream waterbodies.     

Uncovering the Connections Among Sustainability, Governance and GDP

This paper examines the connections among sustainability, governance and GDP, using the data from 123 countries. Sustainability is found to be related with GDP in two contradictory ways. On the one hand, growth in GDP strengthens a nation＇s ability to maintain favorable environmental conditions into the future. On the other hand, GDP growth is built on more consumption of natural resources, and therefore generates a larger ＂foot-print＂ on the Earth. Governance plays a key role in sustainable development. However, it is not helping to reduce our footprint on the Earth. In fact, good governance is linked to a larger footprint. This reflects our materialist value and human impulse. When a society prefers the comfort and wellbeing of human beings to the welfare of its environment, democratic governance might be used as an effective tool against nature.     

The Iowa Graduated Driver Licensing program: effectiveness in reducing crashes of teenage drivers

PROBLEM: Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs vary in the United States in terms of implementation and restrictions. The State of Iowa's GDL program is assessed for its effectiveness in reducing crashes among teenage drivers. METHOD: Time series analysis was used to evaluate police documented crashes involving 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers over a 10 year period, with an intervention identified at the point of GDL implementation. RESULTS: After controlling for seasonal trends and auto-correlative effects, a significant reduction in the crash rate of and 16- and 17-year-old drivers was observed due to the GDL implementation. However, there were no significant reductions in crash rates for 18-year-old drivers. DISCUSSION: The analyses suggest that the Iowa GDL program is effective in reducing the crash rates of 16- and 17-year-old drivers but the effects do not sustain for 18-year-old drivers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that the program appears to be working, however further analysis is needed to determine what factors are preventing lasting effects for these teenage drivers.     

可持续发展环境约束条件下的水资源最优配置及实证研究

在相关理论分析和Weber模型的基础上。拓展建立了面向水资源可持续发展的水资源最优配置模型。引入了基于政府管制的影响作用、沿河流域的水用户的实际消耗水量、实际排放水量、河流中可供使用水量及所排放污水水质水平等5个变量函数．通过政府管制下的水质和水量的河道内流量需求等环境约束条件．确保水资源利用始终满足最小基流水量。通过求量优解，计算得出在环境约束下达到最优配置时各个变量函数与对下游地区外部性之间的相关性。接着。本文对陕北黄土高原沿Y河的35家企业进行了实际调查．收集了2个年度共8个季度的观测值，应用计量经济Pand Data模型。对35个节点、8个季度的共280个数据作为混合样本进行经济计量分析。验证了相关结论。最后。还提出一些制定环境约束条件以及水用户间建立水资源环境生态补偿金机制等政策建议。