Variability in Population Abundance and the Classification of Extinction Risk

Abstract: Classifying species according to their risk of extinction is a common practice and underpins much conservation activity. The reliability of such classifications rests on the accuracy of threat categorizations, but very little is known about the magnitude and types of errors that might be expected. The process of risk classification involves combining information from many sources, and understanding the quality of each source is critical to evaluating the overall status of the species. One common criterion used to classify extinction risk is a decline in abundance. Because abundance is a direct measure of conservation status, counts of individuals are generally the preferred method of evaluating whether populations are declining. Using the thresholds from criterion A of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (critically endangered, decline in abundance of >80% over 10 years or 3 generations; endangered, decline in abundance of 50–80%; vulnerable, decline in abundance of 30–50%; least concern or near threatened, decline in abundance of 0–30%), we assessed 3 methods used to detect declines solely from estimates of abundance: use of just 2 estimates of abundance; use of linear regression on a time series of abundance; and use of state‐space models on a time series of abundance. We generated simulation data from empirical estimates of the typical variability in abundance and assessed the 3 methods for classification errors. The estimates of the proportion of falsely detected declines for linear regression and the state‐space models were low (maximum 3–14%), but 33–75% of small declines (30–50% over 15 years) were not detected. Ignoring uncertainty in estimates of abundance (with just 2 estimates of abundance) allowed more power to detect small declines (95%), but there was a high percentage (50%) of false detections. For all 3 methods, the proportion of declines estimated to be >80% was higher than the true proportion. Use of abundance data to detect species at risk of extinction may either fail to detect initial declines in abundance or have a high error rate.     

Changing governance structures and the environment: economy–environment relations at the local and regional scales

Two substantive bodies of research have developed in recent years, both of which have a focus upon local and regional scales. First, there has been the development of work on changing forms of local and regional governance. This has drawn on a range of theoretical perspectives, including notions of institutional capacity, urban regime theory and neo-regulationalist accounts. Second, a body of research has developed into environmental policy and sustainable development, but this has largely been normative and undertheorized. While these two bodies of literature have developed separately, we believe there is merit in bringing the insights from each together. A focus on local environmental policy helps to broaden our understanding of local governance and problems of after-Fordist regulation. Such a project also helps to illuminate problems in implementing policy on the environment and sustainability. The examination of changing local and regional forms of governance allows us to identify new state spaces, which may provide opportunities for the strategic insertion of environmental objectives into economic development policies. This paper seeks to theorize such environment–economy relations and emerging multi-scalar forms of environmental governance, drawing upon case study research work in six UK local authority areas. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

低压电器产品常见的湿热试验

介绍低压电器产品常见的湿热试验和相应试验参数,从而认识低压电器元器件和低压成套设备两大类产品湿热试验项目通常考核目的和意义,对低压电器实际检测的了解有更进一步的帮助。     

基于SPAMS探究南京市秋季大气中含草酸重金属颗粒的混合状态

草酸是大气环境中重要的二羧酸,可以与多种非吸湿性的多价金属形成草酸-金属络合物,并对生物健康和大气环境产生重要的影响. 众所周知,光化学反应可以促进草酸的形成. 然而,考虑到草酸与重金属（Heavy Metals, HMs）潜在的络合反应,草酸与HMs颗粒的混合态目前尚不完全清楚. 本研究利用单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪对南京市大气中含有草酸的HMs （Fe、Cu、Pb、Zn） 的粒径和化学组成进行了分析. 结果表明,与采样期间获得的整体颗粒相比（17.16%）,HMs中草酸的数分数（Number fractions, Nfs）更高（29.88%）. 草酸在各类HMs中的Nfs值分别为20.84% （Fe）、45.59% （Cu）、37.16% （Pb）、36.51% （Zn）. 此外,草酸与Cu （ r = 0.53 ）、Pb （ r = 0.55 ）和Zn （ r = 0.79 ）之间存在良好的相关性,这可能归因于它们在环境中可以形成草酸-重金属配合物. 值得注意的是,Fe与草酸在白天（r = 0.29）和夜间（r = 0.71）的相关性差异明显,这可能是因为Fe-草酸配合物在白天发生光解和Fe驱动的Fenton反应有关. 此外,气溶胶酸度（Relative acidity, Ra）和相对湿度（Relative humidity, RH）对形成草酸-重金属配合物也有影响. Ra的增强可能抑制草酸-重金属配合物的形成. 当RH > 70%时,RH增大可能促进草酸-重金属配合物的形成. 本研究为评估草酸在HMs中的增强提供了一些参考依据,同时提高了我们对大气环境中存在的草酸汇的认识.     

基于单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪的香河采暖季前后含铅颗粒物的组成特征研究

为了研究粒径在0.2?—?2.0μm的含铅颗粒物的化学组分和粒径分布特征,运用单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪(SPAMS)于2017年10月至2018年1月在河北省香河县开展观测活动.通过自适应神经网络算法(ART-2a)对含铅颗粒物进行命名、合并后,主要分为六类:富钾(Pb-K)、元素碳(Pb-EC)、有机碳元素碳(Pb-OCE...     

湖泊富营养化状态的地面高光谱遥感评价

分别于2004-06和2004-08在太湖的21个固定监测站点进行原位水质取样分析和波谱实测,进而利用地面实测高光谱数据评价太湖水体富营养化状态.水体富营养化程度的评价指标为营养状态指数(TSI).首先,根据太湖水体固有光学特性,用分析模型的方法建立水体反射率模拟模型,进而用求解优化函数的方法,利用Matlab软件反演叶绿素a浓度;其次,利用反演的叶绿素a浓度,计算采样点位的营养状态指数,并利用ArcView软件进行插值,制作太湖富营养状态评价图.结果表明,2004-06和2004-08太湖富营养化程度差     

STATE FINANCING OF WATER PROJECTS: THE UTAH EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Dramatic changes in Utah's economy caused by urbanization, large scale energy developments, and other influences will significantly reorient water use patterns. Thus, state water management policies and programs which have evolved over many years should be reevaluated. Several factors have influenced Utah water project financing policy. Among these have been: 1) the prominence of agriculture in the settlement of Utah and the century following, 2) dry cycles and periodic severe droughts, 3) recurring periods of economic depression, and 4) allocation of Colorado River water among the basin states and Mexico, Three revolving funds have been established. The Revolving Construction Fund, created in 1947, provides money for irrigation projects; the Cities Water Loan Fund, created in 1975, provides money to communities for developing culinary systems and improving quality to meet the demands of exploding population growth; and the Water Resources Conservation and Development Fund, created in 1978, provides money for large scale multipurpose water projects costing $1 million or more. The justification for these financing programs seems to be a mixture of rectifying market imperfections and income redistribution. However, trends in the agricultural sector and the multipurpose nature of large scale projects now being funded suggest that earlier justifications may no longer be valid. Rigorous project evaluation procedures, lacking in the past, should be adopted.     

Estimation and comparison of night-time OH levels in the UK urban atmosphere using two different analysis methods

Night-time OH levels have been determined for UK urban surface environments using two methods,the decay and steady state approximation methods.Measurement data from the UK National Environmental Technology Centre archive for four urban sites(Bristol,Harwell,London Eltham and Edinburgh) over the time period of 1996 to 2000 have been used in this study.Three reactive alkenes,namely isoprene,1,3-butadiene and trans-2-pentene were chosen for the calculation of OH levels by the decay method.Hourly measurements o...     

重量法和冷凝法测量烟气含湿量计算公式的改进

本文对现有文献中用重量法和冷凝法测量烟气含湿量的计算公式进行了改进，使改进后的公式更准确、适用。     

中国新时代自然资源治理体系的理论构想

基于生态文明、高质量发展和国家治理新时代的战略需求,以及国内外自然资源治理发展趋势,对中国新时代自然资源治理的指导思想、基本理念、理论体系、基本原则和目标体系等进行系统解析,对包括调查勘查评估、统计监测核算、开发利用治理、保护修复治理、保障储备治理、市场交易治理、安全预警治理和国际合作治理等在内的中国新时代自然资源治理框架体系进行系统刻画,对包括公平正义制度、资产产权制度、节约集约制度、有偿使用制度、保护修复制度、市场交易制度、统计核算制度、多元储备制度、国际合作制度和治理监督制度在内的中国特色自然资源治理制度体系进行系统解构。研究结论与观点对于提高中国自然资源治理体系与能力现代化建设水平具有重要参考价值。