Economic impact measurement and evaluation of China's investment in geological exploration: The empirical analysis based on the data from 1999 to 2009

With the continued growth in demand for mineral resources and China's efforts in increasing investment in geological prospecting, economic impact evaluation of geological exploration becomes a research hotspot.     

Statistical considerations of progressive value and risk in mineral exploration

Financial markets recognise maximisation of expected value (E), in an essentially risk-neutral context, as the main corporate financial objective of private enterprise. This may be valid for large, integrated mining companies. Yet, most junior and middle-size exploration companies behave in a risk-averse fashion when making decisions about progressively more expensive exploration programs. From their perspective, a potential increase in expected value from either an increase in target value or related probability of discovery, or both, may not be a sufficient incentive to embark in an exploration programme if the resultant increase in expected value is accompanied by a significant increase in possible maximum loss. Risk-averse explorers may be unwilling to bear larger, albeit less probable losses, when the cost of successive exploration programmes is taken into account. The paper provides a practical methodology for such explorers to optimise the decision whether to progress to the next stage of exploration or to farm out a risky project. It uses a decision-tree model incorporating the effectiveness of the proposed exploration programme, the explorer's risk tolerance and related utility values and the probability distribution of the possible value of the exploration target.     

Prenatal diagnosis of jumping translocation involving chromosome 22 with ultrasonographic findings

We report on the prenatal diagnosis and ultrasonographic findings of a second-trimester fetus with jumping translocation involving chromosome 22. A 28-year-old gravida 2, partus 1, Turkish woman was referred for genetic counselling and ultrasonographic examination at 18 weeks' gestation because of a high risk of trisomy 21 in triple test. Prenatal ultrasonography showed tetralogy of Fallot with a diverticular dilatation of the pulmonary artery, flattened brow, complete absence of the right upper limb, hypospadias, oligodactyly (three digits) in left hand and in both feet, and hyperechogenic abdominal foci. Amniocentesis revealed a karyotype of 46,XY[4]/46,XY,−8,+ der(8),t(8;22)(q24.3;q11.21)[2]/45, XY,−22,−8,+ der(8)t(8;22)(q24.3;q11.21)[22]/45,XY,−22,−5,+ der(5)t(5;22)(q35.3;q11.21)[44]. A C-banding and FISH study with a specific centromeric probe (D14Z1/D22Z1) for chromosome 22 was made. In our case, partial monosomy for the regions 22q11.21→22pter, 8q24.3→8qter and 5q35.3→5qter may partially explain the fetal malformations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Partial trisomy 22q12→qter in prenatal diagnosis

Ultrasound examination of a 27-year-old primigravida at 26 weeks' gestation revealed fetal growth retardation, malformation of the ventricular septum, and a neck fold. Chromosome analysis of the amniotic fluid showed an abnormal 46,XY karyotype with an obvious meta-centric chromosome 17. Chromosome analysis of the mother revealed a balanced t (17;22) (p13;q12) translocation. The fetus thus has a rare familial duplication 22q12→qter. Eight live-born and severely malformed infants with this duplication have been reported in the literature.     

长光路FTIR研究HCFC22大气光化学反应

用长光路ＦＴＩＲ技术模拟研究氟里昂替代物ＨＣＦＣ２２（ＣＨＣ１Ｆ２）在对流层中的光化学反应，氯原子作反应的引发剂．ＨＣＦＣ２２在对流层中的主要含氟光解产物为ＣＯＦ２，讨论了有关反应机理，并对ＨＣＦＣ２２的环境影响和工业应用前景进行了评价。     

Assessment of risks posed by chemical industries—application of a new computer automated tool -III

The paper describes the application of a new computer automated tool, developed by us, in the risk analysis of a typical chemical industry engaged in the manufacture of linear alkyl benzene. Using the tool—a comprehensive software package -III (MAXimum CREDible accident analysis)—nine different scenarios, one for each storage unit, have been studied. It is observed that the accident scenario for chlorine (instantaneous release followed by dispersion) leads to the largest area-under-lethal-impact, while the accident scenario for propylene (CVCE followed by fireball) forecasts the most intense damage per unit area. The accidents involving propylene, benzene, and fuel oil have a high possibility of causing domino/secondary accidents as their destructive impacts (shock waves, heat load) would envelope other storage and process units.Besides demonstrating the utilizability of -III, this study also focuses attention on the need to bestow greater effort towards risk assessment/crisis management. The authors hope that the study will highlight the severity of the risk posed by the industry and thus generate safety consciousness among plant managers. The study may also help in developing accident-prevention strategies and the installation of damage control devices.     

Steel consumption and economic growth in Korea: Long-term and short-term evidence

This paper examines the long-term and short-term causal relationships between steel consumption and economic activity in Korea between 1975 and 2008 using vector error correction and vector autoregression models. This study disaggregates steel products and steel-consuming industries because the consumption of a specific steel product is closely linked to the output of the corresponding industry. This approach can provide a clear and reliable causal relationship between variable pairs. The results show that total steel consumption and GDP have a long-term equilibrium relationship, running from GDP to total steel consumption. However, a long-term bi-directional causal relationship exists between flat products consumption and the manufacturing GDP. Flat products consumption also demonstrates the long-term relationships between steel-consuming industries, such as automobile, shipbuilding, and fabricated metal product, but causal directions are mixed, depending on variable pairs. These results imply that the reciprocal growth between these industries has contributed to the robust competitiveness of Korean manufacturing. Because Korea has maintained its export-oriented industrial policy based on manufacturing, the steel and steel-consuming industries are expected to play a significant role in economic growth far into the future.     

Iron ore spot price volatility and change in forward pricing mechanism

To examine the impact of the change in forward pricing mechanism on the volatility of iron ore spot prices, we model the iron ore daily price of Platts IODEX from October 7, 2008 to September 21, 2012. The identified iron ore spot price tends to be less volatile after the introduction of quarterly pricing mechanism. Our main approaches are as follows: (i) to decompose the spot price of Platts IODEX into two subsamples and relate the result of the structural break to the date of the switch in the iron ore forward pricing mechanism; (ii) to apply the EGARCH (1, 1) model to simultaneously capture the long memory and the asymmetric effect on the volatility of the iron ore spot price; and (iii) to delineate the news impact curve to further interpret the asymmetric effect.