Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

Resolution and Analysis of Spatial Variations and Patterns in an Urban Lake with Rapid Profiling Instrumentation

Rapid response vertical profiling instrumentation was used to document spatial variability and patterns in a small urban lake, Onondaga Lake, associated with multiple drivers. Paired profiles of temperature, specific conductance (SC), turbidity (T_n), fluorometric chlorophyll a (Chl_f), and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^?) were collected at >30 fixed locations (a “gridding”) weekly, over the spring to fall interval of several years. These gridding data are analyzed (1) to characterize phytoplankton (Chl_f) patchiness in the lake's upper waters, (2) to establish the representativeness of a single long‐term site for monitoring lake‐wide conditions, and (3) to resolve spatial patterns of multiple tracers imparted by buoyancy effects of inflows. Multiple buoyancy signatures were resolved, including overflows from less dense inflows, and interflows to metalimnetic depths and underflows to the bottom from the plunging of more dense inputs. Three different metrics had utility as tracers in depicting the buoyancy signatures as follows: (1) SC, for salinity‐enriched tributaries and the more dilute river that receives the lake's outflow, (2) T_n, for the tributaries during runoff events, and (3) NO₃^?, for the effluent of a domestic waste treatment facility and from the addition of NO₃^? solution to control methyl mercury. The plunging inflow phenomenon, which frequently prevailed, has important management implications.     

Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine,Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest1

Merten, Eric C., Nathaniel A. Hemstad, Randall K. Kolka, Raymond M. Newman, Elon S. Verry, and Bruce Vondracek, 2010. Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine, Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 733-743. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00445.x Abstract: We investigated the recovery of sediment characteristics in four moraine, headwater streams in north-central Minnesota after forest harvest. We examined changes in fine sediment levels from 1997 (preharvest) to 2007 (10 years postharvest) at study plots with upland clear felling and riparian thinning, using canopy cover, proportion of unstable banks, surficial fine substrates, residual pool depth, and streambed depth of refusal as response variables. Basin-scale year effects were significant (p < 0.001) for all responses when evaluated by repeated-measures ANOVAs. Throughout the study area, unstable banks increased for several years postharvest, coinciding with an increase in windthrow and fine sediment. Increased unstable banks may have been caused by forest harvest equipment, increased windthrow and exposure of rootwads, or increased discharge and bank scour. Fine sediment in the channels did not recover by summer 2007, even though canopy cover and unstable banks had returned to 1997 levels. After several storm events in fall 2007, 10 years after the initial sediment input, fine sediment was flushed from the channels and returned to 1997 levels. Although our study design did not discern the source of the initial sediment inputs (e.g., forest harvest, road crossings, other natural causes), we have shown that moraine, headwater streams can require an extended period (up to 10 years) and enabling event (e.g., high storm flows) to recover from large inputs of fine sediment.     

Hydrological Controls and Freshening in Meromictic Soap Lake,Washington, 1939-20021

Kallis, Jahn, Leo Bodensteiner, and Anthony Gabriel, 2010. Hydrological Controls and Freshening in Meromictic Soap Lake, Washington, 1939-2002. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 744-756. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00446.x Abstract: The chemically stratified layer of naturally formed meromictic lakes exhibits unusual and often extreme physical and chemical conditions that have resulted in the evolution of uniquely adapted species. The Columbia Basin Irrigation Project appears to have had a marked effect on the hydrology of Soap Lake, a meromictic lake in the Grand Coulee of central Washington. The relation of hydrology to salinity was assessed by analyzing water budgets before and after the introduction of the irrigation project. Before irrigation, water gains were balanced by losses; after irrigation began groundwater gains approximately doubled. To manage lake levels and reduce groundwater influx, wells were installed to intercept groundwater. Although the hydrological cycle has been restored to pre-irrigation conditions, the meromictic character of the lake continues to change. Interception wells remove 10 to 16 Mm³ of groundwater annually, but influx continues based on change in the monimolimnion. From 1958 to 2003 the chemocline descended 1.1 m and the volume of the monimolimnion from 698,000 m³ to 114,000 m³. Annual loss of volume is occurring at a rate of 1.9% since 1958. Although groundwater interception wells are maintaining the volume of the entire lake, the recession of the chemocline indicates that conditions that have maintained meromixis at Soap Lake are currently not in equilibrium.     

An Aquifer Classification System and Geographical Information System-Based Analysis Tool for Watershed Managers in the Western U.S.1

Payne, Scott M. and William W. Woessner, 2010. An Aquifer Classification System and Geographical Information System-Based Analysis Tool for Watershed Managers in the Western U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1003-1023. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00472.x Abstract: Aquifers and groundwater systems can be classified using a variety of independent methods to characterize geologic and hydraulic properties, the degree of connection with surface water, and geochemical conditions. In light of a growing global demand for water, an approach for classifying groundwater systems at the watershed scale is needed. A comprehensive classification system is proposed that combines recognized methods and new approaches. The purpose of classification is to provide groundwater professionals, policy makers, and watershed managers with a widely applicable and repeatable system that reduces sometimes cumbersome complex databases and analyzes to straightforward terminology and graphical representations. The proposed classification system uses basin geology, aquifer productivity, water quality, and the degree of groundwater/surface water connection as classification criteria. The approach is based on literature values, reference databases, and fundamental hydrologic and hydrogeologic principles. The proposed classification system treats dataset completeness as a variable and includes a tiered assessment protocol that depends on the quality and quantity of data. In addition, it assembles and catalogs groundwater information using a consistent set of nomenclature. It is designed to analyze and display results using Geographical Information System mapping tools.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

How Green is Too Green? Public Opinion of What Constitutes Undesirable Algae Levels in Streams1

Abstract: A public opinion survey was carried out in Montana to ascertain if the public identifies a level of benthic (bottom‐attached) river and stream algae that is undesirable for recreation. The survey had two parts; an On‐River survey and a By‐Mail survey. The On‐River survey was conducted via 44 trips randomly scheduled throughout the state during which recreators were interviewed in‐person at the stream. Selection of stream segments and survey dates/times was based on known, statewide recreational use patterns. By‐Mail survey forms were sent to 2,000 individuals randomly selected from Montana’s Centralized Voter File (CVF) available from the Montana Secretary of State. The CVF was current through 2004 and represented over 85% of the state’s eligible voting population. In both surveys, eight randomly ordered photographs depicting varying levels of stream benthic algae were presented, and participants were asked if the algae level shown was desirable or undesirable for recreation. Survey form design, selection of photographs, and pretesting followed acceptable protocols that limited unintentional bias through survey execution. There were 433 returned forms (389 complete) for the By‐Mail survey, while the On‐River survey documented 563 interviews. In both surveys, as benthic algal chlorophyll a (Chl a) levels increased, desirability for recreation decreased. (Other measures of benthic algae biomass are presented as well.) For the public majority, mean benthic Chl a levels ≥200 mg/m² were determined to be undesirable for recreation, whereas mean levels ≤150 mg Chl a/m² were found to be desirable. Error rates were within the survey’s statistical design criteria (≤5%). The largest potential error source was nonresponse in the By‐Mail survey; however, the population represented by nonrespondents would have to exhibit profoundly different perceptions of river and stream algae to meaningfully alter the results. Results support earlier work in the literature suggesting 150 mg Chl a/m² represents a benthic algae nuisance threshold.     

Development and Use of a Sedimentation Risk Index for Unpaved Road‐Stream Crossings in the Choctawhatchee Watershed1

Abstract: Unpaved road‐stream crossings increase sediment yields in streams and alter channel morphology and stability. Before restoration and sedimentation reduction strategies can be implemented, a priority listing of unpaved road‐stream crossings must be created. The objectives of this study were to develop a sedimentation risk index (SRI) for unpaved road‐stream crossings and to prioritize 125 sites in the Choctawhatchee watershed (southeastern Alabama) using this model. Field surveys involved qualitative and quantitative observations of 73 metrics related to waterway conditions, crossing structures, road approaches, and roadside soil erosion. The road‐stream crossing risk analyses involved elimination of candidate metrics based on redundancy, skewness, lack of data, professional judgment, lack of nonzero values, unbalanced box plots, and limited ranges of values. A final selection of 12 metrics formed the SRI and weighed factors involving soil erodibility, road sedimentation abatement features, and stream morphology alteration. The SRI was organized into narrative categories (excellent, good, fair, poor, and very poor) based on the distribution of scores. No excellent sites (scores ≥55) were found in this study, 17 (20.7%) were good (low sedimentation risk), 37 (45.1%) were fair (moderate sedimentation risk), 26 (31.7%) were poor (high sedimentation risk), and two (2.5%) were very poor (high sedimentation risk). There was no significant difference in SRI scores among crossing structure type (round culverts, box culverts, and bridges) (H = 4.31, df = 2, p = 0.058). A future study of the Choctawhatchee watershed involving the same study sites could assess the success of restoration plans and activities based on site score improvement or decline.     

Conversion of a Missouri River Dam and Reservoir to a Sustainable System: Sediment Management1

Abstract: A present and future challenge for water resources engineers is to extend the useful life of our dams and reservoirs. Ongoing reservoir sedimentation in impoundments must be addressed; sedimentation in many reservoirs already limits project benefits and effective project life. Sustainability requires that incoming sediment be moved downstream past the impounding dam. We use Lewis and Clark Lake, the most downstream of the six Missouri River main stem reservoirs, to demonstrate how a reservoir in advanced stages of its project life could be converted to a sustainable system with local benefits exceeding costs by a factor of 1.5. Full consideration of benefits would further enhance project justification. The proposed strategy involves four phases that will take about 50 years to complete. Cost estimates for this potential project range from the quantitative to the plausible, but it is clear that the results justify a full engineering, environmental, and economic study of this model project. If implemented, the project will create scientific knowledge and develop technologies useful for achieving sustainability at many other reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin and beyond.