上海霾气候数据序列重建及其时空特征

利用上海11个气象站点1960～2008年日均相对湿度、能见度以及天气现象资料,重建了上海近50a霾气候数据序列,并从时间和空间两个方面分析了上海霾日数的气候特征和变化规律。结果表明,上海霾气候数据序列重建值与报表记录值之间变化形态存在着较好的一致性,重建值较记录值偏高。1960～2008年,上海霾日数以9.7d/10a的线性趋势显著增加,2002年以后霾日数总体上呈减少趋势。上海多年平均霾日数以冬季最多而夏季最少。近50a,上海霾日数呈现出西南部最多-市区较多-东北和东南部最少的空间分布,霾日数的空间变化趋势则表现为西南部增加较多而东部增加较少。1981～2008年,上海霾日数在西部和南部都增加,东部则减少。     

地表水水质自动监测数据技术评估

对地表水水质自动监测站取水口直接采样和模拟水样,用自动监测和实验室方法监测相应的指标,对两者的监测结果进行比较,研究和分析两者之间差异的原因,评估自动监测数据,提出建议。     

Shifting Baselines and The Extinction of The Caribbean Monk Seal

The recent extnction of the Caribbean monk seal Monachus tropicalis has been considered an example of a human‐caused extinction in the marine environment, and this species was considered a driver of the changes that have occurred in the structure of Caribbean coral reef ecosystems since colonial times. I searched archaeological records, historical data, and geographic names (used as a proxy of the presence of seals) and evaluated the use and quality of these data to conclude that since prehistoric times the Caribbean monk seal was always rare and vulnerable to human predation. This finding supports the hypothesis that in AD 1500, the Caribbean monk seal persisted as a small fragmented population in which individuals were confined to small keys, banks, or isolated islands in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This hypothesis is contrary to the assumption that the species was widespread and abundant historically. The theory that the main driver of monk seal extinction was harvesting for its oil for use in the sugar cane industry of Jamaica during the 18th century is based primarily on anecdotal information and is overemphasized in the literature. An analysis of reported human encounters with this species indicates monk seal harvest was an occasional activity, rather than an ongoing enterprise. Nevertheless, given the rarity of this species and its restricted distribution, even small levels of hunting or specimen collecting must have contributed to its extinction, which was confirmed in the mid‐20th century. Some sources had been overlooked or only partially reviewed, others misinterpreted, and a considerable amount of anecdotal information had been uncritically used. Critical examination of archaeological and historical records is required to infer accurate estimations of the historical abundance of a species. In reconstructing the past to address the shifting baseline syndrome, it is important to avoid selecting evidence to confirm modern prejudices. Puntos de Referencia Cambiantes y la Extinción de la Foca Monje Caribeña     

采煤塌陷地积水对土壤氮素矿化过程的影响

煤炭开采导致大面积的土地塌陷,使大量耕地出现常年积水或季节性积水,对塌陷地土壤氮素矿化过程产生一定影响。采集了某矿采煤塌陷地土壤样品,进行好气和淹水培养条件下间歇淋洗培养实验,研究了塌陷地积水对土壤氮素矿化过程的影响。经过62d的培养,40d左右氮素的矿化过程趋于稳定,淹水培养条件下土壤氮素最终累积矿化量为68.99mg/kg,约为好气培养条件的10倍,且淹水培养条件下土壤氮素矿化势可达69.472mg/kg,均矿化速率为5.210mg/(kg·d),说明淹水对土壤氮素矿化过程有显著的促进作用。将实验所得累积矿化量分别代入简单指数模型及双因子指数模型进行拟合,发现简单指数模型能有效模拟好气和淹水培养条件下土壤氮素矿化过程,并获得了2种培养条件下土壤氮素矿化过程的模型参数。     

Citizen science networks in natural history and the collective validation of biodiversity data

Biodiversity data are in increasing demand to inform policy and management. A substantial portion of these data is generated in citizen science networks. To ensure the quality of biodiversity data, standards and criteria for validation have been put in place. We used interviews and document analysis from the United Kingdom and The Netherlands to examine how data validation serves as a point of connection between the diverse people and practices in natural history citizen science networks. We found that rather than a unidirectional imposition of standards, validation was performed collectively. Specifically, it was enacted in ongoing circulations of biodiversity records between recorders and validators as they jointly negotiated the biodiversity that was observed and the validity of the records. These collective validation practices contributed to the citizen science character or natural history networks and tied these networks together. However, when biodiversity records were included in biodiversity‐information initiatives on different policy levels and scales, the circulation of records diminished. These initiatives took on a more extractive mode of data use. Validation ceased to be collective with important consequences for the natural history networks involved and citizen science more generally.     

基于人工蜂群算法与BP神经网络的水质评价模型

针对BP网络水质评价模型的不足,引入人工蜂群(ABC)算法,将求解BP神经网络各层权值、阀值的过程转化为蜜蜂寻找最佳蜜源的过程,提出了一种新的结合人工蜂群算法的BP网络水质评价方法(ABC-BP)。并以2000—2006年渭河监测断面的10组实测数据作为测试样本对其水质进行了评价,实验结果表明该方法得到的水质评价结果准确,并具有很强的稳定性和鲁棒性。     

复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因结构敏感性及预防对策研究

简要回顾现有复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因理论存在的局限性,根据大量统计资料和经验总结构建事故成因理论的缺陷。该研究试图从分析和推理入手,根据复杂社会技术系统运行机制及事故成因结构敏感性特征,探索由于新技术快速普及应用而不断涌现的复杂社会技术系统的失效机制及事故的成因理论;解释复杂社会技术系统安全事故的严重程度差异性、时间方向性及情境依赖性;为任何因新技术普及应用而产生的人造系统的安全分析及事故预防提供理论和方法支撑。     

HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC RESEARCH IN MOUNTAIN RWERS1

ABSTRACT: Although our current (1990) knowledge of hydrologic and hydraulic processes is based on many years of study, there are river environments where these processes are complex and poorly understood. One of these environments is in mountainous areas, which cover about 25 percent of the United States. Use of conventional hydrologic and hydraulic techniques in mountain-river environments may produce erroneous results and interpretations in a wide spectrum of water-resources investigations. An ongoing U.S. Geological Survey research project is being conducted to improve the understanding of hydrologic and hydraulic processes of mountainous areas and to improve the results of subsequent hydrologic investigations. Future hydrologic and hydraulic research needs in mountainous areas are identified.     

EFFECTS OF PLACER MINING DISCHARGE ON HEALTH AND FOOD OF ARCTIC GRAYLING1

ABSTRACT: During the summers of 1982, 1983, and 1985, we assessed the effects of placer mining sedimentation on Arctic grayling, Thymallus arcticus, in the headwaters of Birch Creek, northeast of Fairbanks, Alaska. We compared differences between two streams (one that was undisturbed and one with mining activity upstream) near the confluence. Studies of caged fish demonstrated that, if grayling could not escape from streams carrying mining sediments, they would either die at high rates (sac fry) or suffer gill damage, starvation, and slowed maturation (age-O fingerlings and age-2 juveniles). Indirect effects of sedimentation, through loss of summer habitat for feeding and reproduction, may more severely affect grayling populations than the direct effects of sedimentation on the health and survival of individual fish.     

IDENTIFICATION OF DISSOLVED-CONSTITUENT SOURCES IN MINE-SITE GROUND WATER USING BATCH MIXING1

ABSTRACT: Batch-mixing experiments were used to help identify lithologic and mineralogic sources of increased concentrations of dissolved solids in water affected by surface coal mining in northwestern Colorado. Ten overburden core samples were analyzed for mineral composition and mixed with distilled water for 90 days until mineral-water equilibrium was reached. Between one day and 90 days after initial contact, specific conductance in the sample mixtures had a median increase of 306 percent. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 200 to 8,700 mg/L in water samples extracted from the mixtures after 90 days. Mass. balance simulations were conducted using the geochemical models BALANCE and WATEQF to quantify mineral-water interactions occurring in five selected sample mixtures and in water collected from a spring at a reclaimed mine site. The spring water is affected by mineral-water interactions occurring in all of the lithologic units comprising the overburden. Results of the simulations indicate that oxidation of pyrite, dissolution of dolomite, gypsum, and epsomite, and cation-exchange reactions are the primary mineral-water interactions occurring in the overburden. Three lithologic units in the overburden (a coal, a sandstone, and a shale) probably contribute most of the dissolved solids to the spring water. Water sample extracts from mixtures using core from these three units accounted for 85 percent of the total dissolved solids in the 10 sample extracts. Other lithologic units in the overburden probably contribute smaller quantities of dissolved solids to the spring water.