“Horizontal” and “vertical” diffusion: The cumulative influence of Impact and Benefit Agreements (IBAs) on mining policy-production in New Caledonia

The scale, duration and intensity of conflicts over mineral resources vary greatly. However, they always involve, in varying proportions, the triad stakeholder model—corporation, state, community—each element of which is internally heterogeneous. Increasingly, new players are entering the scene: international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), environmental grassroots groups, indigenous transnational networks, international aid and development agencies. Nevertheless, conflicts and arrangements around access to and control over mineral resources can take the apparent form of dyadic relationships between companies and local communities, resulting in negotiated company-community agreements, often called “Impact and Benefit Agreements” (IBAs). In our analysis, local agreements on mineral resource governance are seen as building blocks in the production of mining policy “from below”, even though they seem at first sight to exclude the state. This paper argues that these agreements, and the negotiations surrounding them, inform debates around mining through both “horizontal diffusion” (influence on other localities facing similar situations) and “vertical diffusion” (influence on policy design and implementation at upper political and administrative levels). This diffusion may occur in a “positive” sense, effecting further change in line with the intent of the original agreement, or in a “negative” one, actually making substantive change less likely, whether at a community or policy level. We build this argument through two case studies from New Caledonia, in the south-west Pacific, where mining has long been a key issue, especially in the current context of “negotiated decolonization” launched by the 1998 Nouméa Accord.     

2013—2016年74城市臭氧浓度变化特征

利用2013—2016年74城市臭氧（O₃）监测数据，综合探讨了全国74城市O₃浓度时空变化特征、变化趋势。结果表明：2013—2016年，74城市O₃-8 h各百分位浓度总体呈上升趋势，且百分位较高区间O₃浓度逐年上升速率越快，O₃-8 h第95百分位浓度年增长5.3 μg/m³，其次是第90百分位；O₃区域性污染特征明显，京津冀及周边、长三角、珠三角O₃污染问题突出；74城市O₃浓度超标天数年增长3 d/城市，O₃污染呈明显日、季节变化特征，午后14：00—17：00达到小时浓度峰值，超标日主要集中于5—10月；O₃对环境空气质量综合指数贡献率逐年增加，北京、上海和广州O₃贡献率年增长分别为1.9%、1.1%和0.8%。     

Revealing life‐history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life‐history, and mating‐system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life‐history characteristics and the relative impact of different life‐history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N_ev) from genetic data () and formulated predictions for the impacts on N_ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N_ev. The comparison of effective‐size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N_ev) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N_ev). Heritability of female RS also affected N_ev; (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N_ev). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting , namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life‐history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting predictions with genetic measurements, is a general, applicable strategy that can be used to inform conservation practice.     

Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?

Solar geoengineering has received increasing attention as an option to temporarily stabilize global temperatures. A key concern is that heterogeneous preferences over the optimal amount of cooling combined with low deployment costs may allow the country with the strongest incentive for cooling, the so-called free-driver, to impose a substantial externality on the rest of the world. We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problem and tilt the game in favour of international cooperation. Our game-theoretical model of countries with asymmetric preferences allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering. We find that counter-geoengineering prevents the free-driver outcome, but not always with benign effects. The presence of counter-geoengineering leads to either a climate clash where countries engage in a non-cooperative escalation of opposing climate interventions (negative welfare effect), a moratorium treaty where countries commit to abstain from either type of climate intervention (indeterminate welfare effect), or cooperative deployment of solar geoengineering (positive welfare effect). We show that the outcome depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry in temperature preferences between countries.