Modeling spatio-temporal wildfire ignition point patterns

We analyze and model the structure of spatio-temporal wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District in northeastern Florida. Previous studies, based on the K-function and an assumption of homogeneity, have shown that wildfire events occur in clusters. We revisit this analysis based on an inhomogeneous K-function and argue that clustering is less important than initially thought. We also use K-cross functions to study multitype point patterns, both under homogeneity and inhomogeneity assumptions, and reach similar conclusions as above regarding the amount of clustering. Of particular interest is our finding that prescribed burns seem not to reduce significantly the occurrence of wildfires in the current or subsequent year over this large geographical region. Finally, we describe various point pattern models for the location of wildfires and investigate their adequacy by means of recent residual diagnostics.

小秦岭金矿区矿山地质环境研究

为了了解小秦岭金矿区的地质环境,选用目前应用广泛的物元评价法、模糊数学评价法、灰色聚类评价法建立了地质环境评价模型,对小秦岭金矿区的地质环境进行了综合评价,结果表明,该地区的地质环境整体较好,局部地区已经严重恶化,同时,结合该地区的实际情况,提出了改善该地区地质环境质量的具体意见。     

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis using an integrated approach of clustering and MCDM under pythagorean fuzzy environment

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is an effective risk analysis and failure avoidance approach in the design, process, services, and system. With all its benefits, FMEA has three limitations: failure mode risk assessment and prioritization, complex FMEA worksheets, and difficult application of FMEA tables. This paper seeks to overcome the shortcomings of FMEA using an integrated approach based on a developed Pythagorean fuzzy (PF) k-means clustering algorithm and a popular MCDM method called PF-VIKOR. In the first step, Pythagorean fuzzy numbers (PFNs) were used to collect Severity (S), Occurrence (O), and Detection (D) factors for failure modes to incorporate uncertainty and fuzziness into subjective judgments. Afterward, failure modes were clustered by developing a novel k-means clustering algorithm that accepts PFNs as input. Finally, the PF-VIKOR approach was used to analyze the ordering of cluster risks. The proposed approach was implemented in the dehydration unit of an Iranian gas refinery and the results were compared with the traditional FMEA. The findings showed the flexibility and applicability of the proposed approach in addressing real-world problems. This research provides two key contributions: (1) designing a PFN-based k-means clustering algorithm that tackles FMEA limitations and (2) using the PF-VIKOR method for prioritizing and evaluating failure mode clusters.     

城市大气采样点的模糊聚类优选方法

运用数理统计模糊聚类分析方法对各大气采样点获得的监测数据进行聚类相关分析,优选出较科学、合理且足以能反映城市大气污染水平、分布特征及时空变化规律的采样点。文中详细介绍了优选方法。     

Seasonal variations of transport pathways and potential sources of PM2.5 in Chengdu,China (2012–2013)

PM_2.5 in Chengdu showed clear seasonal and diurnal variation. 5, 5, 5 and 3 mean clusters are generated in spring, summer, autumn, and winter. Short-distance air masses are important pathways in Chengdu. Emissions within the Sichuan Basin contribute significantly to PM_2.5 pollution. Long-range transport from Southern Xinjiang is a dust invasion path to Chengdu. Seasonal pattern of transport pathways and potential sources of PM_2.5 in Chengdu during 2012–2013 were investigated based on hourly PM_2.5 data, backward trajectories, clustering analysis, potential source contribution function (PSCF), and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) method. The annual hourly mean PM_2.5 concentration in Chengdu was 97.4 mg·m^–3. 5, 5, 5 and 3 mean clusters were generated in four seasons, respectively. Short-distance air masses, which travelled within the Sichuan Basin with no specific source direction and relatively high PM_2.5 loadings (>80 mg·m^–3) appeared as important pathways in all seasons. These short pathways indicated that emissions from both local and surrounding regions of Chengdu contributed significantly to PM_2.5 pollution. The cities in southern Chengdu were major potential sources with PSCF>0.6 and CWT>90 mg·m^–3. The northeastern pathway prevailed throughout the year with higher frequency in autumn and winter and lower frequency in spring and summer. In spring, long-range transport from southern Xinjiang was a representative dust invasion path to Chengdu, and the CWT values along the path were 30-60 mg·m^–3. Long-range transport was also observed in autumn from southeastern Xinjiang along a northwesterly pathway, and in winter from the Tibetan Plateau along a westerly pathway. In summer, the potential source regions of Chengdu were smaller than those in other seasons, and no long-range transport pathway was observed. Results of PSCF and CWT indicated that regions in Qinghai and Tibet contributed to PM_2.5 pollution in Chengdu as well, and their CWT values increased to above 30 mg·m^-3 in winter.     

A new procedure to optimize the selection of groups in a classification tree: Applications for ecological data

Agglomerative cluster analyses encompass many techniques, which have been widely used in various fields of science. In biology, and specifically ecology, datasets are generally highly variable and may contain outliers, which increase the difficulty to identify the number of clusters. Here we present a new criterion to determine statistically the optimal level of partition in a classification tree. The criterion robustness is tested against perturbated data (outliers) using an observation or variable with values randomly generated. The technique, called Random Simulation Test (RST), is tested on (1) the well-known Iris dataset [Fisher, R.A., 1936. The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Ann. Eugenic. 7, 179–188], (2) simulated data with predetermined numbers of clusters following Milligan and Cooper [Milligan, G.W., Cooper, M.C., 1985. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set. Psychometrika 50, 159–179] and finally (3) is applied on real copepod communities data previously analyzed in Beaugrand et al. [Beaugrand, G., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J.A., Reid, P.C., 2002. Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 179–195]. The technique is compared to several standard techniques. RST performed generally better than existing algorithms on simulated data and proved to be especially efficient with highly variable datasets.     

Gene expression responses of paper birch (Betula papyrifera) to elevated CO2 and O3 during leaf maturation and senescence

Gene expression responses of paper birch (Betula papyrifera) leaves to elevated concentrations of CO₂ and O₃ were studied with microarray analyses from three time points during the summer of 2004 at Aspen FACE. Microarray data were analyzed with clustering techniques, self-organizing maps, K-means clustering and Sammon's mappings, to detect similar gene expression patterns within sampling times and treatments. Most of the alterations in gene expression were caused by O₃, alone or in combination with CO₂. O₃ induced defensive reactions to oxidative stress and earlier leaf senescence, seen as decreased expression of photosynthesis- and carbon fixation-related genes, and increased expression of senescence-associated genes. The effects of elevated CO₂ reflected surplus of carbon that was directed to synthesis of secondary compounds. The combined CO₂ + O₃ treatment resulted in differential gene expression than with individual gas treatments or in changes similar to O₃ treatment, indicating that CO₂ cannot totally alleviate the harmful effects of O₃.     

Exploring the severity of bicycle–vehicle crashes using latent class clustering approach in India

IntroductionBicyclists are vulnerable users in the shared asset like roadways. However, people still prefer to use bicycles for environmental, societal, and health benefits. In India, the bicycle plays a role in supporting the mobility to more people at lower cost and are often associated with the urban poor. Bicyclists represents one of the road user categories with highest risk of injuries and fatalities. According to the report by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (Accidents, 2017) in India, there is a sharp increase in the number of fatal victims for bicyclists in 2017 over 2016. The number of cyclists killed jumped from 2,585 in 2016 to 3,559 in 2017, a 37.7% increase. Method: Few studies have only investigated the crash risk perceived by the bicyclists while interacting with other road users. The present paper investigates the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle-vehicle crashes that occurred in the state of Tamilnadu, India during the nine year period (2009–2017). The analyses demonstrate that dividing bicycle-vehicle collision data into five clusters helps in reducing the systematic heterogeneity present in the data and identify the hidden relationship between the injury severity levels of bicyclists and cyclists demographics, vehicle, environmental, temporal cause for the crashes. Results: Latent Class Clustering (LCC) approach was used in the present study as a preliminary tool for the segmentation of 9,978 crashes. Later, logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors that influence bicycle crash severity for the whole dataset as well as for the clusters that were obtained from the LCC model. Results of this study show that combined use of both techniques reveals further information that wouldn’t be obtained without prior segmentation of the data. Few variables such as season, weather conditions, and light conditions were significant for certain clusters that were hidden in the whole dataset. This study can help domain experts or traffic safety researchers to segment traffic crashes and develop targeted countermeasures to mitigate injury severity.