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201.
202.
Carola Braun Katrin Rehdanz Ulrich Schmidt 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2018,61(1):143-160
This paper analyses how new information shapes public perception of a controversially discussed technology over time. The test case analysed in this paper is solar radiation management (SRM), a potentially risky, environmental engineering technology, which aims to fight climate change by the injection of sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere. Using panel survey data, we show that most respondents initially show strong negative emotions towards SRM and reject the technology. However, public perception is not stable over time as emotions cool off and acceptance increases. The increase in acceptance is greater, the longer the cooling-off period between two surveys. Furthermore, we show that the cooling-off effect is more pronounced for more impulsive respondents. 相似文献
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205.
Don C. MacIver 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1998,49(2-3):177-189
Strategies to conserve biodiversity need to include the monitoring, modelling, adaptation and regulation of the composition of the atmosphere. Atmospheric issues include climate variability and extremes; climate change; stratospheric ozone depletion; acid deposition; photochemical pollution; suspended particulate matter; and hazardous air pollutants. Coarse filter and fine filter approaches have been used to understand the complexity of the interactions between the atmosphere and biodiversity. In the first approach, climate-based models, using GIS technology, helped create future biodiversity scenarios under a 2 × CO2 atmosphere. In the second approach, the SI/MAB forest biodiversity monitoring protocols helped calibrate the climate-forest biodiversity baseline and, as global diagnostics, helped identify where the biodiversity was in equilibrium with the present climate. Forest climate monitoring, an enhancing protocol, was used in a co-location approach to define the thermal buffering capacity of forest ecosystems and their ability to reduce and ameliorate global climate variability, extremes and change. 相似文献
206.
气候条件对中国水稻稻飞虱为害规律的影响 总被引:30,自引:4,他引:30
稻飞虱除了在海南、广东、广西、二南南部冬季有少量虫源存活外,在中国其它大部分地区常年均不能越冬,春秋季初始虫源主要来自于国外。越南是中国稻飞虱的主要初始虫源地,中国稻飞虱直接来自越南红河三角洲,而最初的虫源地为泪公河三角洲。入境后的稻飞虱每年均出现有规律的5次由南向北和3次由北向南的迁飞过程。暖冬使越南等境外或中国稻飞虱越冬区的稻飞虱迁入期提前,为害期延长.中国稻飞虱发生较重的年份大多出现在3—5月副高较强的年份.厄尔尼诺年的次年中国稻飞虱有可能严重发生。 相似文献
207.
Brian C. Dietterick James A. Lynch Edward S. Corbett 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1999,35(2):457-468
ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept. 相似文献
208.
Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1999,35(6):1597-1623
ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations. 相似文献
209.
S. W. Hostetler E. E. Small 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1999,35(6):1625-1637
ABSTRACT: We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30°C over the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature. 相似文献
210.
Philip Chao 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1999,35(6):1499-1507
ABSTRACT: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted an assessment of Great Lakes water resources impacts under transient climate change scenarios. The integrated model linked empirical regional climate downscaling, hydrologic and hydraulic models, and water resource use sub-models. The water resource uses include hydropower, navigation, shoreline damages, and wetland area. The study is unique in that both steady-state 2°CO2 and transient global circulation model (GCM) scenarios were used and compared to each other. The results are consistent with other impact studies in that high scatter in regional climate among the GCM scenarios lead to high uncertainty in impacts. Nevertheless, the transient scenarios show that in the near-term (approximately 20 years) significant changes could occur. This result only adds to the urgency of creating more flexible and robust management of water resources uses. 相似文献