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71.
三重属性的承载力约束下中国水资源利用效率动态演进特征分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
基于水资源"资源禀赋-社会经济-生态环境"三重属性约束建立承载力测算模型,创新性地将水资源承载力作为投入要素,构建SFA效率测算模型,运用2003~2017年中国31个省份面板数据,应用Kernel密度估计和Markov链对水资源使用效率的动态演进特征进行分析.结果表明:①中国大部分省份水资源承载力在稳步提升,西北、华北、东北和华中地区呈较低水平,西南、华南等地区呈较高水平;②中国所有省份水资源利用效率均保持稳定增长,西部地区比中、东部地区增长幅度更大,整体呈现东高西低,南高北低的空间态势;③中国水资源利用效率动态演进存在多极化和趋同化现象,部分省份存在梯度效应,同时具有俱乐部收敛特征,流动性差,马太效应凸显.为实现水资源、社会和环境的协调耦合,降低区域间资源使用效率差异,提升水资源利用效率,提出需要充分考虑水资源承载力,统筹全国及区域水资源供需协调发展战略,构建水权交易市场等建议. 相似文献
72.
L. E. M. Niers J. A. M. Smeitink J. M. F. Trijbels R. C. A. Sengers A. J. M. Janssen L. P. van den Heuvel 《黑龙江环境通报》2001,21(10):871-880
NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase (complex I of the mitochondrial respiratory chain) deficiency is a severe disorder with an often early fatal outcome. Prenatal diagnosis for complex I defects currently relies mainly on biochemical assays of complex I in fetal tissues such as chorionic villi (CV), and is only in a minority of cases possible by means of mutational analysis of nuclear-encoded genes of complex I. We report on our experience to date with prenatal diagnosis in pregnancies at risk for complex I deficiency. We measured complex I activity in native CV and/or cultured CV in 23 pregnancies in 15 families. In accordance with the results of the investigations in CV, 15 children were born clinically unaffected. Two prenatally diagnosed unaffected fetuses and two prenatally diagnosed affected fetuses were lost prematurely with spontaneous or provoked abortions, respectively. Two affected children were born (prenatally found to be affected). In two pregnancies a discrepancy between native and cultured cells was found. We conclude that prenatal diagnosis for complex I deficiency can be reliably performed. Pitfalls were encountered in using cultured CV as a result of maternal cell contamination (MCC). Future research on pathogenic nuclear mutations underlying complex I deficiency will extend the possibilities for prenatal diagnosis at the molecular level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
73.
基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖流域平原区景观格局动态模拟预测 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
利用“3S”技术及CA-Markov模型,按照是否实施跨流域调水工程2种预案情况,以2005年为起始时刻,对新疆艾比湖流域平原区2020年景观格局进行模拟预测。结果显示:在调水工程未实施的情况下,2020年研究区的生态环境将进一步恶化,其突出表现为艾比湖湖泊水面将持续萎缩、裸露湖底盐漠面积进一步扩大,水资源短缺及生态环境恶化的结果将严重制约研究区社会经济的发展;在调水工程实施的情况下,2020年研究区内艾比湖湖泊水面将稳定增加至800 km^2以上、裸露湖底盐漠面积相应有所减少,生态环境恶化趋势得到改善,区域水资源短缺问题将有所缓解,可有效地促进研究区内社会经济的发展。 相似文献
74.
冯利华 《长江流域资源与环境》2002,(3)
结合 1998年长江流域的特大洪水 ,提出了洪水成因链的概念 ,分析了各个物理因子对江淮洪水的影响。指出影响江淮洪水的物理因子都是层层相接、环环相扣的 ,它们组成了一个互相联系、互为因果的洪水成因链。成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,导致成因链上各个因子的致洪理论都不能完全地自圆其说 ,因而也无法完全确定地用于洪水预测。只有深入探讨洪水成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,对它们进行全面综合的诊断分析 ,才能提高江淮洪水预测的准确率。 相似文献
75.
76.
Bettinetti R Croce V Galassi S Volta P 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2006,13(1):59-66
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.010
Background, Aims and Scope Although pp'DDT usage was strongly limited or banned in most parts of the world during the last three or four decades, the
parent compound, its homologues and their metabolites still occur at levels which might pose a risk for many ecosystem components.
A case of DDT pollution of industrial origin was discovered in 1996 in Lake Maggiore, the second largest (212 km2) and deepest
(370 m) lake in Italy, causing concern for wildlife and human health. The extensive monitoring of many biotic and abiotic
compartments which followed from 1998 in order to assess the pollution level and its trend in time, provided a great availability
of data referring to DDT contamination of the different fish species of the lake. In this study, the recent contamination
levels in selected fish species were compared to those measured in 1998 to evaluate the temporal pollution trend of the lake
and its natural recovery, given that no remediation measures were carried out on the contaminated soils and sediments in this
time span. Moreover, a modelling approach to test the equilibrium condition between water and pelagic fish species was used.
Analytical results of pp'DDT and pp'DDE concentrations in lake water were used as input data in the bioenergetic model by
Connolly & Pedersen (1988) to calculate concentrations in two fish species and to compare the predicted and the measured contamination.
Methods Sampling and analytical determination of DDT homologues in lake water: Five water sampling campaigns were carried out from
May 2002 to February 2004 in three sampling sites of Lake Maggiore. Suspended and dissolved pollutants were determined separately.
Quantitative DDT homologue analyses were performed by HRGC coupled with ECD detection by the external standard method. Single
water extracts were put together in correspondence with the stratification zones of the water column inferred on the basis
of the temperature profile to improve analytical sensitivity. Selection of fish data: Concentrations of DDT and DDE in fishes
were selected from recent literature (CIPAIS 2003, 2004). Bioaccumulation model: The bioenergetic model proposed by Connolly
& Pedersen (1988) was used to assess the bioaccumulation of pp'DDT and pp'DDE of Alosa fallax (landlocked shad) and Coregonus
spp. (whitefish), selected among the different species as representative of a secondary consumer level.
Results and Discussion The average concentrations of pp'DDT and pp'DDE in water to be used as input data in the bioenergetic model were obtained
considering all the concentrations measured at the three sampling stations in the epylimnion where the fish species considered
in this study spend most of their life. The resulting values were 0.05 and 0.16 ng/L for pp'DDT and pp'DDE, respectively.
Average measured pp'DDT and pp'DDE concentrations in landlocked shad were 0.81 +/- 0.39 and 1.69 +/- 0.71 mg/kg lipids, respectively,
and were 0.29 +/- 0.12 and 1.06 +/- 0.41 mg/kg lipids for the whitefish. Calculated and measured values turned out to be
in quite good agreement for pp'DDT, while measured pp'DDE concentrations were higher than expected on the basis of the bioenergetic
model in both species. Probably metabolic transformations of pp'DDT accumulated in fish tissues in the past are responsible
for the observed differences between calculated and expected pp'DDE concentrations in fish.
Conclusions Pelagic fishes of Lake Maggiore seem to maintain the DDT accumulated during their life time and the most efficient mechanism
responsible for the fish population recoveries is probably their generation changes; for this reason, equilibrium models cannot
be used until negligible pp'DDT concentrations are reached in fish tissues.
Recommendations and Outlook The limit proposed for pp'DDT in water by the EU Directive 2000/60, which will come in force in 2008, is 0.2 ng/L, four times
higher than the average concentration measured in Lake Maggiore waters. Nevertheless, concentrations measured in Lake Maggiore
fish were very close and sometimes exceeded the Maximum residue limits (MRLs) settled by the Italian legislation for foods
(0.1 mg/kg w.w. for fish containing 5–20% lipid). It seems, therefore, that the 'environmental quality standard' of 0.2 ng/L
cannot guarantee the suitability of fish for human consumption. 相似文献
77.
基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一. 相似文献
78.
资源循环利用基地的建设是破解城市固体废弃物“邻避效应”的创新道路,有助于新型城市功能区的建设,是推进资源循环利用的主要方式。以北京市朝阳区资源循环利用产业基地为例,研究其基地建设的优势基础及制约因素,通过探索基地建设模式,分析了基地建设的总体思路和重要举措,以期为其他地区资源循环利用基地建设提供经验。 相似文献
79.
80.
应急物资的高效快速配置是降低灾害损失和顺利实施应急救援的有力保障。应急逆向物流包括废旧物资的回收利用以及可重复利用物资的回收再利用,能起到缓解应急物资匮乏,减少环境污染的作用。本文根据随机Petri网理论,构建考虑逆向物流的应急物资配置模型,通过对同构于该模型的马尔可夫链进行仿真,求得各种状态的稳态概率,结合马尔可夫链性质对关键因素进行静态分析和动态分析;通过“雅安地震”的案例应用表明,当地震灾害发生时,此模型可以反映各因素对应急物资配置整体流程的影响,并通过数值变化趋势反映不同条件下应急物资配置的关键环节,可以为灾后救援和应急物资的利用提供理论支持。 相似文献