An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Impact of leakage location and downwind storage tank on the gas dispersion in a typical chemical tank storage area

Toxic gas leakage in a tank area can have catastrophic consequences. Storage tank leakage location (particularly for high leakage) and downwind storage tanks potentially influence gas diffusion in tank areas. In this study, we developed a numerical and experimental method to investigate the impact of a high leakage location and downwind storage tank on gas diffusion based on three (1.05H, 0.90H, and 0.77H, H was the tank height, 22m) leakage field experiments on the leeward side of storage tank, which have been not conducted before. The experiments revealed an unexpected phenomenon: the maximum ground concentration first decreased and then increased with increasing leakage height. The simulations illustrated that the differences in micrometeorological conditions caused the maximum ground concentration of gas emitted from the roof to be higher than that emitted from the tank wall near the storage tank height. The downwind storage tank 1) had little influence on the entire diffusion direction but altered the local diffusion pattern; 2) reduced the maximum ground concentration (∼18.7%) and the distance from the emission source (approximately a storage tank diameter); and 3) had strong influences on the concentration, velocity, turbulence, and pressure on the leeward side. The concentration negatively correlated with the velocity, pressure, and turbulence in the middle of the two storage tanks on wind centerline. Our results can improve understanding of gas dispersion in tank areas and provide references for mitigating loss and protecting lives during emergency response processes.     

Influence of sewage culvert cover plate thickness on dynamic response and damage of the cover plate under gas explosion

In order to address the risk of combustible gas explosions in sewage culverts, a numerical model was established using ANSYS/LS-DYNA software. The model consisted of a culvert and a cover plate, and was used to study the effect of cover plate thickness (ranging from 0.08 m to 0.12 m) on the dynamic response and damage of the structure under explosive loads. The results indicated that, during the loading negative pressure stage, the equivalent stress peak value of the central monitoring unit of the cover plate first increased and then decreased with increasing cover plate thickness. Additionally, the maximum principal stress peak value first decreased and then increased, while the maximum shear stress peak value first increased and then decreased. During the loading positive pressure stage, the maximum principal strain peak value of the monitoring unit decreased overall with increasing cover plate thickness. However, the equivalent plastic strain peak value initially increased and then decreased gradually. The equivalent strain indicated that plastic damage occurred in the cover plate. Beyond a thickness of 0.11 m, increasing the cover thickness did not appear to enhance its resistance to plastic damage. The damage analysis revealed that as cover plate thickness increased, the peak displacement and velocity of the monitoring unit continued to decrease, while the overall stability and explosive resistance of the cover plate increased. Additionally, the number of damaged fragments decreased. However, once the cover plate thickness reached 0.11 m, the bonding performance of the reinforced concrete structure had been fully developed, increasing the thickness of the cover plate no longer had a significant impact on the explosive resistance of the cover plate.     

Study on acceleration and suppression properties of coal gangue with different void fractions on gas explosion propagation

Gas explosion is one of the main disasters in coal mining. Plenty of coal gangue are generally distributed in the disaster areas in gob. Experiments were carried out to explore the propagation law of the gas explosion distributed by coal gangue. The variation characteristics of the overpressure, pressure rise rate, and flame shape with void fractions were analyzed. The results showed that the effect of the coal gangue on the explosion intensity changed from suppression to acceleration with the increase of void fraction, the flame front upstream blockage area changed from laminar state to turbulent divergent state, and a reverse flame was formed. When the void fraction of the coal gangue was 0.50–0.65, the maximum overpressure downstream of the blocked area were positively correlated with the void fraction and the critical suppression range was between 0.50 and 0.55. When the void fraction was lower than 0.50, the flame was quenched in the coal gangue, neither the flame nor the pressure could pass through the blocked area. It is helpful to guide the improvement of coal recovery process to avoid the expansion of the explosion impact in coalmine gob.     

水中乙醛、丙烯醛和丙烯腈3种测定方法的对比

对比研究了大体积直接进样填充柱气相色谱法、顶空-气相色谱法和吹扫捕集-气相色谱法等3种测定水中乙醛、丙烯醛和丙烯腈的方法.结果表明,大体积直接进样法设备简单,但手动进样耗力费时,且灵敏度低,精密度差,直接水样分析易影响色谱柱和检测器的使用寿命;顶空法稳定性好,线性范围宽,相关性和精密度好,适合较高浓度水样的分析;吹扫捕集法操作简便,峰形好,检出限低,回收率高,适合低浓度水样的分析.顶空法和吹扫捕集法自动化程度高,均适用于大批量样品分析.     

顶空固相微萃取-色谱质谱联用测定饮用水中二甲基异冰片和土味素

研究了顶空固相微萃取-气相色谱质谱联用测定饮用水中二甲基异冰片和土味素的方法。结果表明,当选用聚二甲基硅氧烷(PDMS)萃取纤维萃取头,萃取温度为60℃,萃取时间为40min时,得到二甲基异冰片标准曲线方程为y=122.59+157.76x,相关系数(R)0.9998;土味素的标准曲线方程为y=14.847+180.99x,相关系数(R)0.9999;检出限为0.1ng/L,相对标准偏差在0.99%～4.05%之间,加标回收率86.4%～109.5%。     

微波-亚临界水萃取底泥中两种多氯联苯的研究

微波亚临界水萃取模拟土样中的2,3-二氯联苯和3,3′-二氯联苯,用气相色谱进行分析。与亚临界水萃取方法相比,该法缩短了萃取时间,分析物的萃取回收率有所提高。对微波亚临界水的萃取条件进行优化,确定了最佳萃取条件为时间20min、温度区段为210℃～225℃。方法对长江镇江段内江的底泥中的多氯联苯进行分析,测定结果与索氏提取-GC分析结果吻合,且不受底泥中腐殖质等有机物影响。     

衍生化气相色谱法测定环境水样中的多菌灵

通过对反应温度、时间等衍生化条件的优化研究,建立了环境水样中残留多菌灵的衍生化气相色谱氮磷检测方法。方法的最低检出浓度为0.10μg/L,样品加标回收率为83.2%～90.9%,相对标准偏差为4.6%。利用该方法能较好地满足GB 21523-2008《杂环类农药工业水污染物排放标准》中该杂环类农药的痕量测定要求。     

A rapid method for determination of Aroclor 1260 in cattle adipose tissue

Abstract

A simple analytical procedure for the determination of Aroclor 1260 in cattle adipose tissue is described. The polychlorinated biphenyls residues are extracted from the tissue using a soxhlet extractor and the extracts are cleaned up using a florisil SEP‐PAK cartridge. The residues are detected using a gas chromatograph equipped with an electron capture detector. The effect of extraction time of the Aroclor 1260 residues from the tissue has been investigated and a period of four hours is found to give satisfactory percent recoveries. Greater than 85 percent recoveries were obtained from adipose tissue spiked with Aroclor 1260. The method can be used to detect Aroclor 1260 residue levels as low as 0.10 parts per million.

The method was used to analyze thirty‐one cattle adipose tissue samples out of which twenty‐six samples were taken from cattle suspected of exposure to a pasture containing electrical transformers and capacitors containing Aroclor 1260. Five control samples were collected from cattle with no known exposure. All twenty‐six samples were found to contain non‐detectable Aroclor 1260 residues.     

Challenges to liberalism: The case of Australian energy policy

This paper considers liberal and nationalist economic policy approaches to the ownership and development of Australian energy resources (oil, gas, coal and uranium). In the two decades prior to 1983, Australia pursued economic policies in relation to its energy resources which could broadly be described as ‘nationalist’. Governments of the day intervened in development decisions in an effort to enhance the ‘national interest’. From 1983, along with the deregulation of the Australian economy as a whole, policy relating to energy resources was liberalised. Development of energy reserves henceforth occurred according to the dictates of the market. This paper argues that recent Australian energy policy initiatives reflect an increase in nationalist influences and a retreat from the liberalisation agenda that dominated energy policy making in the 1980s and 1990s. Three examples are discussed where policy has been influenced by a nationalist framework: (1) the domestic gas reservation policy in Western Australia; (2) Australian government efforts to promote a ‘value adding’ nuclear processing industry and (3) Australian Labor Party policy giving preferential financial incentives for gas to liquids projects. The re-emergence of nationalism in Australia is occurring either because policy makers now favour it as a path to energy security or in some cases because they believe that appeals to nationalism will generate political support.