Statistical considerations of progressive value and risk in mineral exploration

Financial markets recognise maximisation of expected value (E), in an essentially risk-neutral context, as the main corporate financial objective of private enterprise. This may be valid for large, integrated mining companies. Yet, most junior and middle-size exploration companies behave in a risk-averse fashion when making decisions about progressively more expensive exploration programs. From their perspective, a potential increase in expected value from either an increase in target value or related probability of discovery, or both, may not be a sufficient incentive to embark in an exploration programme if the resultant increase in expected value is accompanied by a significant increase in possible maximum loss. Risk-averse explorers may be unwilling to bear larger, albeit less probable losses, when the cost of successive exploration programmes is taken into account. The paper provides a practical methodology for such explorers to optimise the decision whether to progress to the next stage of exploration or to farm out a risky project. It uses a decision-tree model incorporating the effectiveness of the proposed exploration programme, the explorer's risk tolerance and related utility values and the probability distribution of the possible value of the exploration target.     

Factor demand flexibility in the primary aluminium industry: Evidence from stagnating and expanding regions

The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare short-run factor demand responses to price changes in the primary aluminium industry in Western Europe and the Africa-Middle East (AME) region. We outline a Translog variable cost function model, which is estimated employing a panel data set at the individual smelter level over the time period 1990-2003. The empirical results show evidence of limited - but far from insignificant - price-induced factor demand responses in the short-run. Overall aluminium smelters in the AME-region show evidence of higher estimated short-run own- and cross-price elasticities than their competitors in Western Europe, at least when it comes to labour and electricity demand. One important reason for this result is the greater number of pot lines with slightly different technologies at each smelter as well as the more intense use of the Prebake technology in the AME-region making retrofits in existing plants less costly than in Western Europe. The results also suggest that in both regions the demand for electricity has over time become less sensitive to short-run price changes, while the labour and material demand responses to price changes have increased but only in the AME-region. The liberalisation of the Western European electricity markets in combination with the rigid labour markets in this part of the world suggest that the shift in production capacity from the western world to the AME-region as well as China may continue.     

GC-MS和GC-ECD同时在线观测本底大气中的HCFC-142b

2010年5月～2011年5月,利用自组装气相色谱-质谱联用法(GC-MS)和气相色谱-电子捕获检测法(GC-ECD)在线观测系统,在北京上甸子区域大气本底站开展了二氟一氯乙烷(HCFC-142b)在线观测对比实验,GC-MS和GC-ECD系统分析精度分别为0.23%和0.88%.观测期间HCFC-142b浓度变化范围约为21×10-12～355×10-12;通过独立样本T检验P>0.05,表明两种方法获得的HCFC-142b浓度数据无显著性差异;对两套系统观测浓度数据的差值分析表明,造成两套系统观测浓度间微小差别的主要因素是空气样品时间分辨率和观测精度.利用局部近似回归法进行本底值筛分,GC-MS和GC-ECD法获得的本底浓度均值差、中值差、25和75百分位数值差均优于系统观测精度.两种方法捕获HCFC-142b污染过程一致,污染浓度均具有夏秋高冬低的特点;两种方法观测HCFC-142b污染浓度的年变化趋势一致.     

Interrupted aortic arch type A with 22q11 deletion: prenatal detection of an unusual association

Interrupted aortic arch is a rare, severe congenital heart defect subdivided into three types, A, B and C, according to the site of interruption. Type C is by far the least common form of interrupted aortic arch (less than 5% of cases), type A is commonly an isolated defect whereas type B is frequently associated with 22q11 deletion. Differentiation of interrupted aortic arch type A from type B by prenatal echocardiography is possible but difficult; it needs to be done on the basis of observation of reliable morphological indicators which point to the correct diagnosis. Here we report the first case of prenatal diagnosis of interrupted aortic arch type A associated with 22q11 deletion. The significance of this association is not yet clear, since 22q11 genes mainly affect embryonic cardiovascular morphogenesis of those regions whose development is critically dependent on neural crest cell migration and function, affected in type B defect but not in type A. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic impact measurement and evaluation of China's investment in geological exploration: The empirical analysis based on the data from 1999 to 2009

With the continued growth in demand for mineral resources and China's efforts in increasing investment in geological prospecting, economic impact evaluation of geological exploration becomes a research hotspot.     

Input–output analysis in an oil-rich economy: The case of Azerbaijan

This paper aims to provide empirical research to identify the linkages between final demand–total output, final demand–total supply, value-added ratios and prices, and also to analyze total factor productivity growth using input–output framework for 25 sectors. Studying the input–output tables for 2001 and 2006, the research estimates impact and response multipliers of non-oil sectors, as well as non-oil trading sectors. The results are important from the view of development of non-oil trading sectors and diversification of the economy in order to avoid the “resource curse”.     

The view from below: ‘lock-in’ and local procurement in the African gold mining sector

Through linkage creation, commodity extraction has the capacity to support local industrial production and capabilities building. Drawing on the experience of supplying inputs into the East African gold mining industry, this paper examines the constraints experienced by local suppliers arising from the purchasing procedures of large mining corporations and specialist construction companies contracted to construct these mines. Lead firms become locked-in to particular ways of working which minimise the opportunities that local suppliers have in providing products and services. After reviewing the situation for local mining suppliers in East Africa, the paper examines ways in which lead firms, the suppliers themselves and others (governments and industry associations) can better support local supplier involvement.     

A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?

This paper develops a stylized supply–demand model for a mineral/nonrenewable commodity. It embodies important distinctions between short-run and long-run mineral supply and the derived demand for minerals as intermediate goods in production sectors with differing intensities of use. This framework is used to address the question: under what conditions might one expect to observe super cycles (i.e. cycles with a period of 20–70 years) in minerals prices? A plausible time path for GDP$GDP$ growth and the structural transformation that accompanies economic development in an emerging region is specified. Using these drivers and reasonable supply and demand parameters, price dynamics are simulated. The result is an asymmetric price cycle with a peak price that is about 250% above trend and an expansion phase that lasts for about 20 years. Thus, this simple model is capable of producing a single cycle with a frequency and amplitude in the range estimated in the empirical literature on super cycles. As other regions reach the development ‘take-off' phase, additional super cycles should emerge.