基于马尔科夫链-多目标模型的应急供应链决策优化研究

为应对洪涝、新冠肺炎疫情等突发灾难,提出供应物资满足率最大、供应时间最短、供应成本最低的离散时间马尔科夫链-多目标规划模型(DTMC-MOP),动态地识别、分析、应对应急供应链风险;采用改进自适应NSGA-Ⅱ算法求解优化模型,并通过标准测试函数进行测试与评价,验证模型的可行性和有效性;通过算例分析,获得精度更高、分布更均匀的Pareto最优前沿。研究结果表明:决策者可以依据应急管理核心目标或不同偏好选择相适应的应急方案,研究结果可为应急供应链决策优化提供1种科学方法,对保障灾民生命安全、维护社会和谐稳定具有积极意义。     

Real-time leak detection in oil pipelines using an Inverse Transient Analysis model

Based on Inverse Transient Analysis (ITA) method, a real-time leak detection method is proposed to capture leak location and the associated leak rate in oil pipe conveyance systems. In the proposed approach, location and flow rate of leak (if any), the fluid properties, as well as physical parameters of the system, are calculated in consecutive periods through minimizing the discrepancy between the calculated and measured flow parameters of the system. The method of characteristics is employed to numerically calculate the transient responses of the system and the genetic algorithm is utilized as the optimization engine. The proposed approach was applied to several real pipeline systems in which the required transient flow data are either directly collected from the field or fabricated with a third-party numerical software. Extensive numerical explorations were conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed method in real-time leak detection and to determine the extent to which field data errors, stemming from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems and measurement equipment, affect the leak flow rate and location detectability of the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed approach provides promising results under a variety of transient and steady-state flow conditions even in the case with small leak flow rate of around 2% of the line rate. The results also reveal that the noises in the measurement data and the errors originated from SCADA systems do not significantly compromise the leak detectability of the proposed approach, confirming that the proposed approach can be utilized in practice.     

水质模型参数识别的遗传算法

Ｏ’ｃｏｎｎｏｒ模型是一个比广泛应用的Ｓｔｒｅｅｔｅｒ－Ｐｈｉｌｉｐｓ模型更精确的水质模型,由于该模型参数率定的困难性,限制它在实际中应用。     

Ecology of<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Leptothorax</Emphasis> ants: impact of food,nest sites,and social parasites

In a long-term field manipulation, we demonstrate strong reactions of Leptothorax longispinosus ant colonies to food- and nest-site supplementation. Demographic and genetic responses varied over small geographic scales, and the two ecological factors interacted with the presence of the social parasite Protomognathus americanus. We conducted a 2×2 experiment in three blocks and found that the blocks, which were less than 100 m apart, reacted very differently to the treatments. Blocks differed in degree of polygyny, intranest relatedness, colony size, productivity, and sexual investment. Furthermore, these differences were associated with the presence of slave-making ants and the local availability of nest sites. Nest-site supplementation had a strong effect only in the site with the highest prevalence of social parasites, influencing there the density and investment patterns of colonies. L. longispinosus ants in the least parasitized area were strongly affected by both food- and nest-site supplementation. There, food supplementation led to a decrease in the number of queens per colony and consequently to an increase in intranest relatedness, while colonies in nest-site-supplemented areas invested fewer resources in males and produced a female-biased allocation ratio. By contrast, in a third block with a very low intracolonial relatedness, food supplementation induced an absolute and relative higher investment in males. We conclude that ecological factors influencing social organization in insect societies cannot be studied in isolation, because the interactions among factors produce far richer responses than any one variable.Communicated by L. Sundström     

人群分区疏散优化算法研究

在疏散过程中,出口利用不均现象时有发生,距离最短路径并不一定是最快的路径。提出了大规模人群分区疏散优化算法,该算法以疏散时间最短为目标,综合考虑了人群分布、出口位置、出口宽度等因素,通过迭代计算,求解每个行人的最优出口选择,从而得到优化疏散分区结果。以具有多个出口的某大型步行商业街区疏散为例,利用经典的无后退有偏随机行走模型进行模拟计算,对是否采用优化分区的疏散时间进行了比较分析。结果表明:采用优化分区疏散时,部分人员放弃路径最短的疏散出口,而被导向选择宽度较宽和附近人员密度较低的出口,从而提高整体疏散效率。该算法解决了以距离最短为目标的疏散分区方式导致的出口利用不均和不充分的现象,有效提高了疏散效率,对于区域分区疏散策略的制定具有一定指导意义。     

基于遗传算法的洪水灾情评估神经网络模型探讨

洪水灾情评估实际上是一种模式识别问题,而人工神经网络模型具有逼近有界闭子集上任意非线性映射的特性,且模型更新方便。本文邮基于遗传算法的洪水灾情评估神经网络模型,阐述了其基本原理和算法,实例研究表明其实用性、客观性和通用性。     

Kin-related spatial structure in brown bears Ursus arctos

Kin-related social structure may influence reproductive success and survival and, hence, the dynamics of populations. It has been documented in many gregarious animal populations, but few solitary species. Using molecular methods and field data we tested: (1) whether kin-related spatial structure exists in the brown bear (Ursus arctos), which is a solitary carnivore, (2) whether home ranges of adult female kin overlap more than those of nonkin, and (3) whether multigenerational matrilinear assemblages, i.e., aggregated related females, are formed. Pairwise genetic relatedness between adult (5 years and older) female dyads declined significantly with geographic distance, whereas this was not the case for male–male dyads or opposite sex dyads. The amount of overlap of multiannual home ranges was positively associated with relatedness among adult females. This structure within matrilines is probably due to kin recognition. Plotting of multiannual home-range centers of adult females revealed formation of two types of matrilines, matrilinear assemblages exclusively using an area and dispersed matrilines spread over larger geographic areas. The variation in matrilinear structure might be due to differences in competitive abilities among females and habitat limitations. The influence of kin-related spatial structure on inclusive fitness needs to be clarified in solitary mammals.     

Extra-pair paternity and male characteristics in the pied flycatcher

The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is sexually dichromatic with extreme variation in male plumage coloration. The benefit for males of having black plumage is controversial, and few studies have found evidence for a sexual selection benefit of being black rather than brown. However, blacker males may be better able to achieve extra-pair fertilizations (EPFs), which may be an important component of sexual selection. We studied the role of EPFs in sexual selection in the pied flycatcher by establishing a set-up where two males with different back coloration (blacker vs browner) bred simultaneously near each other. DNA fingerprinting analysis revealed that 11% of offspring resulted from EPFs, and that 22% of broods included extra-pair young (EPY) among 36 nests containing 223 nestlings. We found no evidence that browner males suffered more often from EPFs than blacker males. There was no correlation of male or female morphology or age with EPF frequency. However, breeding pairs with low genetic similarity had EPY in their nests significantly more often. Thus we argue that females paired with genetically dissimilar males may try to avoid the effects of extreme outbreeding by seeking extra-pair copulations (EPCs). Alternatively, incompatibility between genetically dissimilar mates may simply expose females to more extra-pair copulations.     

Morphometric variables of honeybees Apis mellifera used in ecotypes characterization in Argentina

The honeybee Apis mellifera has evolved in different environments and has developed different ecotypes. The objective of the Honeybee Genetic program in Argentina (MeGA) is to select honeybees adapted to different regions in the country using an important number of colonies as base population. In the last years, morphometric analyses are being incorporated into the Program as a tool for characterization of genetic materials; this fact has motivated the present work. A random sample of honeybee workers (250) was taken from 30 colonies situated in different regions in the country. The proboscis, right hind leg, right forewing and hind wing were placed on a slide and the following variables were measured: length and width of forewing and hind wing, different angles and length of wing veins, the length of the tibia, femur and metatarsi, the width of the metatarsi and the length of the proboscis. Thirty morphometrical variables were analyzed and the distribution and relation between them were recorded.