Rapid humanitarian assessments and rationality: a value-of-information study from Iraq, 2003-04

Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts.     

基于三角模糊数的民航企业“管理”安全综合评价模型研究

在对我国民航企业安全管理的现状和常用的安全评价方法进行分析的基础上,提出并建立了民航企业"管理"安全模糊综合评价模型。首先,从组织管理、风险管理、安全保证、安全促进4个方面对民航企业安全管理的内容和特点进行分析,在此基础上建立民航企业"管理"安全评价指标体系;然后,根据三角模糊数理论和模糊综合评价理论建立民航企业"管理"安全模糊综合评价模型;通过上述指标体系和评价模型从而达到对民航企业"管理"安全进行评价的目的。最后,给出了一个应用实例,其评价结果表明:该模型具有很强的实用性和借鉴价值。     

昆明市城中村火灾事故统计分析

城中村是中国快速城市化进程中的一个普遍现象,由于缺乏统一规划和专门管理,城中村的高火灾风险成为当前面临的重要问题并得到社会各界关注.为获得昆明市城中村火灾的特点和规律,从2004-2006年昆明市火灾统计记录中区分出城中村和非城中村火灾数据,在此基础上采用Bayes统计分析城中村不同用途建筑物的火灾发生概率及概率比例.结果表明,相比城中村其他用途的建筑,居住用房火灾概率较低,而具有生产和加工性质的行业作坊、易燃易爆场所和娱乐场所的火灾概率较高,分别是居住用房的48倍、26倍和18倍.进一步采用火灾原因-场所关联对比分析了城中村和非城中村火灾的特点.从火灾发生场所看,与非城中村相比,城中村居住场所火灾发生比例高7.2%,路边可燃物高88.8%,木材、家具加工厂高184.8%,易燃易爆场所高521.4%; 从火灾原因看,城中村电气、电线短路致灾比例高1 2%,限制行为能力人(小孩和精神病人)致灾比例高65 1%,燃放烟花爆竹致灾比例高3.5%,吸烟致灾比例高50.9%,违章操作致灾比例高59.0%.这些差异基本上反映了城中村的主要外在特征,这些外在特征经城中村实地调研得到证实.     

高速公路运营安全性评价

系统研究国内外道路运营安全评价先进技术,认为各种安全评价方法有其优缺点,单一方法使用时,难以得到全面、可靠的评价结果。在此基础上,结合我国高速公路运营状况,提出了运用速度协调性分析、事故调查与分析、设计符合性以及运营安全评价清单进行评价的高速公路运营综合安全评价方法。该方法能最大程度地发现事故隐患、预防事故的发生或减轻事故的严重程度。并运用该方法对某改建高速公路进行了运营安全评价,指出了该拟改建高速公路两处事故多发路段和3方面的安全隐患,证实了综合安全评价方法的有效性。     

渤海海域生态系统服务功能价值评估

客观评估海洋生态系统服务功能价值。对于生态环境保护以及海洋综合管理具有重要意义。以海洋生态系统服务功能分类为基础．构建了食品生产、提供基因资源、氧气生产和气候调节、废弃物处理、生物控制、休闲娱乐、科研文化、初级生产、物种多样性维持等九项服务功能价值的评估方法。以渤海为研究区域．对上述九项生态系统服务功能价值进行了定量评价。结果表明。渤海海域九项生态系统服务功能的价值为81703亿元．相当于近期环渤海地区生产总值的1．73倍．其中直接使用价值为12873亿元，间接使用价值68830亿元．间接使用价值远大于直接使用价值；渤海海域生态系统服务价值，以支持功能价值为主，占生态系统服务功能总价值的74．68％。此外．认为海洋生态系统服务功能分类和价值评价方法有待进一步完善．渤海海域生态系统服务功能价值的评估值与实际有偏差。     

Air quality and deposition of trace elements in Didouche Mourad, Algeria

Total suspended particulate matter and deposition fluxes of particles were investigated in the town of Didouche Mourad which is located 13 km north of Constantine. Samples of air particulate matter were collected at one site located in the heart of the town and situated 3 km north of a cement plant. Samples were collected from 2 November 2002 to 28 April 2003 every 3 days using a high volume air sampler. Sampling intervals were 24 h in all cases. During the same period, samples of dust fallout were collected at the same site. Samples were collected at 30-day intervals. Lead, chromium, manganese, nickel, copper, cobalt and cadmium deposition fluxes were measured and both the soluble and insoluble fractions were determined. Furthermore, the information gathered by this study was correlated with the corresponding hourly weather data provided by a weather station installed at the study station. The possible sources for dust and trace metals were analyzed by comparing average contributions of wind aspects to the concentrations and depositions of mass and chemical species with the average frequencies of wind direction. The mean concentration was 300 μg/m³. The average dust deposition rate through the period of study was 221 mg/(m².day). Results indicate that anthropogenic sources contribute greatly to trace elements. An exposure assessment to the heavy metals taking into account the inhalation route and soil dust ingestion was carried out and allowed direct comparison of trace metal intakes via these routes.     

丁苯橡胶生产过程中不稳定因素分析及对策

针对丁二烯自聚物闪燃爆炸和后处理胶粒塑化着火的形成机理、形成条件、影响因素进行了分析,并提出了防范措施和应急处理办法。     

火力发电厂安全现状评价模式探讨

以火电厂现状评价为例,探索火力发电厂安全现状评价模式。     

Challenges in assessing the toxic effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to marine organisms: a case study on the acute toxicity of pyrene to the European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.)

The acute toxicity (96 h) of pyrene (PY) to European seabass (Dicentrachus labrax) juveniles assessed in a semi-static bioassay (SSB) with medium renewal at each 12 h, and in a static bioassay (SB) without medium renewal was compared in laboratorial conditions (water PY concentrations: 0.07-10 mg L⁻¹). Main findings in the SSB that assessed mainly the toxicity of PY and its metabolites were: increased levels of bile PY metabolites in good agreement with the profile of lipid peroxidation levels (LPO) in exposed fish relating PY exposure and oxidative damage; increased levels of PY-type compounds in the brain indicating their ability to cross the blood-brain barrier; increased levels of these substances in liver and muscle which are edible tissues for humans thus raising concern on potential adverse effects on consumers of fish from PY contaminated areas; a significant inhibition of glutathione S-transferase activity suggesting its involvement in PY detoxication as toxicant scavenger; finally, an almost complete impairment of the swimming velocity at all the PY concentrations linking sub-individual to higher population level effects. In the SB, where the overall toxicity of PY, its metabolites and environmental degradation products was evaluated, 19% and 79% of PY decay in test media was found at 12 and 96 h, respectively. In general, the effects were similar to those of SSB but with significant effects being induced at higher PY concentrations indicating that the parental compound is more toxic than its environmental degradation products. The other main differences relatively to the SSB were: increased levels of PY-type substances in the liver suggesting more accumulation in this organ. Therefore, these findings highlight the need of carefully considering experimental design options when assessing the toxicity of readily degradable substances to marine fish, and stress the importance of taking into consideration the toxicity of environmental degradation products in addition to toxic effects of the parental substance and its metabolites for marine ecological risk assessment.