谱系聚类法在小区域粮食安全预测中的应用——以昆山市为例

粮食安全对国民经济的可持续发展起着不可替代的基础性作用,小区域由于受政策因素的影响较大,粮食安全相关指标的变化呈一定阶段性,长时间序列的数学规律并不突出,不利于规划工作的展开。论文基于昆山市的研究,提出谱系聚类与数学模型相结合的基本思路,在此基础上推出了聚类结果有效性的量化判定标准并对聚类法运用准则做了深入的探讨。实际数据分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;与利用全部时间序列数据建立的模型相比,运用谱系聚类的模型拟合和预测效果都有明显优势;至2015年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至6%,最小人均耕地面积降低至0.022 hm²。通过进一步的分析、对比及讨论,文章认为,谱系聚类法运用于小区域粮食安全预测,方法可操作性强,结论科学性显著。     

1982-2006年新疆山地-绿洲-荒漠系统植被覆盖变化时空特征

植被覆盖变化在新疆山地-绿洲-荒漠系统(MODS)共存、平衡演变机制中扮演着重要角色。基于1982-2006年GIMMS/NDVI数据,提取新疆地区年最大植被覆盖指数(fvc),针对新疆MODS的基本格局,通过先地理分区再因海拔而异讨论,划分出山地、绿洲、荒漠子系统,对比分析不同分区不同子系统下fvc变化趋势、变率、变幅、变异性等时空动态特征。结果表明:新疆植被覆盖总体呈显著上升趋势,可分为1982-1995年的剧烈波动期和1996-2006年的相对平稳期,不同分区和子系统差异显著;在变幅和变异性上,东、南疆地区>北疆、伊犁地区,荒漠>山地>绿洲,植被覆盖度低的地区>植被覆盖度高的地区;显著改善的地区位于绿洲内部、绿洲的周边地区及部分山地,显著退化的地区大多位于东、南疆的荒漠区;不同植被覆盖度下植被覆盖变化具有不同特征,植被覆盖度低的地区,植被退化趋势明显,植被覆盖度高的地区,植被改善趋势明显。     

粗粒子气溶胶远距离输送造成华南严重空气污染的分析

2009年4月末,发生了一次罕见的粗粒子气溶胶远距离输送造成华南地区出现严重的空气污染事件,其特征主要是气溶胶质量浓度超标,而能见度没有明显恶化,对这次空气污染事件进行分析的结果表明.在过程中,粗细粒子质量比(PM2.5/PM10)有明显的3次下降,最低达到0.3,即PM2.5仅占PM10的30%,这与珠江三角洲地区通常以细粒子为主的污染特征有很大不同,反映了外来粗粒子的侵入特征.长江流域浮尘天气的沙尘粒子变性后,长距离输送污染物叠加本地污染物,造成这次严重空气污染事件.     

长期暴露于全氟十三酸的青鳉鱼体内分布和生物富集

研究了将青鳉鱼长期暴露于不同浓度的全氟羧酸类物质全氟十三酸(PFTriDA)后的器官分布和富集系数.结果显示, PFTriDA最高富集在性腺;其次是卵、肝脏;浓度最低的部分是残体.除了性腺之外,该器官分布与野生中华鲟的一致.在相同暴露浓度下,雄鱼体内各器官的PFTriDA的含量高于雌鱼,机理模型计算进一步表明高母子传递系数是造成雌雄差异的可能原因.随着PFTriDA暴露浓度的升高,鱼体内同一器官的生物富集系数(BCF)呈现下降趋势.     

碳源变化对降解2,4-D的好氧颗粒污泥性能及形态的影响

在长期运行的序批式生物反应器(SBR)中,考察了以葡萄糖和2,4-二氯苯氧乙酸(2,4-D)为混合碳源培养的好氧颗粒污泥在转换为2,4-D唯一碳源废水后,其形态、结构及对目标污染物去除功能的变化.结果表明,基质转换为2,4-D单一碳源后,好氧颗粒污泥仍保持了对目标污染物高效的去除能力.当进水2,4-D浓度为361～564mg/L,其去除率为99.2%～100%,COD平均去除率达到85.6%.混合碳源向2,4-D单一碳源转换对原好氧颗粒结构产生一定破坏作用,使其发生部分解体,粒径由513μm下降到302μm.但好氧颗粒污泥良好的耐负荷冲击使其保持了颗粒主体,通过一段时间适应调整后能够重新聚集生长,最终获得能够利用2,4-D为唯一碳源生长并具有良好沉降性(SVI20～40mL/g)的好氧颗粒污泥,粒径为489μm.扫描电子显微镜(SEM)观察结果表明,混合碳源转向单一碳源使好氧颗粒生物相丰富度降低.     

低温A/O-MBR工艺启动试验研究

研究了A/O-MBR工艺低温(水温在5~12℃)启动效能,结果表明,低温下A/O-MBR工艺启动迅速,活性污泥的培养驯化时间较短。启动过程中根据出水水质情况,逐渐提高负荷,运行34 d,系统对COD的去除率能达到90%以上,系统对氨氮的去除率能达到96%以上,至稳定运行后氨氮的负荷平均可达到0.419kg/(m3.d),反硝化效果系统去除率基本能稳定在60%左右。     

Individual and combined toxic effects of cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on earthworm

Toxicities were assessed for a pyrethroid (cypermethrin) and an organophosphate insecticide (chlorpyrifos) individually and in combination. A series of tests were conducted on di erent responses (acute, chronic, behavioral) of earthworms of species Eisenia fetida andrei in the ecological risk assessment of these pesticides. The results showed that the toxicity of the mixture of cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos was significantly higher than either of these pesticides individually, especially on the earthworm’s chronic responses. At a concentration of 5 mg/kg, the mixture caused significant reductions on the growth and reproduction rates of earthworms, but did not cause any significant e ect when the individual was tested. The increase in toxicity of the pesticide mixture means that the use of toxicity data obtained exclusively from single-pesticide experiments may underestimate the ecological risk of pesticides that actually present in the field.     

Effect of nutrient conditions on the toxicity of naphthalene to Chlorella pyrenoidosa

The toxicity of naphthalene to a freshwater microalga, Chlorella pyrenoidosa, and the subsequent recovery of algae from the damage were investigated under two nutrient conditions, either enriched with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), or starved of N and P. Results showed that C. pyrenoidosa was more sensitive to naphthalene under N,P-enriched condition, and the inhibitory rate generally increased at first and then decreased gradually with the evaporation of naphthalene under both nutrient conditions. Enriched N, P reduced the inhibitory rate at initial naphthalene concentration of 5 and 10 mg/L, but enhanced it at 100 mg/L, at which more severe ultrastructure damages were found than those under N,P-starved condition. Observed damages included partly or totally disappearance of nucleolus, nuclear, and plasma membranes. According to the chlorophyll content and cell density measurements, C. pyrenoidosa could recover from naphthalene damage with initial concentrations 6 50 mg/L in 7 days under both nutrient conditions, while they could not recover if the initial concentration of naphthalene was at 100 mg/L. Under the N,P-starved condition, the inability of C. pyrenoidosa to recover from the naphthalene damage was consistent with the results of high inhibitory rate, low value of specific growth rate (SGR, 0.05 day??1), and the severe destruction of cell structure. However, under the N,P-enriched conditions, the observed lower inhibitory rate, higher value of SGR (0.55 day??1), and the intact cell structure of most cells suggested that algae could potentially recover from the naphthalene damage.     

Identification of odorous compounds in reclaimed water using FPA combined with sensory GC-MS

Odorous compounds in the influent of a reclaimed water treatment plant (RWTP), consisting of coagulation, sedimentation, continuous micro-filtration (CMF), and chlorination in succession, in a north China city, were identified by combining flavor profile analysis (FPA) with sensory gas chromatograph-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The sewery/swampy/septic odor with an odor intensity of 6.4 was found to be the major odor group in the RWTP influent, and the existence of well-known odorant including dimethyl disulfide, dimethyl trisulfide, indole and skatole were confirmed using GC-MS. The result of a spiking test showed that the intensity (3.6) of the sewery/swampy/septic odor caused by these four chemicals contributed to over 50% of the odor intensity of the influent. The FPA intensity for sewery/swampy/septic odor in the RWTP effluent was 3.8, showing that the treatment process was not efficient for the removal of odorants, particularly indole and skatole.     

大型溞母溞暴露于氨氮所产子代对氨氮毒性的耐受性

采用大型溞(Daphnia magna)作为受试生物,在测定了氨氮对大型溞的急慢性毒性效应的基础上,进一步研究了在慢性毒性试验中暴露于氨氮环境下的母溞所产子代对氨氮的毒性响应.急性毒性试验结果表明,氨氮对大型溞的24 h和48 h的LC50分别为165.97和69.54 mg/L.21 d慢性试验结果表明:大型溞的生长指标——脱皮数是对氨氮最为敏感的毒性参数;其慢性毒性下限值(LCL)和慢性毒性上限值(UCL)分别为1.88和3.75 mg/L;据此计算出的慢性毒性值(CHV)为2.66 mg/L,急慢性比(ACR)为26.14.在慢性试验中,暴露于毒物的母体所产的子代幼溞,与对照组相比,其48 h LC50都有所增大(增幅为13.7%～56.2%),说明对毒物的适应性有所增强.