Simulation and application of a disaster spread model in Chemical Disaster Network

In the research field of chemical safety, the computer-aided simulation for occurrence and process of disasters has become a major trend in current research, in which the establishment of evolution system for chemical multi disasters is the key point. In the paper, the study lays emphasis on the simulation and application of a spread model for chemical multi disasters. After establishing a disaster network, we defined microcosmic elements of spread model specifically. Combined with guideline of chemical disaster (e.g. guideline of heat flux for damages or injure, guideline of evaluation for buildings based explosion and overpressure, and guideline of evaluation for human exposure to toxic gases), the weight of impact can be computed using new comprehensive algorithms. Simultaneously, the paper also uses an approach on simulating multiple failure events to describe random factors of triggering disasters. At last, the experimental case of alkyl aluminum leakage in a polypropylene plant shows the result of simulation with table of 5 major series of disasters and distribution diagram of nodes (disasters) in disaster network. This proves the validity and practicability of the simulation system in the establishment and feedback of contingency plan of large-scale petrochemical enterprises.     

Should all disaster risks be reduced? A perspective from the systems concept of the edge of chaos

The field of disaster risk reduction (DRR) has risen to prominence since the declaration of the International Decade of Disaster Risk Reduction between 1990 and 2000. This decade provided the impetus for a change from the predominant paradigm of disaster response to that of disaster risk reduction as a means of addressing the underlying drivers that lead to disasters. In an effort to promote risk reduction, the UNISDR (the principal agency for disaster risk reduction within the UN structure) formulated policies and strategies to provide both conceptual and practical guidance as to how risk should be reduced. However noble the efforts, this paper contends that the current approach to and understanding of risk within the international community might not be cognisant of complex adaptive systems (CAS) concepts such as the edge of chaos. Specifically, this concept argues that risk (or chaos) within a system is actually a fundamental requirement to the functioning of all resilient socio-ecological systems. Therefore, the reduction of risk without an understanding of the role of that risk within the larger socio-ecological system might actually end up reducing the system’s overall level of disaster resilience. This paper aims to explore the concept of edge of chaos through a literature review of key theoretical works on the topic, followed by a discussion on its implications for the predominant paradigm of risk reduction within disaster risk management policy and practice.     

再论灾害研究的理论与实践

本文在作者１９９１年发表的“研究的现状与实践”一文基础上，全面分析了当前国外灾害理论研究的进展，对灾害理论研究中的２灾因子论，孕灾环境论，承灾体论进行了评述，并系统地阐述了区域灾害系统论的主要内容，即在综合分析组成区域灾害系统的致灾因子，孕灾环境，承灾体的基础上，通过对致灾因子的风险性评估，孕灾环境稳定性的分析，承灾体易损性的评价，揭示区域致灾与成灾过程中灾 情纬傻亩ρЩ?     

我国海冰的可能最大厚度

我国的渤海和黄海北部近岸海域，每年冬季都有海冰出现，渤海的辽东湾是我国冰情最严重海区。在渤海，特别是辽东湾，海注作用力是海洋工程设计的控制荷载。海注的厚度是计算海冰作用力的重要参数之一。本文根据渤海辽东湾北部鲅鱼圈和盘锦海洋站的气温和海冰观测资料，建立了计算海冰厚度的经验公式，并据此估算了我国平整海冰的可能最大厚度为８０ｃｍ。     

震灾保险新制式与国内外现行制式的比较研究

本文概括分析了国外震灾保险制式的形成思路、实施准则及其局限性；指出国内大多数研究模式受传统观念的制约，只能是对国外制式的效仿和沿袭；进而介绍了一种能够有效克服一般模式弊病的新型震灾保险制式，并对其实质与科学蕴涵作了简略阐述。     

确立灾害评估标准是我国“国际减灾十年”目标的重要问题

本文通过许多实例.从测、报、抗、防、救等几个方面论述灾害评估标准的重要性,进而说明了灾害评估与减灾管理以及灾情统计的密切关系.文中还根据我国近几年灾害经济损失的情况对90年代的减灾目标提出了看法.     

Predicting commercial fishing vessel disasters through a novel application of the theory of man-made disasters

Introduction: Vessel disasters (e.g., sinkings, capsizings) are a leading contributor to fatalities in the U.S. commercial fishing industry. Primary prevention strategies are needed to reduce the occurrence of vessel disasters, which can only be done by developing an understanding of their causes and risk factors. If less serious vessel casualties (e.g., loss of propulsion, fire, flooding) are predictors of future disasters, then reducing vessel casualties should in turn reduce vessel disasters and the accompanying loss of life. Method: This case-control study examined the association between vessel casualties and disasters using fishing vessels in Alaska during 2010–2015. Results: The findings show that vessels that experienced casualties within a preceding 10-year period were at increased odds of disaster. Other significant predictors included safety decal status and hull material. Practical Applications: The results of this analysis emphasize the importance of implementing vessel-specific preventive maintenance plans. At an industry level, specific prevention policies should be developed focusing on high-risk fleets to identify and correct a wide range of safety deficits before they have catastrophic and fatal consequences.     

地震对策在天津市减灾中的作用：兼论增产与减损关系

本文通过大量的事实和数据,依据政治经济学原理,阐述了地震灾害在天津市发展和建设中带来的巨大损失;指出:城市发展必须兼颐增产与减损两个方面,以确保投资的有效性。     

灾害防御工程的经济效益评价原理及方法—以水坝震害防御工程为例

本文根据“价值工程”理论和“成本—效益”理论,在作者提出的防灾工程“功能函数”、“成本函数”、“价值函数”、“效益函数”等灾害经济学基本函数及数学模型的基础上,结合地质灾害防御工程实例,探讨了防灾工程经济效益的评价原理及方法。     

灾害保险在灾害防御中的作用：以江苏省自然灾害为例

本文以江苏省的自然灾害为例,阐述了灾害保险在减轻自然灾害损失中的作用,提出在经济发达地区,灾害保险应作为灾害防御对策中的重要方面。