Fuzzy Logic Model to Estimate Seasonal Pseudo Steady State Chlorophyll-A Concentrations in Reservoirs

A fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate pseudo steady state chlorophyll-a concentrations in a very large and deep dam reservoir, namely Keban Dam Reservoir, which is also highly spatial and temporal variable. The estimation power of the developed fuzzy logic model was tested by comparing its performance with that from the classical multiple regression model. The data include chlorophyll-a concentrations in Keban lake as a response variable, as well as several water quality variables such as PO₄ phosphorus, NO₃ nitrogen, alkalinity, suspended solids concentration, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen concentration and Secchi depth as independent environmental variables. Because of the complex nature of the studied water body, as well as non-significant functional relationships among the water quality variables to the chlorophyll-a concentration, an initial analysis is conducted to select the most important variables that can be used in estimating the chlorophyll-a concentrations within the studied water body. Following the outcomes from this initial analysis, the fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate the chlorophyll-a concentrations and the advantages of this new model is demonstrated in model fitting over the traditional multiple regression method.     

How to dissolve fixed‐pie bias in negotiation? Social antecedents and the mediating effect of mental‐model adjustment

Fixed‐pie bias, defined as the erroneous belief that the other negotiation party's interest is directly opposite to one's own, has been a consistent hurdle that negotiators must overcome in their efforts to achieve optimal negotiation outcomes. In this study, we explore the underlying cognitive mechanism and the social antecedents of fixed‐pie bias reduction in negotiation. Using data from a negotiation simulation with 256 participants, we found that mental‐model adjustments made by negotiators could effectively decrease fixed‐pie bias. More interestingly, we also found that negotiators were less likely to reduce fixed‐pie bias when negotiating with an in‐group member than with an out‐group member but only under a high accountability condition. Finally, we found that mental‐model adjustment mediated the effects of the aforementioned social antecedents (in‐groupness and accountability) on reduced fixed‐pie bias. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洁净室空气洁净度评价的模糊模式识别方法

洁净室空气洁净程度的高低属于模糊概念,将各评价样本实测指标矩阵转变为相对隶属度矩阵,同时将各标准模式指标标准值矩阵转变为指标准相对隶属度矩阵,以全体样本对于各标准模式间的加权广义距离平方和最小建立目标函数,经构造拉格朗日函数,建立了洁净室空气洁净度评价的模糊模式识别模型。斗净室洁净程度评价是一个多目标评价问题,提出了确定指标权重的主、客观结合法,即先建立求解各指标权重的迭代模型并求出指标权重的初始值,然后根据评价的经验,采用重要性语气算子调整各指标的相对隶属度,对初始值进行调整,归一化后得到合理的指标权重值,经计算实例验证,本建立的模式识别方法物理意义明确,评价结果符合实际。     

改进的模糊综合评价法在太湖水质类别判定中的应用

水质判别是一个多参数多级别的模糊概念，基础的模糊综合评价法存在局限性，对基础模糊数学法中隶属度函数及最大隶属度原则进行改进，建立一种改进的模糊综合评价法。以太湖流域水质判别为实例验证了此方法比传统的方法更有效，且适合在太湖流域应用。     

基于变异系数法的模糊数学模型在城市生态系统健康评价中的应用

从城市生态系统的健康内涵出发,选取活力、组织结构、恢复力、生态系统服务功能和人群健康状况构建城市生态系统健康评价指标体系,采用基于变异系数的赋权法确定指标权重,运用模糊数学方法对2007—2011年兰州市城市生态系统健康进行评价分析。明确兰州市生态系统健康状况及制约因子,为兰州市城市生态建设及可持续发展提供参考。     

模糊数学在引黄水库水质评价中的应用研究

通过构建模糊数学模型评价济南某引黄水库的进水口和出水口的水质,评价结果发现该引黄水库进水口和出水口分别属于Ⅳ和I类水;而根据单因子评价方法,进水口和出水口水质均属于V类,主要是由于化学需氧量超标导致。模糊数学评价法用隶属度来描绘模糊的水质分级界限,避免了传统水质分级不连续的缺陷,避免了在单因子评价中因某项参数超标而将水质定类的缺点,得到了较为客观的评价。     

基于模糊神经网络的深井底板突水判别研究

通过分析深井底板突水因素的影响作用,建立各影响因素的层次分析结构模型,运用层次分析法计算各影响因素的权重并进行排序,进而选出深井底板突水的主控因素。在该基础上,建立隶属度和隶属函数实现各因素的归一,构建基于模糊神经网络的深井底板突水判别模型,选择合适的网络结构参数以改善神经网络的缺点,并选取样本训练网络,以现场实例为验证样本,以突水等级作为输出结果,该判别表明基本符合工程实践。     

模糊支持向量机在滑坡危险性评价中的应用

为了将模糊支持向量机应用于滑坡灾害危险性评价工作,并进行验证,进行了研究区滑坡现状的调查,评价指标的选取,隶属函数的确定和基于FSVM的滑坡灾害危险性评价.选取了高程指标、坡度指标、岩土体指标、地表湿度指标及植被覆盖指标等5个指标作为滑坡灾害危险性评价指标,最后以莆田市为例,结合Rs和GIS技术,进行了滑坡危险性评价的研究.评价结果与实地验证和莆田市国土局提供的地质灾害现状图基本吻合.     

模糊物元识别模型在巢湖水体富营养化评价中的应用研究

选取TN、TP、Chl-a、COD、BOD5、DO和SD等7项指标,应用模糊物元识别模型对2000~2007年巢湖的12个水质监测点的富营养化等级进行了模糊识别。通过与巢湖同期水质浓度变化及其分布区域进行对比分析,验证了模糊物元识别模型在巢湖水体富营养化评价中的适用性。巢湖富营养化评价结果表明,2000~2007年富营养化呈逐年加重的趋势,据采样点模糊物元计算结果得知西巢湖(1#~6#)的富营养化状况比东巢湖(7#~12#)更严重,西巢湖贴近度最高值为0.9974,接近极富营养状态,而东巢湖的最高值仅为0.5866。从年际变化上看,2000~2007年东巢湖富营养化状况变化不大,营养状态级处在较低的水平,而西巢湖的富营养状况变化则较大,营养状态级则处在较高水平。     

模糊综合评判法预测煤与瓦斯突出强度的研究

依据统计数据和专家经验,应用层次分析法确定各影响因素对突出强度的贡献度权重,采用定性数据定量化方法确定各因素的隶属度,采用二级模糊综合评判方法和"加权平均型"评判数学模型,建立了煤与瓦斯突出强度预测模糊综合评判方法,实现了煤与瓦斯突出强度的定量预测.