厦门某旱地土壤垂直剖面中重金属迁移规律及来源解析

采用ICP-MS和TIMS分析测定厦门市农业区某旱地土壤垂直剖面中8种重金属元素(V、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、Sr和Pb)含量及铅锶同位素组成,重点分析土壤剖面金属的纵向分层和淋失迁移特征.结果表明,除Sr外,其余重金属在大部分剖面深度中均未超过背景值,表明受外来源的影响较小. Sr在整个剖面的迁移系数均大于0,表明存在不同程度的富集; Zn和Co在近地表处富集; Cr、Ni和Cu在整个剖面中以亏损为主; V和Pb受外来活动的干扰小.淋洗迁移特征分析表明,Sr和Pb淋洗下移较活跃,其下移深度较大,但Pb下移深度低于Sr下移深度.因子分析表明,重金属主要为自然因子的输入,其次为农业活动和交通运输等复杂人为活动的输入.富集因子分析表明,Sr受外源不同程度影响.铅锶同位素组成分析表明,垂直剖面土壤中Pb主要来源于母质层,而Sr除来源于母质层外,还受到复杂人为源的影响,并已有向底层(30～70 cm)迁移的趋势.     

中国典型流域有机磷酸酯的污染特征与风险评估

有机磷酸酯（OPEs）作为溴代阻燃剂的替代品,在生产生活中被广泛使用,其环境污染和毒性效应受到广泛关注.梳理中国七大典型流域水体中OPEs的含量水平和分布特征,计算中国成人、青少年和儿童的OPEs日均饮水暴露量,对其健康风险进行评估,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法评价了结果的可靠性.检索整理了12种OPEs对水生生物的毒性效应浓度,构建物种敏感度分布（SSD）曲线,对生态风险进行评估.结果表明,低等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的第5百分位浓度为52.61 ng·L^-1;中等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的中位浓度为499.74 ng·L^-1,磷酸三氯乙酯（TCEP）、磷酸三乙酯（TEP）和磷酸三（1,3-二氯-2-丙基）酯（TDCP）为主要污染物;高等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的第95百分位浓度为1904.4 ng·L^-1,是其中等暴露水平的3.8倍,长江流域的ΣOPEs浓度最高.健康风险评估表明,不同人群通过饮用水暴露于OPEs的非致癌风险均在可接受范围内.磷酸三甲酯（TMP）、磷酸三异丁酯（TiBP）和TCEP是致癌风险的主要贡献者.生态风险评估结果表明,TCEP在高等暴露水平下存在中等生态风险;磷酸三正丁酯（TnBP）在中等暴露水平下存在中等生态风险,在高等暴露水平下,有较高生态风险;磷酸三苯酯（TPhP）在低中高3种暴露水平下的风险商均大于1,有较高生态风险,需要重点关注.     

VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets based on response surface model: A case study in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), VOC emission control has become a major concern in China. In response, emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies, but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_2.5 and ozone, and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation. Herein, we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_2.5 and ozone via a new response surface modeling (RSM) technique, achieving 50% computational cost savings of the quantification. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NO_x emission reduction level. If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered, there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets (160 µg/m³ for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile (MDA8-90%) ozone and 25 µg/m³ for the annual average of PM_2.5): a moderate VOC emission cap with <20% NOx emission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with >60% NO_x emission reductions. If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155 µg/m³, deep NO_x emission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD. Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions. If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn, MDA8-90% ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5 µg/m³, equaling the ozone benefits of 10% VOC emission reduction measures. The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in China.     

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological data often limits the direct empirical parameterization of all model parameters. Here we use a Bayesian inverse analysis approach to synthesize empirical data and ecological theory derived from published studies of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem (Takapoto Atoll, French Polynesia). We then use the estimates of flux magnitudes to parameterize probabilistic compartment models with two forms of heterotrophic consumption: (1) “bottom-up” donor-controlled heterotrophic consumption and (2) “top-down” mass-action heterotrophic consumption. We explore how the flux magnitudes affect the ecosystem's stability properties of resilience, reactivity, and resistance under both assumptions for heterotrophic consumption. The models suggest that the microbial uptake of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) regulates the long term rate of return to steady state following a temporary or pulse perturbation (resilience), and the cycling of carbon between abiotic pools and heterotrophic compartments regulates the short-term response (reactivity). In the bottom-up process model, the sensitivity of steady state masses following a sustained or press perturbation (resistance) is highest for the DOC pool following a sustained change to the microbial uptake rate of DOC. Further, a change in the microbial uptake of DOC propagates through the ecosystem and affects the steady state values of zooplankton. The analysis suggests that the food web is highly dependent on the recycling between the abiotic and biotic carbon pools, particularly as mediated by the microbial consumption of DOC, and this recycling determines how the ecosystem responds to perturbations.     

三江源区东西样带土壤侵蚀的

运用137Cs和210Pb_ex联合示踪技术,考察青藏高原三江源区东西样带137Cs和210Pb_ex面积浓度的背景值和变化特征,以及东西样带土壤侵蚀速率、分布特征和主要影响因素. 结果表明:①青藏高原三江源区东西样带137Cs和210Pb_ex面积浓度背景值分别为453～1 714和2 612～7 377 Bq/m2,137Cs和210Pb_ex背景值从西向东样带随海拔高度的变化差异明显.137Cs(x)和210Pb_ex(y)面积浓度的背景值区域分布呈显著线性相关,相关性关系式为y3.587　2x+1　463.4,R20.951　7.②长江源区沱沱河137Cs的示踪结果表明,以沱沱河为中心的长江源区是典型的风蚀区,年侵蚀速率2.5 t/(hm2·a),该区是青藏高原重要的沙尘暴源区之一.③黄河源区玛多典型坡面137Cs和210Pb_ex的示踪结果表明,近40年来,玛多畜牧业为主的人类活动造成的土壤扰动比自然因素的影响大.④玛沁东倾沟乡和军牧场的比较研究结果表明,玛沁东倾沟乡高山草甸的水土保持效果较好,而玛沁军牧场的畜牧业活动造成了地表土壤的强烈扰动.⑤玛沁军功镇典型水蚀地貌土壤剖面137Cs和210Pb_ex的结果表明,20世纪50—60年代,该区的极端暴雨事件导致了严重的水土流失,土壤剖面中出现137Cs和210Pb_ex的空白区. 植被破坏导致玛沁军功镇出现了严重水蚀,净侵蚀速率为8.0 t/(hm2·a).⑥近40年来,随着人类活动的加剧和全球气候变暖,导致青藏高原三江源区出现了沙尘暴的传输源地.      

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

地下水环境智慧监管技术集成与平台应用研究

针对"双源"地下水(地下水污染源和集中式地下水型饮用水源)环境监管需求,研发了一套集地下水污染在线监测预警、评价溯源、预测应急于一体的可视化技术集成与应用平台。该平台将物联网、地下水数值模拟、大数据、云计算等技术集成应用于环境监管,实现了工业园区地下水环境实时动态监测评价及预警、地下水污染路径溯源计算、地下水事故污染预测及应急支撑等网络服务与计算功能,并通过地下空间三维数字化处理,构建了"所见即所得"的三维虚拟现实界面,实现了对地下水环境的便捷、高效监管与决策。该平台兼容手机、平板电脑、台式计算机等固定和移动设备,可为"双源"地下水污染监控、管理和应急提供实时、高效的科技支撑。     

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

基于Monte Carlo法的城市雨水径流污染负荷模拟

为了评价流域雨水径流对受纳水体的污染程度和为城市雨水管理、受纳水体水质控制及规划提供依据,把以物理过程为基础的模拟特征融入到概率模型中,建立了城市雨水径流污染负荷的概率模型,并用Monte Carlo随机抽样法,对长期的径流污染负荷进行了模拟试验,得出流域径流污染负荷的分布特性及其特征值。以某市一小区的TP负荷为例进行了验证,模拟结果与实测结果较为一致。     

有机磷农药降解菌的紫外诱变育种

有机磷农药降解菌地衣芽孢杆菌（ Ｂａｃｉｌｌｕｓｌｉｃｈｅｎｉｆｏｒｍｉｓ） 经紫外线诱变后,筛选出突变菌株Ｐ１２ ．在θ＝３０℃,溶解氧ρ（Ｏ２） ＝２ ．５ ｍｇ Ｌ－１ 的培养条件下,３ ｄ 内对甲胺磷的降解率为８０ ．１％ ,比出发菌株提高了将近１０％的降解率．农药斜面连续传代１０ 次,降解活力保持稳定．